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Would you have chosen Sharpstown or Alief as suitable suburbs for your kids to go to school?

 

Back when my parents were buying their house, they chose Alief, I lived at the corner of Bellaire and Kirkwood and went from elementary through highschool in AISD.

 

When my parents chose that area, Alief was the premier school district in Houston, and I'm sure Sharpstown still had good schools as well. Now though?

 

As the suburbs age they age quickly, hell, when I was a senior at Elsik I saw guns being brought to basketball games, there were metal detectors and drug dogs patrolling the parking lots and sniffing at lockers.

 

If my parents knew in 1973 when they bought the house that I would be going to high school in that environment would they have chosen to live there? Likely not. I personally think that thanks to the diversity of the schools I am a better person for it, at least culturally. 

 

Anyway, your suburb might not change like Alief (and other suburbs) changed, but I think inside the city is as favorable a place to raise a child as any suburb, especially if you can trade the cost incurred for maintaining a car for the long commute for a private school. I can't find a more recent article, but if the prices for private school are still close to this, that's the cost of gasoline for one car a year...

 

http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/private-schools-cost-less-you-may-think

 

I think that the development of master planned communities like Cinco Ranch and First Colony are in part a response to what happened to Sharpstown and Alief.  In the end we may end up with a city with a wealthy core surronded by older suburbs where the urban poor live surrounded by wealthier master planned suburbs.  At least that appears to be where we are now.

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  • 10 months later...

New estimated population numbers for metropolitan areas released today:

 

Houston metro popultation as of July 1, 2013:  6,313,158

 

Increase over July 1, 2012:  137,692

 

Annual growth rate:  2.2%

 

The largest numerical growth of all metro areas.  The 16th fastest rate of growth among all metro areas.  The only metro area of any substantial size that grew at a faster percentage rate than Houston, was Austin, which grew at a 2.6% rate.

 

Houston's growth 2012-2013 population increase was comprised of:

Natural increase (births exceeding deaths):  56,334

International net migration:  25,504

Domestic net migration:  55,620

Edited by Houston19514
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New estimated population numbers for metropolitan areas released today:

 

Houston metro popultation as of July 1, 2013:  6,313,158

 

Increase over July 1, 2012:  137,692

 

Annual growth rate:  2.2%

 

The largest numerical growth of all metro areas.  The 16th fastest rate of growth among all metro areas.  The only metro area of any substantial size that grew at a faster percentage rate than Houston, was Austin, which grew at a 2.6% rate.

 

Houston's growth 2012-2013 population increase was comprised of:

Natural increase (births exceeding deaths):  56,334

International net migration:  25,504

Domestic net migration:  55,620

 

Heard on the radio today that Harris county is the fastest growing county in the country right now.

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^^  Correct.  Harris County had the country's largest numeric increase in population -- 82,890 from July 1, 2012 to July 1, 2013.   1.9%  That rate of growth is not even the fastest in the Houston metropolitan area.  In fact, Harris County's rate of growth was in a 4-way tie for 3rd fastest growth rate in the Houston metro area.

 

(Ft. Bend experienced 4.2% growth and Montgomery experienced 2.9% growth.)

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Thanks for putting those stats together! 25,000 international immigrants seems like a lot. Is that normal growth for a year? I don't have the last 10+ years but it would be interesting to see how that number has grown as Houston becomes recognized more internationally.

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Thanks for putting those stats together! 25,000 international immigrants seems like a lot. Is that normal growth for a year? I don't have the last 10+ years but it would be interesting to see how that number has grown as Houston becomes recognized more internationally.

 

Very quickly, I see that for the 3.25 years since the 2010 census, Houston's total net international migration was 80,394.

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Thanks for putting those stats together! 25,000 international immigrants seems like a lot. Is that normal growth for a year? I don't have the last 10+ years but it would be interesting to see how that number has grown as Houston becomes recognized more internationally.

Here you go: http://recenter.tamu.edu/data/pop/popm/cbsa26420.asp

The new numbers aren't posted yet, but give it a couple of weeks.

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Check out the Galveston-Houston Regional Forecast 2025. HTown is divided into zones. Zone 1 is DT and inner loop. Z2 is 610 to SH Tollway. Z3 is SH to GP. Z4 is GP to areas I am not familiar with. Z5 is even beyond that. According to projections, Z1 gains 200k, Z2 almost a million. Z3 1.3 mil. Z4 almost another million. Z5 like 200k. Thats a LOT more people in just 11 years. Is this a credible summation?

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Check out the Galveston-Houston Regional Forecast 2025. HTown is divided into zones. Zone 1 is DT and inner loop. Z2 is 610 to SH Tollway. Z3 is SH to GP. Z4 is GP to areas I am not familiar with. Z5 is even beyond that. According to projections, Z1 gains 200k, Z2 almost a million. Z3 1.3 mil. Z4 almost another million. Z5 like 200k. Thats a LOT more people in just 11 years. Is this a credible summation?

 

That seems high.  Houston is expected to grow fast but the projections that I've seen have been closer to 2.5 million additional in the next 15 years.  Your numbers add up to about 3.7 in 11 years.

 

It is interesting that projection calls for 200k of the increased 3.7 million inside the loop.  That would increase population inside the loop by about 40% and would still account for only about 6% of the new residents.

 

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Check out the Galveston-Houston Regional Forecast 2025. HTown is divided into zones. Zone 1 is DT and inner loop. Z2 is 610 to SH Tollway. Z3 is SH to GP. Z4 is GP to areas I am not familiar with. Z5 is even beyond that. According to projections, Z1 gains 200k, Z2 almost a million. Z3 1.3 mil. Z4 almost another million. Z5 like 200k. Thats a LOT more people in just 11 years. Is this a credible summation?

 

The forecast growth in the Galveston-Houston Regional Forecast 2025 was between the years 2000 and 2025... 25 years, not 11 years.  The total forecast growth was 2,991,000.   In the first 13 years of the 25-year forecast period, we grew by1,643,587.

 

To clarify, here is the forecasted growth for each of the Zones:

 

1. (Inside the Loop):  190,000

2. (Loop to Beltway): 856,000

3. (Beltway to Grand Parkway:  1,267,000

4. (Beyond Grand Parkway:  512,000

5. (Further beyond Grand Parkway - roughly beyond 35 miles out):  166,000

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  • 2 years later...

2016 metro area population estimates were released today:

 

July 1, 2016 population:  6,772,470

2015 population:  6,647,465

 

1-year increase:  125,005

Growth rate:  1.9%

 

July 1, 2010 population:  5,948,174

6-year increase:  824,296

Percentage growth since July 1, 2010:  13.9%

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  • 11 months later...

2017 metro area population estimates were released today:

 

July 1, 2017 population:  6,892,427

2016 population:   6,798,010 (they apparently revised the original estimate posted a year ago)

 

1 year increase:  94,417

Growth rate:  1.4%

 

July 1, 2010 population:  5,947,419

7-year increase:  944,253

Percentage growth since July 1, 2010:  15.9%

 

(No surprise that we had slower growth than the prior year. I suspect growth has since accelerated again.) We'll probably cross 7 million in the 2018 estimates.

Edited by Houston19514
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  • 1 year later...

2018 metro area population estimates were released today:

 

July 1, 2018 population:  6,997,384

2017 population:   6,905,695

2016 population:   6,812,260 (they apparently revised the original estimate posted a year ago)

 

1 year increase:  91,689

Growth rate:  1.3%

 

July 1, 2010 population:  5,947,409

8-year increase:  1,049,975

Percentage growth since July 1, 2010:  17.7%

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  • 10 months later...

Looking back at some of the ancient posts in this thread, like the one above from 2013 when Samagon talks about the decline in quality of schools in Alief...

 

Just as things change for the worse they can also change for the better. What's Alief like now in 2020 versus 2013, or 2003? I get the feeling it is poised to be a good location in the future. Same with the Chinatown part of Sharpstown. Remember that Spring Branch was not an especially desirable area 25 years ago but has become more attractive as time passed.

 

As for areas that will decline in the future, my money's on east montgomery county going downhill. Kingwood is proper is bourgeious and always will be, but beyond it towards Valley Ranch is either disappointing low-quality subdivisions, or endless trailer parks and rur-ban developments. Colony Ridge when built out is going to introduce a lot of low socioeconomic students to local schools and that's going to really conflict with the old school country white folk who live there. The county is waayy too conservative to put any money into infrastructure or services. It's going to be really ugly. As if it already wasn't, from an amenity point of view there are essentially zero parks, very little shopping or dining(can't keep a Sam's Club in business). I don't know why anyone would live out that way except that they really want a new build house for cheap and drive till you quality, instead of buying a house in an existing area.

 

The growth on Northeast side is going to shift away from 69 towards the Generation Park/Summerwood area, that's my crystal ball prediction.

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  • 1 month later...

2019 metro area population estimates were released yesterday:

 

July 1, 2019 population:  7,066,141

July 1, 2018 population:  6,976,147

2017 population:   6,900,090

2016 population:   6,806,503 

(they revise each year's estimates)

 

1 year increase:  89,994

Growth rate:  1.3%

 

July 1, 2010 population:  5,947,236

9-year increase:  1,118,905

Percentage growth since July 1, 2010:  18.8%

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6 hours ago, Houston19514 said:

2019 metro area population estimates were released yesterday:

 

July 1, 2019 population:  7,066,141

July 1, 2018 population:  6,976,147

2017 population:   6,900,090

2016 population:   6,806,503 

(they revise each year's estimates)

 

1 year increase:  89,994

Growth rate:  1.3%

 

July 1, 2010 population:  5,947,236

9-year increase:  1,118,905

Percentage growth since July 1, 2010:  18.8%

 

We are still hanging on to the crown of percentage growth since 2010 among large metro areas at 19.5%, although DFW is close behind 19.0%. Those are whopping increases though. We should see a 20% growth between 2010 and 2020 censuses. Will take another 33% increase to pull even with the Chicago metro. 

 

We were white hot the first half of the decade and then cooled with the energy downturn. Now the oil industry is looking at another contraction and we have flood issues to deal with. May be awhile before we see soaring growth again.

 

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  • 1 year later...

 

2020 metro area population estimates were released recently:

July 1, 2020 population: 7,154,478

July 1, 2019 population:  7,063,400

July 1, 2018 population:  6,974,948

2017 population:   6,898,912

2016 population:   6,806,315 

(they revise each year's estimates)

 

1 year increase:  91,078

Growth rate:  1.3%

 

July 1, 2010 population:  5,920,485

10-year increase:  1,233,993

Percentage growth since July 1, 2010:  20.8%

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Interesting stuff from the Census Bureau's metro area-to-metro area migration flows: 2014-2018:

Top Metro Areas from which people moved to Houston:

  1. DFW   (18,059)
  2. Austin   (9,483)
  3. San Antonio   (8,396)
  4. New York City   (6,251)
  5. Beaumont   (5,111)
  6. Los Angeles   (5,082)
  7. Chicago   (4,629)
  8. Washington DC   (4,518)
  9. College Station   (4,449)
  10. Miami   (3,425)
  11. New Orleans   (3,065)
  12. McAllen   (2,891)
  13. Denver   (2,447)
  14. Corpus Christi   (2,270)
  15. El Paso   (2,231)
  16. Baton Rouge   (2,210)
  17. Killeen/Temple   (2,138)
  18. San Diego   (1,943)
  19. Atlanta   (1,926)
  20. San Francisco   (1,875)
  21. St Louis    (1,846)
  22. Orlando   (1,684)
  23. Lubbock  (1,671)
  24. Kansas City   (1,653)
  25. Tulsa OK   (1,603)

Top Metro Areas to which people moved from Houston:

  1. DFW   (16,232)
  2. Austin   (13,931)
  3. San Antonio   (7,935)
  4. College Station   (6,729)
  5. Beaumont   (4,845)
  6. Denver   (3,222)
  7. Los Angeles   (3,030)
  8. McAllen   (2,556)
  9. New York City   (2,544)
  10. Chicago   (2,518)
  11. Corpus Christi   (2,436)
  12. Atlanta   (2,187)
  13. New Orleans   (1,929)
  14. Phoenix   (1,902)
  15. Seattle   (1,852)
  16. Oklahoma City   (1,686)
  17. Washington DC   (1,639)
  18. San Francisco   (1,597)
  19. Waco   (1,587)
  20. Miami    (1,409)
  21. Colorado Springs   (1,379)
  22. Baton Rouge   (1,268)
  23. Killeen/Temple   (1,263)
  24. San Diego   (1,228)
  25. Midland   (1,215)

Top Metro Areas for net migration inflow to Houston:

  1. New York City   (3,707)
  2. Washington DC   (2,879)
  3. Chicago   (2,111)
  4. Los Angeles   (2,052)
  5. Miami   (2,016)
  6. DFW   (1,827)
  7. Orlando   (1,213)
  8. El Paso   (1,211)
  9. St Louis   (1,177)
  10. New Orleans   (1,136)
  11. Baton Rouge   (942)
  12. Killeen/Temple   (875)
  13. Gulfport/Biloxi   (860)
  14. Kansas City    (792)
  15. Tulsa   (770)
  16. Philadelphia   (757)
  17. Detroit   (750)
  18. San Juan, Puerto Rico   (719)
  19. San Diego   (715)
  20. Victoria, TX   (657)
  21. Baltimore   (643)
  22. Lake Charles   (628)
  23. Columbus, OH   (625)
  24. Memphis   (611)
  25. Texarkana   (599)

Top Metro Areas for net migration outflow from Houston:

  1. Austin   (4,448)
  2. College Station   (2,280)
  3. Colorado Springs   (852)
  4. Seattle   (842)
  5. Denver   (775)
  6. Lubbock   (676)
  7. Sherman/Denison   (669)
  8. Pensacola, FL   (617)
  9. San Jose, CA   (546)
  10. Grand Rapids, MI   (517)
  11. Longview, TX   (481)
  12. San Angelo, TX   (458)
  13. Boise City, ID   (433)
  14. Ithaca, NY   (419)
  15. Knoxville, TN   (362)
  16. Nashville   (354)
  17. Phoenix   (348)
  18. Indianapolis   (347)
  19. Jacksonville   (328)
  20. Fayetteville/Springdale/Rogers AR   (320)
  21. Charleston, SC   (304)
  22. Atlanta   (261)
  23. Wilmington, NC   (231)
  24. Fort Collins, CO   (213)
  25. Greensboro, NC   (212)
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16 hours ago, Houston19514 said:

Interesting stuff from the Census Bureau's metro area-to-metro area migration flows: 2014-2018:

)

Top Metro Areas for net migration outflow from Houston:

  1. Austin   (4,448)
  2. College Station   (2,280)
  3. Colorado Springs   (852)
  4. Seattle   (842)
  5. Denver   (775)
  6. Lubbock   (676)
  7. Sherman/Denison   (669)
  8. Pensacola, FL   (617)
  9. San Jose, CA   (546)
  10. Grand Rapids, MI   (517)
  11. Longview, TX   (481)
  12. San Angelo, TX   (458)
  13. Boise City, ID   (433)
  14. Ithaca, NY   (419)
  15. Knoxville, TN   (362)
  16. Nashville   (354)
  17. Phoenix   (348)
  18. Indianapolis   (347)
  19. Jacksonville   (328)
  20. Fayetteville/Springdale/Rogers AR   (320)
  21. Charleston, SC   (304)
  22. Atlanta   (261)
  23. Wilmington, NC   (231)
  24. Fort Collins, CO   (213)
  25. Greensboro, NC   (212)

I'm assuming a lot of this has to do with college? UT, A&M, Air Force Academy, CU, Texas Tech, so on and so forth? It seems like a low number for 4 years. 

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1 hour ago, Montrose1100 said:

I'm assuming a lot of this has to do with college? UT, A&M, Air Force Academy, CU, Texas Tech, so on and so forth? It seems like a low number for 4 years. 

It is 'net' so it would represent the ones that went to college in those places and didn't return to Houston (less the students from other locations that came to Houston after grad).

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  • 3 months later...

2020 Census numbers came out yesterday.

Houston (technically Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land) remains the 5th largest metro area.

Houston Metro: Population:  7,122,240   We added 1,201,824 since the 2010 census for a growth rate of 20.3%, the fastest growth rate among the top 20 metros. (One has to go down to No. 22 Orlando to find a metro with a faster growth rate (25.3%; of course that is less than 1/2 the number of people we added.)

Other Texas and regional  metros:

Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington:  7,637,387.   Still the 4th largest metro.  Grew almost as fast as we did - 20%.  Added 1,270,845 people.

San Antonio-New Braunfels:  2,558,143.   Still the 24th largest metro. Added 415,635 for a growth rate of 19.4%

Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown:  2,283,371.  28th largest metro (up from 29th).  Added 567,082 people for a growth rate of 33%!

Oklahoma City:  1,425,695.   Still the 41st largest metro at 1,425,695.  Added 172,708 people for a growth rate of 13.8%

New Orleans-Metarie:  1,271,845.  46th largest metro (down from 45th).  Added 81,979 people for a growth rate of 6.9%

 

 

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Statewide, 95% of the population growth from the past 10 years was non-white. This compares with 89% of the population growth in the ten years prior to that. The Houston area more or less tracks this. Which means that Texas' big population boom has pretty much been a non-white phenomenon. Strange when you think of all those corporate relocations to Texas of largely white workforces. Who is leaving to counterbalance it? College students who never come back? My theory is that there has been a slow white flight from Houston to Austin, and a similar trend is happening from Texas as a whole to more scenic/hip places.

That being said, I don't think there will be a difference between white and Hispanic in 30 years, not in Texas anyway. It's like the difference between British and Irish in a state like Massachusetts. A hundred years ago it was a big deal. Now there is no difference, except maybe on St. Patrick's Day.

 

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1 hour ago, H-Town Man said:

Statewide, 95% of the population growth from the past 10 years was non-white. This compares with 89% of the population growth in the ten years prior to that. The Houston area more or less tracks this. Which means that Texas' big population boom has pretty much been a non-white phenomenon. Strange when you think of all those corporate relocations to Texas of largely white workforces. Who is leaving to counterbalance it? College students who never come back? My theory is that there has been a slow white flight from Houston to Austin, and a similar trend is happening from Texas as a whole to more scenic/hip places.

That being said, I don't think there will be a difference between white and Hispanic in 30 years, not in Texas anyway. It's like the difference between British and Irish in a state like Massachusetts. A hundred years ago it was a big deal. Now there is no difference, except maybe on St. Patrick's Day.

 

Legal and illegal migration from third world countries is what's accounting for much of the growth.

https://www.texastribune.org/2019/05/08/texas-keeps-growing-where-are-newest-transplants-coming/

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2 hours ago, H-Town Man said:

Statewide, 95% of the population growth from the past 10 years was non-white. This compares with 89% of the population growth in the ten years prior to that. The Houston area more or less tracks this. Which means that Texas' big population boom has pretty much been a non-white phenomenon. Strange when you think of all those corporate relocations to Texas of largely white workforces. Who is leaving to counterbalance it? College students who never come back? My theory is that there has been a slow white flight from Houston to Austin, and a similar trend is happening from Texas as a whole to more scenic/hip places.

That being said, I don't think there will be a difference between white and Hispanic in 30 years, not in Texas anyway. It's like the difference between British and Irish in a state like Massachusetts. A hundred years ago it was a big deal. Now there is no difference, except maybe on St. Patrick's Day.

 

I think I read that for the country as a whole, the non-hispanic white population actually went down.  But did it go down in Texas?  Just because the Hispanic and non-white population in Texas is growing faster than the non-Hispanic white population, does not mean there is any significant exodus of non-Hispanic whites from either Houston metro or Texas. Non-Hispanic white population still grew by more than 187,000 in the decade.  There has been a trend reduced non-Hispanic white population in central counties such as Harris and Dallas, but I think they are mostly moving to suburban counties, not to Austin or out of state.

Do we actually have demographics of the corporate relocation people?  Is there really reason to think they are largely non-Hispanic white?  

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44 minutes ago, august948 said:

Legal and illegal migration from third world countries is what's accounting for much of the growth.

https://www.texastribune.org/2019/05/08/texas-keeps-growing-where-are-newest-transplants-coming/

Per the linked article, roughly 28% of Texas' population growth is from international immigration.  (Roughly half is from births over deaths; about 56% of the migration into Texas is international migration.)

 

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2 hours ago, Houston19514 said:

I think I read that for the country as a whole, the non-hispanic white population actually went down.  But did it go down in Texas?  Just because the Hispanic and non-white population in Texas is growing faster than the non-Hispanic white population, does not mean there is any significant exodus of non-Hispanic whites from either Houston metro or Texas. Non-Hispanic white population still grew by more than 187,000 in the decade.  There has been a trend reduced non-Hispanic white population in central counties such as Harris and Dallas, but I think they are mostly moving to suburban counties, not to Austin or out of state.

Do we actually have demographics of the corporate relocation people?  Is there really reason to think they are largely non-Hispanic white?  

When you read in the news that Toyota or Charles Schwab relocates to Dallas, do you think that most of the workers are black and Hispanic? Most of these companies are landing in west Plano and Frisco, which has remained a pretty white area. I don't have demographic data on the corporate relocations, but I do think there is "reason to think" they are largely non-Hispanic white, given that's how the white collar world generally looks, for better or for worse.

For whites drifting out of Texas, I am thinking that natural increase should bring a certain amount of population growth, so if the white population is barely growing, I think there is some outward drift. But you make a good point in that the national white population has declined, so maybe whites have just opted out of natural increase? I do think there is movement from Houston to Austin; the white population in Austin (unlike Houston) has consistently grown over the past few decades, and every other person you meet here is from Houston. I read an article a few years ago, think it was on Swamplot, about how one of the home realty sites (Zillow or Trulia) said their most popular search for Houston residents aside from Houston was Austin, and chalked it up to "lots of daydreaming." 

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On 8/13/2021 at 7:07 PM, H-Town Man said:

For whites drifting out of Texas, I am thinking that natural increase should bring a certain amount of population growth, so if the white population is barely growing, I think there is some outward drift. But you make a good point in that the national white population has declined, so maybe whites have just opted out of natural increase? I do think there is movement from Houston to Austin; the white population in Austin (unlike Houston) has consistently grown over the past few decades, and every other person you meet here is from Houston. I read an article a few years ago, think it was on Swamplot, about how one of the home realty sites (Zillow or Trulia) said their most popular search for Houston residents aside from Houston was Austin, and chalked it up to "lots of daydreaming." 

I'm not taking the time right now to try to dig up the components of Houston metro population growth, but the trend nation-wide is towards negative natural growth among the non-HIspanic white population.  I recall reading several years ago that more than half the states were at that time experiencing such negative natural "growth".  The Houston metro has a younger population so is probably above the national average for natural population growth, but it seems reasonable to expect that it is pretty minimally positive among the non-Hispanic white population.

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On 8/15/2021 at 3:03 PM, Houston19514 said:

I'm not taking the time right now to try to dig up the components of Houston metro population growth, but the trend nation-wide is towards negative natural growth among the non-HIspanic white population.  I recall reading several years ago that more than half the states were at that time experiencing such negative natural "growth".  The Houston metro has a younger population so is probably above the national average for natural population growth, but it seems reasonable to expect that it is pretty minimally positive among the non-Hispanic white population.

All of that is true. But consider... we had a massive oil boom between 2010 and 2015, thousands of high-paying jobs were transferred or created here, we were consistently at the top of "best places to invest" surveys, houses and highrises were constructed right and left faster than any other city... and the white population barely moved. In fact, according to Stephen Klineberg, it's barely moved since the early 80's. That's not just lack of natural growth. And there are plenty of whites moving here. But plenty are leaving meanwhile. I think it is a slow-moving white flight, with Austin as the biggest beneficiary. Think of Austin as that really pretty suburb with lakes and hills and master-planning, and it is your classic flight to the suburbs.

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On 8/15/2021 at 6:45 PM, H-Town Man said:

All of that is true. But consider... we had a massive oil boom between 2010 and 2015, thousands of high-paying jobs were transferred or created here, we were consistently at the top of "best places to invest" surveys, houses and highrises were constructed right and left faster than any other city... and the white population barely moved. In fact, according to Stephen Klineberg, it's barely moved since the early 80's. That's not just lack of natural growth. And there are plenty of whites moving here. But more are leaving. I think it is a slow-moving white flight, with Austin as the biggest beneficiary. Think of Austin as that really pretty suburb with lakes and hills and master-planning, and it is your classic flight to the suburbs.

So, if we are positing that natural growth (among anglos) is essentially flat and the total population (of anglos) is essentially flat, then it cannot be true that significantly more are leaving than arriving. 
 

Not sure of your Klineberg reference.  Perhaps he was referring to Harris County?   Looking at the numbers from the Kinder Institute and the 2020 census, it appears the Houston metro has added 600,000 more anglos since 1990.

https://kinder.rice.edu/sites/default/files/documents/Houston Region Grows More Ethnically Diverse 4-9.pdf,

 https://mtgis-portal.geo.census.gov/arcgis/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=2566121a73de463995ed2b2fd7ff6eb7  

 

(Edited Aug 21 to reflect more accurate numbers for 2020 demographics.)

Edited by Houston19514
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12 hours ago, H-Town Man said:

All of that is true. But consider... we had a massive oil boom between 2010 and 2015, thousands of high-paying jobs were transferred or created here, we were consistently at the top of "best places to invest" surveys, houses and highrises were constructed right and left faster than any other city... and the white population barely moved. In fact, according to Stephen Klineberg, it's barely moved since the early 80's. That's not just lack of natural growth. And there are plenty of whites moving here. But more are leaving. I think it is a slow-moving white flight, with Austin as the biggest beneficiary. Think of Austin as that really pretty suburb with lakes and hills and master-planning, and it is your classic flight to the suburbs.

Utter non-sense. 

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12 hours ago, Houston19514 said:

So, if we are positing that natural growth (among anglos) is essentially flat and the total population (of anglos) is essentially flat, then it cannot be true that significantly more are leaving than arriving. 
 

Not sure of your Klineberg reference.  Perhaps he was referring to Harris County?   Looking at the numbers from the Kinder Institute and the 2020 census, it appears the Houston metro has added around a million more anglos since 1990.

https://kinder.rice.edu/sites/default/files/documents/Houston Region Grows More Ethnically Diverse 4-9.pdf,

 https://mtgis-portal.geo.census.gov/arcgis/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=2566121a73de463995ed2b2fd7ff6eb7  

Fair enough that there's not more leaving than arriving. Like you said, there has been slight overall growth in the Anglo population from 2010 to 2020. But while many arrived due to job transfers and jobs created (Exxon relocating its Virginia campus, Chevron moving almost 2,000 jobs from California, XTO moving 500 or so jobs from Fort Worth), almost as many departed. 

I do not see in your links where a million Anglos were added since 1990. Here is a link for what I said about Klineberg.

https://houston.culturemap.com/news/city-life/04-26-12-kinder-surveys-chart-three-decades-of-change-in-houston/

"All the growth in the last 30 years has been non-Anglo growth." - Klineberg

If you compare this with substantial Anglo growth in Austin over the past 30 years, a large number of which are from Houston (Astros stickers on cars everywhere), it looks like a slow-moving white flight. 

Note that this is merely an observation, not an academic paper or dissertation thesis. If you don't agree, then don't agree. I don't think it really matters. There is some correlation with loss in investment in cities that have experienced white flight (St. Louis, etc.), but L.A. has seen a similar change that exceeds ours and they haven't lost investment. It's more a test case of to what extent whites flee diversity. One could argue that many whites who have moved from Houston to Austin have fled diversity, consciously or unconsciously.

Edited by H-Town Man
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12 minutes ago, H-Town Man said:

Fair enough that there's not more leaving than arriving. Like you said, there has been slight overall growth in the Anglo population from 2010 to 2020. But while many arrived due to job transfers and jobs created (Exxon relocating its Virginia campus, Chevron moving almost 2,000 jobs from California, XTO moving 500 or so jobs from Fort Worth), almost as many departed. 

I do not see in your links where a million Anglos were added since 1990. Here is a link for what I said about Klineberg.

https://houston.culturemap.com/news/city-life/04-26-12-kinder-surveys-chart-three-decades-of-change-in-houston/

"All the growth in the last 30 years has been non-Anglo growth." - Klineberg

If you compare this with substantial Anglo growth in Austin over the past 30 years, a large number of which are from Houston (Astros stickers on cars everywhere), it looks like a slow-moving white flight. 

Note that this is merely an observation, not an academic paper or dissertation thesis. If you don't agree, then don't agree. I don't think it really matters. There is some correlation with loss in investment in cities that have experienced white flight (St. Louis, etc.), but L.A. has seen a similar change that exceeds ours and they haven't lost investment. It's more a test case of to what extent whites flee diversity. One could argue that many whites who have moved from Houston to Austin have fled diversity, consciously or unconsciously.

So, you're now agreeing that there probably haven't been more anglos leaving than arriving, but you still want to cling to your idea that there is some significant white flight out of the Houston metro area... hmmmm   

The Anglo growth is not immediately evident from my links...  One has to do some calculations.  I meant to come back in today to show my work.  Here it is:

In the Kinder Institute report, they show percentages of the metro population that is Anglo.

1990:  57.9%

2000:  48.2%

2010:  39.7%

I looked up the metro population for those years:

1990:  3,301,937 = Anglo population of 1,911,822

2000:  4,177,646 = Anglo population of 2,013,635

2010:  5,920,416 = Anglo population of 2,350,405

The Census Bureau link provided the information regarding the 2020 numbers. I added up the given white populations of the metropolitan area counties. That added up to an Anglo population of 2,950,362.  Now, personally, I doubt we experienced that level of Anglo population growth from 2010-2020.  I suspect that jump has to do with varying methods of categorization and survey questioning.  But it seems pretty clear that the data do not show a decline or even stagnation for the Anglo population of the Houston metro area.

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56 minutes ago, Houston19514 said:

So, you're now agreeing that there probably haven't been more anglos leaving than arriving, but you still want to cling to your idea that there is some significant white flight out of the Houston metro area... hmmmm   

The Anglo growth is not immediately evident from my links...  One has to do some calculations.  I meant to come back in today to show my work.  Here it is:

In the Kinder Institute report, they show percentages of the metro population that is Anglo.

1990:  57.9%

2000:  48.2%

2010:  39.7%

I looked up the metro population for those years:

1990:  3,301,937 = Anglo population of 1,911,822

2000:  4,177,646 = Anglo population of 2,013,635

2010:  5,920,416 = Anglo population of 2,350,405

The Census Bureau link provided the information regarding the 2020 numbers. I added up the given white populations of the metropolitan area counties. That added up to an Anglo population of 2,950,362.  Now, personally, I doubt we experienced that level of Anglo population growth from 2010-2020.  I suspect that jump has to do with varying methods of categorization and survey questioning.  But it seems pretty clear that the data do not show a decline or even stagnation for the Anglo population of the Houston metro area.

Too many issues at this point. I said "slow-moving white flight," not "significant white flight." I said that the white population "barely moved" from 2010-2015, not that there was a decline. If you don't think there has been a stagnation, take it up with Klineberg, since he has been saying this pretty consistently for a decade. I think most of your calculations probably have the same errors due to "varying methods of categorization and survey questioning." And lastly... as always with you... why so contentious? No one's "clinging" to any idea. Notice I said, "I still think" there's slow-moving white flight, not that it's a thesis I'm swearing by. You've already spent more time on this with all your internet searching and extra calculations than I ever have.

 

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19 minutes ago, H-Town Man said:

Too many issues at this point. I said "slow-moving white flight," not "significant white flight." I said that the white population "barely moved" from 2010-2015, not that there was a decline. If you don't think there has been a stagnation, take it up with Klineberg, since he has been saying this pretty consistently for a decade. I think most of your calculations probably have the same errors due to "varying methods of categorization and survey questioning." And lastly... as always with you... why so contentious? No one's "clinging" to any idea. Notice I said, "I still think" there's slow-moving white flight, not that it's a thesis I'm swearing by. You've already spent more time on this with all your internet searching and extra calculations than I ever have.

 

If there's stagnation in the white population, it would show up in the data.  A few cars in Austin bearing bumper stickers supporting the state's best baseball team tells us nothing.  The Kinder Institute's (i.e., Klineberg's) own data disproves the stagnation theory.

Edited by Houston19514
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1 minute ago, Houston19514 said:

If there's stagnation in the white population, show me the data, not some Astros bumper stickers in Austin.  The Kinder Institute's (i.e., Klineberg's) own data disproves the stagnation theory.

I've already given you a link, not sure what the point would be in digging up more. Klineberg's been saying for a decade that the white population effectively stopped growing after the 80's oil bust. It's supported by the drop in % from 60% to 40% in 30 years. Why don't you go tell Klineberg that his own research disproves his theory? This could be a dream moment for you. For years you've been arguing with everything anyone posts on an internet forum that can be remotely construed as negative about Houston... take it to the big stage!

 

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18 minutes ago, Houston19514 said:

If there's stagnation in the white population, it would show up in the data.  A few cars in Austin bearing bumper stickers supporting the state's best baseball team tells us nothing.  The Kinder Institute's (i.e., Klineberg's) own data disproves the stagnation theory.

Nice edit to your post! Of course, I only threw that in a parenthesis as anecdotal coloring. This is all-out war for you, isn't it?

 

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3 minutes ago, H-Town Man said:

I've already given you a link, not sure what the point would be in digging up more. Klineberg's been saying for a decade that the white population effectively stopped growing after the 80's oil bust. It's supported by the drop in % from 60% to 40% in 30 years. Why don't you go tell Klineberg that his own research disproves his theory? This could be a dream moment for you. For years you've been arguing with everything anyone posts on an internet forum that can be remotely construed as negative about Houston... take it to the big stage!

 

And I posted the link to the data. Who knows what Klineberg was trying to say in that quote or whether he was misquoted or taken out of context? The data speaks for itself.  And it does not show a white population stagnation.

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10 minutes ago, Houston19514 said:

And I posted the link to the data. Who knows what Klineberg was trying to say in that quote or whether he was misquoted or taken out of context? The data speaks for itself.  And it does not show a white population stagnation.

You posted a link that had percentages, which showed the Anglo percentage plummeting. Then you added your own calculations, but admitted you thought some of them were wrong due to changes in how things were measured, how surveys were done, etc. You asked me for a link for what Klineberg said and I gave it to you, then you opined that he was misquoted or taken out of context (!).

Now you have fallen back on the old Houston 19514 trademarks: The LOL, the winking smiley face, and telling other people to lighten up, as if all your frantic internet searching and homemade statistics were done so lightheartedly...

 

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For those interested in data, here is what Klineberg's data tells us about the non-Hispanic white population of the Houston metro area from 1990 to 2010. It will be interesting to see the 2020 numbers when comparable data becomes available:

1990:  57.9% = 1,911,822

2000:  482% = 2,013,125

2010:  39.7% = 2,350,405

Edited by Houston19514
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1 hour ago, august948 said:

Any idea if we'll be getting any of the Afghanis fleeing our latest foreign policy disaster?

Somewhere between 50 and 320 https://www.click2houston.com/news/local/2021/08/17/texas-preparing-to-take-in-afghan-refugees/

I did some volunteer work with an org a few years ago to help refugees learn english and several were Afghan. I'm sure they'll fit in fine just like the others that were already here.

 

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