METRO Ridership Continues To Grow

[ricco67]

The problem with most times during major events if that if it is after"rush hour", they hold onto the 15 minute train schedule. It makes for getting in and out of reliant a bit of a wait.

But as it has been mentioned before, the 19 cars due to arrive by the end of the year will make a difference.

[BarryKlein]

During Superbowl in January 2004 only about 10% of Metro riders used rail....the rest used Metro buses.

They could have planned to use buses only, dropped the rail program back in year 2000, and saved $300 million.

A packed rail car, it should be pointed out, is much more tempting to a terrorist than a bus...More bang for the buck.

Tory is right. No light rail in the US has headways less than 6 or 7 minutes and Houston is just about there.

[Houston19514]

The MetroRail ridership January numbers are available now in detail:

Average

Weekday

Ridership per station

2011 2012 % Increase (decrease)

Fannin South 1696 1987 17.16%

Reliant Park 855 1023 19.65%

Smith Lands 2594 2978 14.8%

TMC TC 2873 3285 14.34%

Dryden TMC 4279 4671 9.16%

Hermann/Zoo 2591 2996 15.63%

Hermann Park/R 372 408 9.67%

Museum District 905 1045 15.47%

Wheeler 2732 3067 12.26%

HCC/Ensemble 1917 2148 12.05%

McGowen 1194 1240 3.85%

Downtown TC 2731 2990 9.48%

Bell 715 1014 41.82%

Main St Square 3271 3440 5.17%

Preston 2367 3070 29.7%

UHDT 1661 1453 (14.32%)

Average

Saturday

ridership per station

2011 2012 % Increase (decrease)

Fannin South 827 1187 43.53%

Reliant Park 1025 1392 35.8%

Smith Lands 216 312 44.44%

TMC TC 1065 1278 20%

Dryden TMC 893 869 (2.69%)

Hermann/Zoo 593 883 48.9%

Hermann Park/R 327 487 48.93%

Museum District 438 572 30.59%

Wheeler 1494 1731 15.86%

HCC/Ensemble 669 857 28.10%

McGowen 545 614 12.66%

Downtown TC 1212 1432 18.15%

Bell 353 533 50.99%

Main St Square 1532 1769 15.47%

Preston 953 1286 34.94%

UHDT 511 461 ( 9.78%)

Average

Sunday

ridership by station

2011 2012 % Increase (decrease)

Fannin South 421 681 61.76%

Reliant Park 268 490 82.84%

Smith Lands 89 451 406.74%

TMC TC 666 684 2.7%

Dryden TMC 458 730 59.39%

Hermann/Zoo 358 602 68.16%

Hermann Park/R 129 291 125.58%

Museum District 223 365 63.68%

Wheeler 704 1104 56.82%

HCC/Ensemble 348 525 50.86%

McGowen 222 401 80.63%

Downtown TC 745 1047 40.54%

Bell 131 197 50.38%

Main St Square 762 1151 51.05%

Preston 534 903 69.10%

UHDT 240 270 12.5%

[RedScare]

A packed rail car, it should be pointed out, is much more tempting to a terrorist than a bus...More bang for the buck.

It should also be pointed out that oil refineries and nuclear power plants are more tempting targets than trains. Do you recommend that we dismantle them? And, for what its worth, far more coffee shops have been bombed than trains over the years.

I submit that when one has to go to the "terrorist target" well, one has run out of legitimate arguments...as if "promises" made in 1978 qualify as legitimate arguments. When the mayor diverts 25% of the funds "promised" to your transit agency, and the voters approve building the rail lines, it seems to me that the voters (and the mayor) are approving the breaking of said "promises".

[samagon]

Just because you bummed a ride from a friend or family member one day in 2010 when it was raining doesn't mean you have reliable access to a car. I get a ride from my mother occasionally, but I don't drive.

Indeed, driving, and riding

are very different. Either way, that's a lot of people that don't drive a car and either by car pool, bus, train, taxi, kayak or helicopter they ride, but not drive.

I've only scanned over this discussion, but I agree with something Tory said about the red line capacity. I've only ridden it on a "normal" day a couple of times and there was mostly plenty of room. However, when I go to Reliant (Rodeo, Texans, Final Four, College football bowl game etc), it is jammed packed and the closer you get to Reliant, it's almost impossible for more people to board.

I can't imagine what it was like for the Super Bowl or what the next Final Four is going to be like. I'm sure planners are aware of this and will accommodate with more buses. Do they run more trains or run them more often for special events?

I've mentioned before that the trains were sardine can packed.

[mfastx]

Well I had this long response typed up and somehow lost it when I pressed "post." Oh well.

All I am going to say is that Houstonians are behind light rail and they know the benefits of it. I'm glad we are moving forward with building it.

[samagon]

It's not hard to see that Midtown population is rising, fast, one must wonder what part the rail line plays in the individual decisions to move to midtown?

I know that of my two friends that are living there now, that light rail played heavily in their decision making process, and both of them use it regularly.

[TheNiche]

It's not hard to see that Midtown population is rising, fast, one must wonder what part the rail line plays in the individual decisions to move to midtown?

I've talked to a fair number of appraisers about this issue because, well...it comes up a lot. Light rail is most definitely a talking point for apartment developers that are trying to raise financing for a project. The problem is...it isn't borne out in any academic literature that there is a discernible effect on market demand except for when a city's "poor" rider demographics signal a negative amenity that's associated with crime and poverty. Consequently, appraisers aren't very willing to go out on a limb and make unusual assumptions regarding the impact on demand that light rail might have.

My sense is that the Red Line shouldn't be a negative amenity. It create a kind of sorting-out effect, whereby people that want to use it lease apartments nearby instead of further away and where people that don't care take what's more available that's further away...without either group factoring in any kind of premium or discount because light rail hasn't affected the aggregate market demand for Class A inner loop apartments.

[samagon]

I think the only real way to do it would be to send out a mailer to every resident in 77002 asking 2 questions:

1. was the red line a positive factor in your decision to move to midtown

2. now that you are a resident, do you use the light rail

granted, midtown isn't exactly filled with a cross section demographic of the entire city (not even close)...

[TheNiche]

I think the only real way to do it would be to send out a mailer to every resident in 77002 asking 2 questions:

1. was the red line a positive factor in your decision to move to midtown

2. now that you are a resident, do you use the light rail

granted, midtown isn't exactly filled with a cross section demographic of the entire city (not even close)...

The problem is, that doesn't yield quantifiable or actionable information. I mean, hell, I only live a few blocks from it and I'd answer yes to both of those questions. Never mind that the frequency of use is only once every a year or thereabouts, to go to the Rodeo. I wouldn't pay more to live closer to a station, I mostly just happen to like a neighborhood that it passes through.

I suspect that light rail is like many other apartment amenities. A developer can expect possibly 10% of tenants to consistently use the amenities, but they exist primarily as a tie-breaker between housing products that are commodities in every other way and to lure in the aspirational tenant that would like to imagine themselves living that lifestyle.

A better survey forces consumers to quantify their preferences in dollar amounts and provides an analyst with a tool to estimate the size of the market that can afford new housing along the light rail that will also demand new housing along the light rail. But even that kind of an approach yields noisy data. A lot of people are intelligent enough that when you ask them about something controversial in a survey, they pick up on the underlying purpose of the survey and bias themselves in order to achieve their preferred outcome. Focus groups would be better in many ways at coaxing out meaningful and thoughtful responses.

[mikehouston]

Well I had this long response typed up and somehow lost it when I pressed "post." Oh well.

All I am going to say is that Houstonians are behind light rail and they know the benefits of it. I'm glad we are moving forward with building it.

Indeed. To me all this debate over cost effectiveness and maximum headways is just silliness. I would gladly pay much more in taxes to extend our rail service right now - or if there was a way to donate to metro for specific lines, I would do that, in exchange for ridership privileges in the future. Perhaps there is an idea for a startup there - like a massive Groupon for building infrastructure projects. That is actually how Groupon started - as a political project - but then they found that couponing was much easier to make money at, and quickly.

And the supposedly "ineffective" Southeast line etc? Supported by the voters. Rail critics fail to understand that which forms of transportation we build is a political battle, not a battle over libertarian measures of cost-effectiveness - and they continue to insult the voters of East / North Houston who overwhelmingly supported these projects at the polls by insinuating that these Houstonians do not deserve the same level of transportation that the Galleria or Med Center areas are going to receive. I wonder how cost-effective libertarians find other public services to be, such as sidewalks, libraries, etc? If they could, they would privatize everything, but that's never going to happen, so why try to measure cost-effectiveness by their silly standards? In my view nearly everything that the government provides would fail if we put it through some arbitrary measure of cost effectiveness - the military, schools, transportation, mail service, roads, etc. Yet all are valuable services that we should continue to provide - rail is no different.

As for rail interfering with traffic - we already know the long term solution - which will eventually happen here: grade separated rail. Might take 50 years, but if Houston is going to have 10 million+ people, it will also have grade-separated transportation. Should have probably started down this path in the 1980's, but sometimes progress take a long, long time.

[mikehouston]

The problem is, that doesn't yield quantifiable or actionable information.

Shouldn't we be able to look at something like rents along the Red line, adjusted for the class of the apartment building and base land value? Not saying I have that information....

[JamesL]

Shouldn't we be able to look at something like rents along the Red line, adjusted for the class of the apartment building and base land value? Not saying I have that information....

Or not adjusted for land value. I recall hearing (sorry, not sure where) that land prices in Midtown increased tenfold when the light rail line came in, and the slow pace of redevelopment has been a result of land owners holding out for ever higher prices. I think it will be interesting to see if the new lines burst that bubble because light rail access will no longer be an exclusive amenity.

[samagon]

Or not adjusted for land value. I recall hearing (sorry, not sure where) that land prices in Midtown increased tenfold when the light rail line came in, and the slow pace of redevelopment has been a result of land owners holding out for ever higher prices. I think it will be interesting to see if the new lines burst that bubble because light rail access will no longer be an exclusive amenity.

or if the other areas then start to increase value as well?

[TheNiche]

If they could, they would privatize everything, but that's never going to happen, so why try to measure cost-effectiveness by their silly standards? In my view nearly everything that the government provides would fail if we put it through some arbitrary measure of cost effectiveness - the military, schools, transportation, mail service, roads, etc. Yet all are valuable services that we should continue to provide - rail is no different.

As for rail interfering with traffic - we already know the long term solution - which will eventually happen here: grade separated rail. Might take 50 years, but if Houston is going to have 10 million+ people, it will also have grade-separated transportation. Should have probably started down this path in the 1980's, but sometimes progress take a long, long time.

I don't think that anybody on HAIF has taken a hard line against government spending for the principle of the thing; I know such people exist, but they are basically irrelevant. FWIW, my standard is Pareto efficiency and I absolutely agree with you that fixed-guideway transit with a 40-year life expectancy cannot be done half-assedly in a city like Houston. We should do it the right way (with grade seperations at major intersections or continuously) or we shouldn't do it at all until we can afford to do it the right way.

Shouldn't we be able to look at something like rents along the Red line, adjusted for the class of the apartment building and base land value? Not saying I have that information....

Renters don't care what the land value is; there can be vast disconnects between land value and rental rates. Rental rates at stabilized complexes are the best proxy for demand, its just that you have to adjust not only for the physical differences (i.e. visibility/accessibility, age, construction, amenity package, floorplans, unit sizes, unit mix, height/view premiums, etc.) but also the very subjective differences between neighborhoods. This is a problem.

For instance, let's shop 1,000-square-foot one-bedroom units on a concession-adjusted rent per square foot basis at complexes completed in 2010 and 2011, all of which are 94% to 100% occupied:

Camden Travis ($1.77 psf)

CityPlace Midtown ($1.51 psf), and

Venue Museum District ($1.81 psf)

VERSUS

The Belle Meade at River Oaks ($2.03 psf)

La Maison at River Oaks ($1.81 psf, estimated as if such a unit were available there), and

West Ave ($2.00 psf)

Fairmont Museum District ($1.68 psf, completed in 2008, but still a good comp)

I think that it might be fair to say that tenants of new apartments prefer River Oaks and the core Museum District to Midtown or south Montrose, but to my eye, the sample size is too limited to draw statistically significant conclusions regarding light rail. Would you agree?

[ToryGattis]

The problem is, that doesn't yield quantifiable or actionable information. I mean, hell, I only live a few blocks from it and I'd answer yes to both of those questions. Never mind that the frequency of use is only once every a year or thereabouts, to go to the Rodeo. I wouldn't pay more to live closer to a station, I mostly just happen to like a neighborhood that it passes through.

Also living in 77002, I'll second that exact response.

[mikehouston]

I don't think that anybody on HAIF has taken a hard line against government spending for the principle of the thing; I know such people exist, but they are basically irrelevant. FWIW, my standard is Pareto efficiency and I absolutely agree with you that fixed-guideway transit with a 40-year life expectancy cannot be done half-assedly in a city like Houston. We should do it the right way (with grade seperations at major intersections or continuously) or we shouldn't do it at all until we can afford to do it the right way.

Well I also think that:

1) We can (already) afford quality grade-separated public transit, even if it is a matter of increasing funding. And the longer we wait, the more likely it is that costs will outpace inflation.

2) Light rail is an unfortunate but necessary evil. It will help convince the necessary political majorities, in time, that #1 is in fact true, even though it is already true, and has been true for 30+ years.

Therefore I support the light rail even though we both agree that grade-separated rail is the ultimate outcome. If we could just skip that step, then sure I am all for it. I think 90% of light rail supporters would agree. But I do not see how you get to grade-separated rail outcome without this step in a city like Houston that is historically car-centric and anti-rail. The past 30 years of local political history, congressional shenanigans, etc. only serve to prove this point.

The pattern seems fairly clear to me from looking at other cities. The city starts off as staunchly opposed to rail, then the starter line goes in and everyone wants an extension built to their neighborhood (except Afton Oaks, apparently). Eventually someone finally puts together a more ambitious plan like LA's 30/10 which is now http://americafastforward.org/ which begins to include subway components, etc. IMHO we should skip most of the light rail and simply go ahead and build the elevated / subway rail in places like the Red Line / University Line where it seems fairly obvious that it will be necessary at some point.

I think that it might be fair to say that tenants of new apartments prefer River Oaks and the core Museum District to Midtown or south Montrose, but to my eye, the sample size is too limited to draw statistically significant conclusions regarding light rail. Would you agree?

Yes, also I think the question is not how Midtown compares to River Oaks, but how sections of Midtown near the rail perform relative to other sections of Midtown that are further from the rail - but otherwise have the same qualities / proximity to positive features, etc. Comparing River Oaks and Midtown real estate does not seem helpful.

[TheNiche]

IMHO we should skip most of the light rail and simply go ahead and build the elevated / subway rail in places like the Red Line / University Line where it seems fairly obvious that it will be necessary at some point.

That is my precisely my stance as well, however I do acknowledge that both the City of Houston and METRO have a finite and constrained budgets in the here and now. There are limits to what they can borrow without compromising their credit rating and there are limits (some imposed by State law, others imposed by constituents) to which tax rates can be raised. Whether you like it or not, that is the political environment we have to work within. I also differ from you in that I am not in favor of incrementalism, simply due to the extraordinarily high capital costs incurred by infrastructure that has such a long life expectancy.

I actually tend to think that there are still opportunities to build and upgrade our street grid (for instance, with widening or grade separation at intersections, or by developing inner city toll facilities), and I think that options such as that should be totally exhausted prior to any capital investments beyond the core set of rail lines (Red, Universities, and Uptown). Expenditures on mass transit will only gain unopposed political acceptance once the city is completely choked with traffic and new roads cannot solve our problems; we're not there yet. In the mean time, we need to identify and protect unencumbered rights of way and plan for that future.

Yes, also I think the question is not how Midtown compares to River Oaks, but how sections of Midtown near the rail perform relative to other sections of Midtown that are further from the rail - but otherwise have the same qualities / proximity to positive features, etc. Comparing River Oaks and Midtown real estate does not seem helpful.

I understand that, but that's the geographic distribution of the newest complexes, wherein Venue Museum District and Camden Travis are actually really good datapoints. The only other datapoints influenced by light rail are going to be Camden Midtown ($1.45 psf, estimated) or Ventana at Midtown ($1.38 psf), each a fair bit older. Compare them to Midtown Arbor Place ($1.91 psf), Post Midtown ($1.42 psf), 2222 Smith St ($1.54 psf), Calais at Courtlandt Square ($1.52 psf), or Camden City Centre Ph. I ($1.48 psf).

Again, I feel like there is not sufficient evidence to conclude that light rail access commands a premium rent, primarily due to noisy data and limited sample size. Do you agree?

[Houston19514]

I understand that, but that's the geographic distribution of the newest complexes, wherein Venue Museum District and Camden Travis are actually really good datapoints. The only other datapoints influenced by light rail are going to be Camden Midtown ($1.45 psf, estimated) or Ventana at Midtown ($1.38 psf), each a fair bit older. Compare them to Midtown Arbor Place ($1.91 psf), Post Midtown ($1.42 psf), 2222 Smith St ($1.54 psf), Calais at Courtlandt Square ($1.52 psf), or Camden City Centre Ph. I ($1.48 psf).

Again, I feel like there is not sufficient evidence to conclude that light rail access commands a premium rent, primarily due to noisy data and limited sample size. Do you agree?

The fact of the geographic distribution surely tells us a lot about the value of proximity to the rail line (or at the very least the value perceived by the apartment developers).

[samagon]

That is my precisely my stance as well, however I do acknowledge that both the City of Houston and METRO have a finite and constrained budgets in the here and now. There are limits to what they can borrow without compromising their credit rating and there are limits (some imposed by State law, others imposed by constituents) to which tax rates can be raised. Whether you like it or not, that is the political environment we have to work within. I also differ from you in that I am not in favor of incrementalism, simply due to the extraordinarily high capital costs incurred by infrastructure that has such a long life expectancy.

I actually tend to think that there are still opportunities to build and upgrade our street grid (for instance, with widening or grade separation at intersections, or by developing inner city toll facilities), and I think that options such as that should be totally exhausted prior to any capital investments beyond the core set of rail lines (Red, Universities, and Uptown). Expenditures on mass transit will only gain unopposed political acceptance once the city is completely choked with traffic and new roads cannot solve our problems; we're not there yet. In the mean time, we need to identify and protect unencumbered rights of way and plan for that future.

I understand that, but that's the geographic distribution of the newest complexes, wherein Venue Museum District and Camden Travis are actually really good datapoints. The only other datapoints influenced by light rail are going to be Camden Midtown ($1.45 psf, estimated) or Ventana at Midtown ($1.38 psf), each a fair bit older. Compare them to Midtown Arbor Place ($1.91 psf), Post Midtown ($1.42 psf), 2222 Smith St ($1.54 psf), Calais at Courtlandt Square ($1.52 psf), or Camden City Centre Ph. I ($1.48 psf).

Again, I feel like there is not sufficient evidence to conclude that light rail access commands a premium rent, primarily due to noisy data and limited sample size. Do you agree?

is it fair to compare specific areas, but not directly relate them to other areas? such as the apartments across from reliant on Fannin compared then to apartments farther down holly hall?

that may give an adequate sampling?

hell, take note of rates now along the new lines, then in 8 years we can bump this topic to see how the rent changed (adjusted for inflation of course).

I can wait patiently...

edit: I think this all hinges on how kayak accessible Houston becomes in the next 8 years though..

[TheNiche]

is it fair to compare specific areas, but not directly relate them to other areas? such as the apartments across from reliant on Fannin compared then to apartments farther down holly hall?

that may give an adequate sampling?

The apartments you're referencing were built by Archstone in the mid-90's and seem to be a datapoint (one datapoint, the only datapoint) supporting the hypothesis that light rail adds value. There are a couple of comparable complexes on Almeda that command lower rents or that had to be renovated to command equal rents. But until you venture into that god-forsaken Holly Hall cluster____ of mid-90's apartments that's east of Almeda, north of OST, or south of 610, there really aren't any comps, and I'd argue that those are each different neighborhoods with different leasing dynamics.

I would hypothesize that light rail might be an attractive amenity for a demographic that is heavy on medical staff and medical students, the sort of folks that would only end up parking at Smithlands and using light rail as a shuttle anyway if they didn't live next to a stop. To my mind, the dynamic surrounding the TMC, its parking situation, its transit situation, and its housing situation are all unique and can't be replicated anywhere else in Houston.

[mfastx]

I just wanted to point out that I very much agree with what others have said, that more grade seperations would be ideal. However, we have had proposals like this in the past and they have been shot down by voters and mayors. I believe that when we get these lines up and running, Houston as a city would be more willing to spend the extra money on transit.

[samagon]

I just wanted to point out that I very much agree with what others have said, that more grade seperations would be ideal. However, we have had proposals like this in the past and they have been shot down by voters and mayors. I believe that when we get these lines up and running, Houston as a city would be more willing to spend the extra money on transit.

this. I'm kind of hoping in the back of my mind that the U line is slow enough to get funding that it makes sense to be elevated above richmond from the spur out to westlayan, and then go underground from there to 610 to stay on a richmond alignment the whole way.

[TheNiche]

I just wanted to point out that I very much agree with what others have said, that more grade seperations would be ideal. However, we have had proposals like this in the past and they have been shot down by voters and mayors. I believe that when we get these lines up and running, Houston as a city would be more willing to spend the extra money on transit.

I only ever saw one viable light rail referendum, bundled with a substantial non-rail component to influence the suburban vote, which only passed by a statistically insignificant margin (2%). Had the rail component been isolated, the vote would have failed.

[ricco67]

For those that might be interested, here are the ridership reports posted at Metro Website.

It makes for an interesting read...at least, to me.

[mfastx]

Had the rail component been isolated, the vote would have failed.

Very probable. The METRO Solutions comprehensive plan seems very solid, I am looking forward to all of the non-rail improvements as well.

[JamesL]

According to METRO on Facebook:

Phenomenal day for METRORail yesterday, setting a new single-day ridership record with 70, 611 boardings! This beats rail’s previous high in 2007 when Beyonce took the stage at the rodeo. Last night, The Band Perry performed at the rodeo. Thanks to all for riding, and helping METRO set a new record.

[woolie]

To answer the questionnaire posted above:

1. Yes, proximity to the Red Line was a very important factor in my decision of where to buy.

This was true both when I was renting (farther South in midtown, near 59, about 2 blocks from the line) and now that I own (farther North, about 8 blocks from the line.) I work in the TMC and the parking situation there is just not acceptable (I do not get subsidized parking.)

2. Yes, I use the Red Line several times per week.

Weather plays a factor. If it is horribly raining/unbearably hot, I might drive and park in the garage, but I try to limit this ($$). If it is a really nice day, I might ride my bike. The following are approximate door-to-door times.

1) Get dropped off: 8 min

2) Drive and park in garage: 15 min (but $$)

3) Ride my bike: 18 min

4) Dropped off at station and take train: 20 min

5) Walk to station and take train: 25 min

6) Drive and park off-site: 30 min

4, 5, 6 are the most common and about equally represented.

As a practical consequence, my household is fine with a single car, and we've been a single car household for years at a time. Currently have two, and the second is very under used (but that's a different topic, mostly family related )

[chicocasanova]

A woman I know in Denver, Colorado said that the Denver city bus sells a one-year ticket. Does Houston Metro also sell that kind?

[mfastx]

A woman I know in Denver, Colorado said that the Denver city bus sells a one-year ticket. Does Houston Metro also sell that kind?

Not that I know of. METRO uses a more modern (and better IMO) fare system, called the Q card, which is a card you can keep for about 10 years, you just load money on it (on. line, at all rail stations, and on buses).