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Would you have chosen Sharpstown or Alief as suitable suburbs for your kids to go to school?

 

Back when my parents were buying their house, they chose Alief, I lived at the corner of Bellaire and Kirkwood and went from elementary through highschool in AISD.

 

When my parents chose that area, Alief was the premier school district in Houston, and I'm sure Sharpstown still had good schools as well. Now though?

 

As the suburbs age they age quickly, hell, when I was a senior at Elsik I saw guns being brought to basketball games, there were metal detectors and drug dogs patrolling the parking lots and sniffing at lockers.

 

If my parents knew in 1973 when they bought the house that I would be going to high school in that environment would they have chosen to live there? Likely not. I personally think that thanks to the diversity of the schools I am a better person for it, at least culturally. 

 

Anyway, your suburb might not change like Alief (and other suburbs) changed, but I think inside the city is as favorable a place to raise a child as any suburb, especially if you can trade the cost incurred for maintaining a car for the long commute for a private school. I can't find a more recent article, but if the prices for private school are still close to this, that's the cost of gasoline for one car a year...

 

http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/private-schools-cost-less-you-may-think

 

I think that the development of master planned communities like Cinco Ranch and First Colony are in part a response to what happened to Sharpstown and Alief.  In the end we may end up with a city with a wealthy core surronded by older suburbs where the urban poor live surrounded by wealthier master planned suburbs.  At least that appears to be where we are now.

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  • 10 months later...

New estimated population numbers for metropolitan areas released today:

 

Houston metro popultation as of July 1, 2013:  6,313,158

 

Increase over July 1, 2012:  137,692

 

Annual growth rate:  2.2%

 

The largest numerical growth of all metro areas.  The 16th fastest rate of growth among all metro areas.  The only metro area of any substantial size that grew at a faster percentage rate than Houston, was Austin, which grew at a 2.6% rate.

 

Houston's growth 2012-2013 population increase was comprised of:

Natural increase (births exceeding deaths):  56,334

International net migration:  25,504

Domestic net migration:  55,620

Edited by Houston19514
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New estimated population numbers for metropolitan areas released today:

 

Houston metro popultation as of July 1, 2013:  6,313,158

 

Increase over July 1, 2012:  137,692

 

Annual growth rate:  2.2%

 

The largest numerical growth of all metro areas.  The 16th fastest rate of growth among all metro areas.  The only metro area of any substantial size that grew at a faster percentage rate than Houston, was Austin, which grew at a 2.6% rate.

 

Houston's growth 2012-2013 population increase was comprised of:

Natural increase (births exceeding deaths):  56,334

International net migration:  25,504

Domestic net migration:  55,620

 

Heard on the radio today that Harris county is the fastest growing county in the country right now.

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^^  Correct.  Harris County had the country's largest numeric increase in population -- 82,890 from July 1, 2012 to July 1, 2013.   1.9%  That rate of growth is not even the fastest in the Houston metropolitan area.  In fact, Harris County's rate of growth was in a 4-way tie for 3rd fastest growth rate in the Houston metro area.

 

(Ft. Bend experienced 4.2% growth and Montgomery experienced 2.9% growth.)

Edited by Houston19514
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Thanks for putting those stats together! 25,000 international immigrants seems like a lot. Is that normal growth for a year? I don't have the last 10+ years but it would be interesting to see how that number has grown as Houston becomes recognized more internationally.

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Thanks for putting those stats together! 25,000 international immigrants seems like a lot. Is that normal growth for a year? I don't have the last 10+ years but it would be interesting to see how that number has grown as Houston becomes recognized more internationally.

 

Very quickly, I see that for the 3.25 years since the 2010 census, Houston's total net international migration was 80,394.

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Thanks for putting those stats together! 25,000 international immigrants seems like a lot. Is that normal growth for a year? I don't have the last 10+ years but it would be interesting to see how that number has grown as Houston becomes recognized more internationally.

Here you go: http://recenter.tamu.edu/data/pop/popm/cbsa26420.asp

The new numbers aren't posted yet, but give it a couple of weeks.

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Check out the Galveston-Houston Regional Forecast 2025. HTown is divided into zones. Zone 1 is DT and inner loop. Z2 is 610 to SH Tollway. Z3 is SH to GP. Z4 is GP to areas I am not familiar with. Z5 is even beyond that. According to projections, Z1 gains 200k, Z2 almost a million. Z3 1.3 mil. Z4 almost another million. Z5 like 200k. Thats a LOT more people in just 11 years. Is this a credible summation?

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Check out the Galveston-Houston Regional Forecast 2025. HTown is divided into zones. Zone 1 is DT and inner loop. Z2 is 610 to SH Tollway. Z3 is SH to GP. Z4 is GP to areas I am not familiar with. Z5 is even beyond that. According to projections, Z1 gains 200k, Z2 almost a million. Z3 1.3 mil. Z4 almost another million. Z5 like 200k. Thats a LOT more people in just 11 years. Is this a credible summation?

 

That seems high.  Houston is expected to grow fast but the projections that I've seen have been closer to 2.5 million additional in the next 15 years.  Your numbers add up to about 3.7 in 11 years.

 

It is interesting that projection calls for 200k of the increased 3.7 million inside the loop.  That would increase population inside the loop by about 40% and would still account for only about 6% of the new residents.

 

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Check out the Galveston-Houston Regional Forecast 2025. HTown is divided into zones. Zone 1 is DT and inner loop. Z2 is 610 to SH Tollway. Z3 is SH to GP. Z4 is GP to areas I am not familiar with. Z5 is even beyond that. According to projections, Z1 gains 200k, Z2 almost a million. Z3 1.3 mil. Z4 almost another million. Z5 like 200k. Thats a LOT more people in just 11 years. Is this a credible summation?

 

The forecast growth in the Galveston-Houston Regional Forecast 2025 was between the years 2000 and 2025... 25 years, not 11 years.  The total forecast growth was 2,991,000.   In the first 13 years of the 25-year forecast period, we grew by1,643,587.

 

To clarify, here is the forecasted growth for each of the Zones:

 

1. (Inside the Loop):  190,000

2. (Loop to Beltway): 856,000

3. (Beltway to Grand Parkway:  1,267,000

4. (Beyond Grand Parkway:  512,000

5. (Further beyond Grand Parkway - roughly beyond 35 miles out):  166,000

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  • 2 years later...

2016 metro area population estimates were released today:

 

July 1, 2016 population:  6,772,470

2015 population:  6,647,465

 

1-year increase:  125,005

Growth rate:  1.9%

 

July 1, 2010 population:  5,948,174

6-year increase:  824,296

Percentage growth since July 1, 2010:  13.9%

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  • 11 months later...

2017 metro area population estimates were released today:

 

July 1, 2017 population:  6,892,427

2016 population:   6,798,010 (they apparently revised the original estimate posted a year ago)

 

1 year increase:  94,417

Growth rate:  1.4%

 

July 1, 2010 population:  5,947,419

7-year increase:  944,253

Percentage growth since July 1, 2010:  15.9%

 

(No surprise that we had slower growth than the prior year. I suspect growth has since accelerated again.) We'll probably cross 7 million in the 2018 estimates.

Edited by Houston19514
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  • 1 year later...

2018 metro area population estimates were released today:

 

July 1, 2018 population:  6,997,384

2017 population:   6,905,695

2016 population:   6,812,260 (they apparently revised the original estimate posted a year ago)

 

1 year increase:  91,689

Growth rate:  1.3%

 

July 1, 2010 population:  5,947,409

8-year increase:  1,049,975

Percentage growth since July 1, 2010:  17.7%

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  • 10 months later...

Looking back at some of the ancient posts in this thread, like the one above from 2013 when Samagon talks about the decline in quality of schools in Alief...

 

Just as things change for the worse they can also change for the better. What's Alief like now in 2020 versus 2013, or 2003? I get the feeling it is poised to be a good location in the future. Same with the Chinatown part of Sharpstown. Remember that Spring Branch was not an especially desirable area 25 years ago but has become more attractive as time passed.

 

As for areas that will decline in the future, my money's on east montgomery county going downhill. Kingwood is proper is bourgeious and always will be, but beyond it towards Valley Ranch is either disappointing low-quality subdivisions, or endless trailer parks and rur-ban developments. Colony Ridge when built out is going to introduce a lot of low socioeconomic students to local schools and that's going to really conflict with the old school country white folk who live there. The county is waayy too conservative to put any money into infrastructure or services. It's going to be really ugly. As if it already wasn't, from an amenity point of view there are essentially zero parks, very little shopping or dining(can't keep a Sam's Club in business). I don't know why anyone would live out that way except that they really want a new build house for cheap and drive till you quality, instead of buying a house in an existing area.

 

The growth on Northeast side is going to shift away from 69 towards the Generation Park/Summerwood area, that's my crystal ball prediction.

Edited by zaphod
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  • 1 month later...

2019 metro area population estimates were released yesterday:

 

July 1, 2019 population:  7,066,141

July 1, 2018 population:  6,976,147

2017 population:   6,900,090

2016 population:   6,806,503 

(they revise each year's estimates)

 

1 year increase:  89,994

Growth rate:  1.3%

 

July 1, 2010 population:  5,947,236

9-year increase:  1,118,905

Percentage growth since July 1, 2010:  18.8%

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6 hours ago, Houston19514 said:

2019 metro area population estimates were released yesterday:

 

July 1, 2019 population:  7,066,141

July 1, 2018 population:  6,976,147

2017 population:   6,900,090

2016 population:   6,806,503 

(they revise each year's estimates)

 

1 year increase:  89,994

Growth rate:  1.3%

 

July 1, 2010 population:  5,947,236

9-year increase:  1,118,905

Percentage growth since July 1, 2010:  18.8%

 

We are still hanging on to the crown of percentage growth since 2010 among large metro areas at 19.5%, although DFW is close behind 19.0%. Those are whopping increases though. We should see a 20% growth between 2010 and 2020 censuses. Will take another 33% increase to pull even with the Chicago metro. 

 

We were white hot the first half of the decade and then cooled with the energy downturn. Now the oil industry is looking at another contraction and we have flood issues to deal with. May be awhile before we see soaring growth again.

 

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  • 1 year later...

 

2020 metro area population estimates were released recently:

July 1, 2020 population: 7,154,478

July 1, 2019 population:  7,063,400

July 1, 2018 population:  6,974,948

2017 population:   6,898,912

2016 population:   6,806,315 

(they revise each year's estimates)

 

1 year increase:  91,078

Growth rate:  1.3%

 

July 1, 2010 population:  5,920,485

10-year increase:  1,233,993

Percentage growth since July 1, 2010:  20.8%

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Interesting stuff from the Census Bureau's metro area-to-metro area migration flows: 2014-2018:

Top Metro Areas from which people moved to Houston:

  1. DFW   (18,059)
  2. Austin   (9,483)
  3. San Antonio   (8,396)
  4. New York City   (6,251)
  5. Beaumont   (5,111)
  6. Los Angeles   (5,082)
  7. Chicago   (4,629)
  8. Washington DC   (4,518)
  9. College Station   (4,449)
  10. Miami   (3,425)
  11. New Orleans   (3,065)
  12. McAllen   (2,891)
  13. Denver   (2,447)
  14. Corpus Christi   (2,270)
  15. El Paso   (2,231)
  16. Baton Rouge   (2,210)
  17. Killeen/Temple   (2,138)
  18. San Diego   (1,943)
  19. Atlanta   (1,926)
  20. San Francisco   (1,875)
  21. St Louis    (1,846)
  22. Orlando   (1,684)
  23. Lubbock  (1,671)
  24. Kansas City   (1,653)
  25. Tulsa OK   (1,603)

Top Metro Areas to which people moved from Houston:

  1. DFW   (16,232)
  2. Austin   (13,931)
  3. San Antonio   (7,935)
  4. College Station   (6,729)
  5. Beaumont   (4,845)
  6. Denver   (3,222)
  7. Los Angeles   (3,030)
  8. McAllen   (2,556)
  9. New York City   (2,544)
  10. Chicago   (2,518)
  11. Corpus Christi   (2,436)
  12. Atlanta   (2,187)
  13. New Orleans   (1,929)
  14. Phoenix   (1,902)
  15. Seattle   (1,852)
  16. Oklahoma City   (1,686)
  17. Washington DC   (1,639)
  18. San Francisco   (1,597)
  19. Waco   (1,587)
  20. Miami    (1,409)
  21. Colorado Springs   (1,379)
  22. Baton Rouge   (1,268)
  23. Killeen/Temple   (1,263)
  24. San Diego   (1,228)
  25. Midland   (1,215)

Top Metro Areas for net migration inflow to Houston:

  1. New York City   (3,707)
  2. Washington DC   (2,879)
  3. Chicago   (2,111)
  4. Los Angeles   (2,052)
  5. Miami   (2,016)
  6. DFW   (1,827)
  7. Orlando   (1,213)
  8. El Paso   (1,211)
  9. St Louis   (1,177)
  10. New Orleans   (1,136)
  11. Baton Rouge   (942)
  12. Killeen/Temple   (875)
  13. Gulfport/Biloxi   (860)
  14. Kansas City    (792)
  15. Tulsa   (770)
  16. Philadelphia   (757)
  17. Detroit   (750)
  18. San Juan, Puerto Rico   (719)
  19. San Diego   (715)
  20. Victoria, TX   (657)
  21. Baltimore   (643)
  22. Lake Charles   (628)
  23. Columbus, OH   (625)
  24. Memphis   (611)
  25. Texarkana   (599)

Top Metro Areas for net migration outflow from Houston:

  1. Austin   (4,448)
  2. College Station   (2,280)
  3. Colorado Springs   (852)
  4. Seattle   (842)
  5. Denver   (775)
  6. Lubbock   (676)
  7. Sherman/Denison   (669)
  8. Pensacola, FL   (617)
  9. San Jose, CA   (546)
  10. Grand Rapids, MI   (517)
  11. Longview, TX   (481)
  12. San Angelo, TX   (458)
  13. Boise City, ID   (433)
  14. Ithaca, NY   (419)
  15. Knoxville, TN   (362)
  16. Nashville   (354)
  17. Phoenix   (348)
  18. Indianapolis   (347)
  19. Jacksonville   (328)
  20. Fayetteville/Springdale/Rogers AR   (320)
  21. Charleston, SC   (304)
  22. Atlanta   (261)
  23. Wilmington, NC   (231)
  24. Fort Collins, CO   (213)
  25. Greensboro, NC   (212)
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16 hours ago, Houston19514 said:

Interesting stuff from the Census Bureau's metro area-to-metro area migration flows: 2014-2018:

)

Top Metro Areas for net migration outflow from Houston:

  1. Austin   (4,448)
  2. College Station   (2,280)
  3. Colorado Springs   (852)
  4. Seattle   (842)
  5. Denver   (775)
  6. Lubbock   (676)
  7. Sherman/Denison   (669)
  8. Pensacola, FL   (617)
  9. San Jose, CA   (546)
  10. Grand Rapids, MI   (517)
  11. Longview, TX   (481)
  12. San Angelo, TX   (458)
  13. Boise City, ID   (433)
  14. Ithaca, NY   (419)
  15. Knoxville, TN   (362)
  16. Nashville   (354)
  17. Phoenix   (348)
  18. Indianapolis   (347)
  19. Jacksonville   (328)
  20. Fayetteville/Springdale/Rogers AR   (320)
  21. Charleston, SC   (304)
  22. Atlanta   (261)
  23. Wilmington, NC   (231)
  24. Fort Collins, CO   (213)
  25. Greensboro, NC   (212)

I'm assuming a lot of this has to do with college? UT, A&M, Air Force Academy, CU, Texas Tech, so on and so forth? It seems like a low number for 4 years. 

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1 hour ago, Montrose1100 said:

I'm assuming a lot of this has to do with college? UT, A&M, Air Force Academy, CU, Texas Tech, so on and so forth? It seems like a low number for 4 years. 

It is 'net' so it would represent the ones that went to college in those places and didn't return to Houston (less the students from other locations that came to Houston after grad).

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