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Buy! What to buy?!?


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I've always had the "Buy and hold" mentality when it came to stocks, and I'm just seeing a BUNCH of opportunity. I already sank some "beer money" in stocks over the past few days.

Needless to say, there are stocks that have taken a substantial hit, but I see it as a buying opportunity. Which ones do you think have taken an undeserved hit that are bound to make a substantial rebound when we (eventually) recover. But there are too many for one person to research.

Any opinions of what you might buy?

BTW: I buy to hold for 5 yrs or more, I'm not out for a quick buck, so I'm curious to hear your opinions.

I'm thinking about just buying an S&P index fund. As it happens I just finished reading 'The Myth of the Rational Market' which points out how difficult it is to consistently pick stocks that out-perform the market over time. That said, although they would have tanked last week I think that energy stocks are good bets in general. Demand for oil isn't going to go away. It seems somewhat surprising given the increased concern over a recession, but a lot of banks are still predicting a strong stock market for the remainder of the year.

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I'm thinking about just buying an S&P index fund. As it happens I just finished reading 'The Myth of the Rational Market' which points out how difficult it is to consistently pick stocks that out-perform the market over time. That said, although they would have tanked last week I think that energy stocks are good bets in general. Demand for oil isn't going to go away. It seems somewhat surprising given the increased concern over a recession, but a lot of banks are still predicting a strong stock market for the remainder of the year.

I've always had a tendency buy stocks while people are in a panic and have done quite well with it. Problem is that people have a tendency to run as a herd and when the market does its gyrations, I just ride out the storm and look at opportunities to buy. I NEVER try to sell during these times, but when I think the news on a particular holding seems to justify it, and that is rare.

That said, my daughter is going to be in for a juicy inheritance, I'm too tight fisted to cash out.

Edited by ricco67
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The following people would like to thank the tea party and the republicans for not raising their taxes. The middle class desperately needs to keep up the fight on behalf of the wealthy as there is no nobler cause. Every yacht helps but more corporate jets are still badly needed.

Warren Buffett $45 B 80 Omaha, NE Berkshire Hathaway

From Warren Buffett...

I have worked with investors for 60 years and I have yet to see anyone — not even when capital gains rates were 39.9 percent in 1976-77 — shy away from a sensible investment because of the tax rate on the potential gain. People invest to make money, and potential taxes have never scared them off. And to those who argue that higher rates hurt job creation, I would note that a net of nearly 40 million jobs were added between 1980 and 2000. You know what’s happened since then: lower tax rates and far lower job creation.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/15/opinion/stop-coddling-the-super-rich.html?_r=3

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/buffett-blasts-low-taxes-billionaires-says-congress-must-142239366.html;_ylt=AmKi_0eL5SgJinP3zOqHOl.7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE1Ym92NjQ5BHBvcwM3BHNlYwN0b3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawNidWZmZXR0c3VwZXI-?sec=topStories&pos=4&asset=&ccode=

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See. Mr. Buffett "mostly" gets it. But don't worry, I'm sure he'll have enough money left over for himself.

I wonder if he saw my post at HAIF and I gave him a guilt trip so he decided to do the right thing.

You are welcomed, America!

Edited by Mister X
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  • 2 weeks later...
  • 3 weeks later...

The market is so schizo.

Anyone wanna guess as to where the bottom will be ?

I was starting to feel at beginning of the month, that perhaps I'd missed the optimal time to buy back in. Of course, then last week happened.

A month ago, we were throwing around the idea of a double dip... but we really haven't moved much since then. My gut says, we might be at the bottom, but I'm not yet willing to put my IRA back into play.

The Dow's high was 12810. That was 136 days ago and it has since lost 13.66%

The S&P500 is off 14.7% from it's high in roughly the same amount of time.

Anyone know how that compares to other market corrections in the past ?

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The market is so schizo.

Anyone wanna guess as to where the bottom will be ?

I was starting to feel at beginning of the month, that perhaps I'd missed the optimal time to buy back in. Of course, then last week happened.

A month ago, we were throwing around the idea of a double dip... but we really haven't moved much since then. My gut says, we might be at the bottom, but I'm not yet willing to put my IRA back into play.

The Dow's high was 12810. That was 136 days ago and it has since lost 13.66%

The S&P500 is off 14.7% from it's high in roughly the same amount of time.

Anyone know how that compares to other market corrections in the past ?

I'm eyeballing XM, someone is supposedly going to decide on the 14th what they want to do with it. I'm sitting pretty with my silver and gold, so I'm not budging on that.

I'm rather undecided on what IS getting to be a good deal.

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  • 5 months later...

So, That time of year again for us 401K and IRA market timers.

2010 - S&P high was April 23rd. Low came early July 2nd then dipped again Aug 27th before the rally started in earnest.

2011 - S&P High was April 29th. Low was Aug 19th and nearly reached again Sept 30th before the rally began in earnest. Anyone that went by the old "sell in May" adage made a pretty penny.

2007-2009 didn't follow the pattern as we were in freefall.

2004-2005 somewhat followed the pattern, 2006 followed the pattern though the downturn was compressed.

I know trying to time the markets considered not the way to go and counter to long-term investing. It certainly can backfire as the brief history above shows,. But I also firmly believe riding every up and down of the seasonal roller coaster is pretty insane.

Being the google excel dork that I am, Iv'e been keeping track of "what would have been". Had I not actively managed my IRA last May, left every fund as-is and just rode the coaster down then back up, I would have caught back up to myself just yesterday with the big market rally. That would have been 10 months of 0% net gains. Moving up the ladder 2 months of every year ? How the hell is that a viable strategy for long term growth ?

Instead - "Selling in May" and getting back in early Oct put me squarely in the "Made a pretty penny" group.

Of course, those are currently unrealized, which brings us back to my opening statement - It's that time of year again for the market timers.

Several indications, the stalling Russell 2000 index, the lagging DJ Transportation Index, under-performing small-caps show we might be reaching a market high. According to lots of analysts, 2012 will probably be another one that follows the seasonal cycle with perhaps May even coming early.

I'm hardly a market expert, I just try to read as many articles as I can on the matter.

Thoughts on market timing in general? Thoughts on this year's possible cycle? Thoughts on the election cycle possibly trumping the seasonal cycle? Would also like to get thoughts from others that follow this strategy on good sectors to put money duing the summer doldrums besides on the sidelines.

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The problem is that you need to pick stocks that you want long term that will pay good dividends and maintain a good DRIP.

I've been sinking money into intel, cisco,chevron, exxon, etc. and its like watching grass grow, but it is growing.

A small portion of my portfolio are stock I try to"time" with only moderate success.

With my long term items, I've been beating the market, but my trading section is a hit and miss.

More what I've been doing is buying cheap stock and seeing what it does.

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The problem is that you need to pick stocks that you want long term that will pay good dividends and maintain a good DRIP.

I've been sinking money into intel, cisco,chevron, exxon, etc. and its like watching grass grow, but it is growing.

A small portion of my portfolio are stock I try to"time" with only moderate success.

With my long term items, I've been beating the market, but my trading section is a hit and miss.

More what I've been doing is buying cheap stock and seeing what it does.

Not a problem for 401k or the IRA crowd since for the most part you are only choosing from mutual funds. Brokerage accounts within those I believe cost a little somthing extra.

DRIP also isn't important since this is just growing wealth for retirement.

Dividends aren't a problem either. for the most part, they have sucked across the board for mutual funds, least the 50 or so offered to me the past yr or so.

Also, I disagree with putting that much stock in dividends to begin with.

Back in 07, I had several mutual fund that paid pretty good dividends. I had a feeling the market was getting ready to turn sour and wanted to pull out. But I didnt. Because I didn't know how dividends worked (if I actually had to own the fund at the time the divideds were paid out in order to get paid or would get them retroactively after a sell) So I held on to the next payout date... And While I did get paid dividends, the losses I reazlied when the the market was going down the crapper far outweighed the dividend.

Never again. Dividends once, twice, or quarterly if you're lucky, in my experience are peanuts compared to the possible losses you'll incur by riding the roller coaster down to the bottom.

Edited by Highway6
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  • 1 month later...

You got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em

Know when to walk away and know when to run

Dow is +200 today... tis tempting to cash out on such a high note.

Do it. :)

I just found out I have a few shares or walmart that I bought via employee stock purchase program back when i used to work there....

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  • 1 month later...

Have there been any rumblings of JC Penney is at risk of going bankrupt? Seems like it could be a good time to buy.

 

Also, does anyone know of a website that you can search and filter stocks by price?

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Have there been any rumblings of JC Penney is at risk of going bankrupt? Seems like it could be a good time to buy.

 

Also, does anyone know of a website that you can search and filter stocks by price?

 

They're definitely seen as circling the drain, although investors will cut them slack until after the Christmas shopping season.  Nobody would be surprised if they filed bankruptcy in the next year or so.

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  • 1 month later...

Yikes!  Dow down 271.  Is the bull market starting to hit the skids?

 

 

 

 

As an aside, Bloomberg, among other sites, feels compelled to illustrate up market days with happy traders, and down market days with stressed or sad traders.  It's such a bizarre cliche.  Presumably the editors assume that those who execute floor order trades are only happy when prices go up.  I read once where traders make a game of mugging for the photographers so their pictures will show up.

 

 

 

Sad trader, so you know the market was down:

 

iyzrZAyFePyA.jpg

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Yikes!  Dow down 271.  Is the bull market starting to hit the skids?

 

 

 

 

As an aside, Bloomberg, among other sites, feels compelled to illustrate up market days with happy traders, and down market days with stressed or sad traders.  It's such a bizarre cliche.  Presumably the editors assume that those who execute floor order trades are only happy when prices go up.  I read once where traders make a game of mugging for the photographers so their pictures will show up.

 

 

 

Sad trader, so you know the market was down:

 

iyzrZAyFePyA.jpg

 

"Dow is up but just got wife's AMEX bill."

 

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  • 2 months later...

fortunately, I'll have a bit of extra cash to throw at this. I'm on the fence as to whether or not it will be a good pick, but it won't be as much as a gamble as it would have been at 500 plus a share.

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fortunately, I'll have a bit of extra cash to throw at this. I'm on the fence as to whether or not it will be a good pick, but it won't be as much as a gamble as it would have been at 500 plus a share.

 

That was my thinking too - a lot easier to stomach at $75ish....

 

They are supposedly coming out with a lot of new stuff this year - Tim and the boys have been saying that for a while though, I hope they deliver !!

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I'm thinking they will be closer to 100. even that is better than some of the recent closings.

I try to keep my stock purchases to those under 50, the few times I've varied from that practice I've got burned.

it's worked out quite well for me so far.

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I don't know that Apple is a good buy. The market cap is $489 billion, so any gains are likely to be small. For the price to double, the market cap would be nearly a trillion dollars. I'm guessing that's not going to happen.

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