Where will all the people go?

[Simbha]

I was looking at some census data for metro areas today, and I just can't get over how much Houston has grown in the 15 or so years I've been here.

That got me thinking about the next 15 years. I know projections are suspect, but I've seen growth figures of between 1.5 to 2.5 million between now and 2025.

Where do you all think those people will be located?

[ToryGattis]

Mostly around Kingwood, The Woodlands, Katy, Sugar Land, and Pearland. Think Grand Parkway west of 45 (including the Tomball area), and Beltway 8 east of 59N and 59S.

[intencity77]

Westward, I imagine Fulshear/Simonton area will be the next area to become greatly "suburbanized" in the near future. A few years ago, there was an effort to extend Westpark Tollway from its present termination at Grand Parkway to Fulshear which would really help to spur new growth.

[Simbha]

Interesting that both of you think that the growth will be concentrated in the outskirts of what is now the metropolitan area. While I believe much of the growth will occur in the suburbs, I also foresee significant growth in the inner core of the city (e.g., the Inner Loop). Perhaps that's just wishful thinking for more urban density on my part, though...

[ToryGattis]

Interesting that both of you think that the growth will be concentrated in the outskirts of what is now the metropolitan area. While I believe much of the growth will occur in the suburbs, I also foresee significant growth in the inner core of the city (e.g., the Inner Loop). Perhaps that's just wishful thinking for more urban density on my part, though...

Oh, I definitely think the inner loop growth and densification will continue, but it will also continue to be a relatively small part of the overall metro growth. Less than 10%, maybe less than 5%. I don't know the analysis from the last 2010 vs. 2000 Census, but remember reading inner loop growth was only a small fraction.

[Houston19514]

Oh, I definitely think the inner loop growth and densification will continue, but it will also continue to be a relatively small part of the overall metro growth. Less than 10%, maybe less than 5%. I don't know the analysis from the last 2010 vs. 2000 Census, but remember reading inner loop growth was only a small fraction.

I found this intriguing, so I did the calculations this afternoon.

The result: the population growth in inner loop Houston is almost insignificant in the context of the overall metro growth. The total population growth inside the loop was only 13,028. Even if we loook only at the growing side of the inner loop (the west side -- west of the North Freeway, west of the South Freeway and including the CBD), the net growth was only 29,704. That is only 20% of the city's population growth and less than 2.5% of the total metro population growth. (For every additional person added to the west inner loop during the decade, we added 39 additional people elsewhere in the metro area.)

[ToryGattis]

Thanks for the analysis. It's even less than I suspected.

[Trae]

I found this intriguing, so I did the calculations this afternoon.

The result: the population growth in inner loop Houston is almost insignificant in the context of the overall metro growth. The total population growth inside the loop was only 13,028. Even if we loook only at the growing side of the inner loop (the west side -- west of the North Freeway, west of the South Freeway and including the CBD), the net growth was only 29,704. That is only 20% of the city's population growth and less than 2.5% of the total metro population growth. (For every additional person added to the west inner loop during the decade, we added 39 additional people elsewhere in the metro area.)

Of course, this is without the challenge numbers, where tens of thousands were supposedly missed in the eastern portions of the loop.

[brian0123]

While the inner loop numbers were small compared to the suburbs... it doesn't necessarily surprise me considering how large of an area is outside the loop, as well as the fact that commuting in this city (and suburb life) was easier even a couple years ago. I have friends who bought several years ago in the burbs... but are now kicking themselves they didn't move in the loop and are just making do with their situation and commutes for now.

I think the next set of census numbers will tell a different story and you will see an even accelerated growth in the loop. Our freeways continue to get more clogged every day (and there are no quick fixes for them), and eventually people reach a tipping point where they can't stand spending 2 hours every day of their life in a car (I know I did, and went from spending 1.5 hours a day to 10 minutes a day in the car).

[ToryGattis]

The commutes are getting worse, but it will take a lot to overcome the weak schools and expense of living inside the loop. And employers are also (unfortunately) starting to think about moving out to the suburbs to be closer to good schools and affordable new housing, like the new Exxon campus near the Woodlands. Houston's core is healthy, but I don't see it getting any more of the growth over the next decade than it did the last decade, especially with the Grand Parkway opening vast new areas to develop. If you look at the H-GAC jobs forecast, it shows little growth for downtown and uptown, and although TMC grows well (fed by employees from Pearland), the big majority of the job growth is outside the core, which means the residents filling those jobs are likely to be out there too.

I've said this on my blog before, but if Houston's wants its core to capture more job and residential growth, it needs to revamp Metro to subsidize private commuter bus/shuttle services competing to connect every neighborhood to every job center with nonstop 65+ mph service on a robust, expanded HOV/HOT lane network (inc. the 610 loop). If it's easy for employees from all over to get to jobs in our central job centers, employers will expand more here instead of in the suburbs, which, in turn, will attract more residents to the core who *do* want to be close to their jobs.

[Trae]

While the inner loop numbers were small compared to the suburbs... it doesn't necessarily surprise me considering how large of an area is outside the loop, as well as the fact that commuting in this city (and suburb life) was easier even a couple years ago. I have friends who bought several years ago in the burbs... but are now kicking themselves they didn't move in the loop and are just making do with their situation and commutes for now.

I think the next set of census numbers will tell a different story and you will see an even accelerated growth in the loop. Our freeways continue to get more clogged every day (and there are no quick fixes for them), and eventually people reach a tipping point where they can't stand spending 2 hours every day of their life in a car (I know I did, and went from spending 1.5 hours a day to 10 minutes a day in the car).

This is when mass transportation and expanding our regional rail system comes in (light rail and commuter rail). Growth in the Inner Loop area may accelerate, but people are going to continue moving to the suburbs in much greater numbers.