Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
crunchtastic

some not depressing jobs news

Recommended Posts

Only slightly more cheery than the article I read last week.

http://www.msnbc.msn...ss-going_green/

"We're # 1 !!! We're # 1 !!!... Oh @#$#% "

1-2% Job growth isn't so great. I mean yah.. woohoo, it's going up.. but still, that get's us back what? The jobs we've lost in just the last 3 months or so ? Your graphic projects by the end of the 2010, we will be back up to where we were end of 3Q 09. Still so much further to go.

Edited by Highway6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A closer inspection of the forecast shows predicted job losses through the 3rd quarter of 2010. Only the 4th quarter is predicted to actually increase the labor force by an amount equal to the 3rd quarter loss. Effectively, the prediction is for job losses in the first half of the year, and no losses in the 2nd half. Still, compared to the losses of 700,000 per MONTH in 2009, that is a marked improvement.

Any prediction past 2010 is not worth the paper it is written on. Remember the rosy predictions for 2010 back in 2007? How about Kudlow's prediction of DOW 50,000?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Effectively, the prediction is for job losses in the first half of the year, and no losses in the 2nd half. Still, compared to the losses of 700,000 per MONTH in 2009, that is a marked improvement.

Marked improvement as far as the bigger picture is concerned. Hitting rock bottom is an improvement over still going down, yes.

Still, Not much solace for those without a job now or those concerned about current job security. Sounds like depressing news to me.

Edited by Highway6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Only slightly more cheery than the article I read last week.

http://www.msnbc.msn...ss-going_green/

"We're # 1 !!! We're # 1 !!!... Oh @#$#% "

1-2% Job growth isn't so great. I mean yah.. woohoo, it's going up.. but still, that get's us back what? The jobs we've lost in just the last 3 months or so ? Your graphic projects by the end of the 2010, we will be back up to where we were end of 3Q 09. Still so much further to go.

If you accept that we'll never, ever again see the kind of job growth seen in the 80s and 90s (as I do), then relative to

the ongoing losses in other parts of the country, I'll take a couple of tentative quarters of 1.5%.

Edit: It is very depressing, but I believe it's the new normal, so on some level we have to accept

it. I consider it sheer luck that I've stayed employed in my business as long as I have. Also

I've been preparing myself for permanent under-employment. At my age it's the wise thing to do.

I feel bad for new grads with debt.

Edited by crunchtastic

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sounds like depressing news to me.

Me too. It sounds like the way you feel after finding a lifeboat after suffering through the terror of the Titanic sinking.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Me too. It sounds like the way you feel after finding a lifeboat after suffering through the terror of the Titanic sinking.

Sounds like the way you'd feel after 12 months without rescue on that Titanic lifeboat.

When your 'rock bottom' lasts the whole of 2010.. That's depressing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Want more depressing analysis? The civilian labor force is 154 million, an increase of 14 million over 10 years ago, or 1% per year. The best jobs forecast in that chart, around 2011-2012, only adds jobs at a rate of around 0.8%. If that were in fact the case, we'd have more unemployed people at the end of that expansion than we have today. And, considering how 401ks were decimated the last 2 years, it is likely to be even worse, as the shiny happy retired baby boomers depicted in the American Express commercials are neither shiny, happy, nor retired, but instead, still working at jobs recent grads hoped to take by now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I made at a minimum about $30k less this year than I anticipated. $50k on the high end. I expect more of the same for 2010.

Oh well, at least I have a job. (An all too common refrain these days.)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A closer inspection of the forecast shows predicted job losses through the 3rd quarter of 2010. Only the 4th quarter is predicted to actually increase the labor force by an amount equal to the 3rd quarter loss. Effectively, the prediction is for job losses in the first half of the year, and no losses in the 2nd half. Still, compared to the losses of 700,000 per MONTH in 2009, that is a marked improvement.

Any prediction past 2010 is not worth the paper it is written on. Remember the rosy predictions for 2010 back in 2007? How about Kudlow's prediction of DOW 50,000?

You probably didn't mean to use the term "labor force". You were probably referring to aggregate employment. The labor force in Texas and in Houston continues to increase at a rapid clip...which is problematic because it's amplifying the impact on unemployment and the unemployment rate. That's not so much of a problem in cities such as Atlanta, Chicago, or Los Angeles.

On the whole I suppose that it's the kind of problem that we want to have, but it still sucks to be me.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The labor force in Texas and in Houston continues to increase at a rapid clip..

Is Labor Force just a nice way of saying unemployed?

If labor force is increasing, that means layoffs still outpace hires, right ? Or am I misunderstanding ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And, considering how 401ks were decimated the last 2 years, it is likely to be even worse, as the shiny happy retired baby boomers depicted in the American Express commercials are neither shiny, happy, nor retired, but instead, still working at jobs recent grads hoped to take by now.

From my observations, the boomers have even fewer qualms than their parents did about mortgaging out their childrens' future by political means. And they have a large enough voting bloc to ensure that it happens.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is Labor Force just a nice way of saying unemployed?

If labor force is increasing, that means layoffs still outpace hires, right ? Or am I misunderstanding ?

Labor force is the count of people 16 years and older who want to work. As a subset of that are employed persons and unemployed persons.

Nationally, the labor force increases as a function of demographic factors, primarily fertility and immigration/emigration. Among cities, the labor force is driven primarily by economic conditions and quality of life.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

From my observations, the boomers have even fewer qualms than their parents did about mortgaging out their childrens' future by political means. And they have a large enough voting bloc to ensure that it happens.

The boomers have proven time and time again to be the most self-absorbed and selfish generation to have existed in the United States. No other cohort has done so much damage in the name of self-gratification than this group. Their generation is truly the first "me" generation. It's all about how it makes me feel or how it makes me react. Me, me, me. "Look at me, I changed the world in the sixties and seventies." "Look at me, I bankrupted our country's moral and ethical codes in the 80s." "Look at me, I overly coddled my children and ruined another generation in the 90s." "Look at me, I bankrupted our country by buying too much crap I couldn't afford in the 00s." "Look at me, I'm a huge burden on the next generation because I won't leave my job like a responsible citizen, and I won't simply die after I finally do (like my parents had the decency to do) in the 10s."

Then again, I may just be bitter because of my lost pay potential.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Labor force is the count of people 16 years and older who want to work. As a subset of that are employed persons and unemployed persons.

I curse the inexplicably large amount of Houstonian couples that procreated back in 1994.

I curse the national media spilling the beans with articles like "Houston is so great, Things arent so bad, Come get a job"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Then again, I may just be bitter because of my lost pay potential.

Or it might be because whether you pay for it directly or indirectly--or end up doing it yourself--somehow your parents will concoct a way to make you responsible for changing their diapers.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Or it might be because whether you pay for it directly or indirectly--or end up doing it yourself--somehow your parents will concoct a way to make you responsible for changing their diapers.

Though my parents are boomers, I've been fortunate in that their work ethic, sense of duty and selflessness more appropriately resembles that of the preceding generation, their parents. So, while they probably still won't die when they retire, they've already made arrangements for the cleanliness of their behinds. No, I'm definitely more annoyed at the "me"-inspired greed that drove the rest of the people in their generation - which ultimately unraveled the moral fabric of our nation.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Though my parents are boomers, I've been fortunate in that their work ethic, sense of duty and selflessness more appropriately resembles that of the preceding generation, their parents. So, while they probably still won't die when they retire, they've already made arrangements for the cleanliness of their behinds. No, I'm definitely more annoyed at the "me"-inspired greed that drove the rest of the people in their generation - which ultimately unraveled the moral fabric of our nation.

Take two reasonable and frugal individuals and inflict upon them multiple heart attacks, multiple bypass surgeries, multiple cases of pneumonia, multiple strokes, mysterious necrotic tissues in inconvenient places, a slipped disc, and a never-ending array of infections. Pair it all up with dementia and deafness so that your once-gentle parents get into fistfights with nurses trying to administer treatment, resulting in disqualification for medicare/medicaid assistance. It's a sure-fire way to deplete a seven-digit retirement savings.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Want more depressing analysis? The civilian labor force is 154 million, an increase of 14 million over 10 years ago, or 1% per year. The best jobs forecast in that chart, around 2011-2012, only adds jobs at a rate of around 0.8%. If that were in fact the case, we'd have more unemployed people at the end of that expansion than we have today. And, considering how 401ks were decimated the last 2 years, it is likely to be even worse, as the shiny happy retired baby boomers depicted in the American Express commercials are neither shiny, happy, nor retired, but instead, still working at jobs recent grads hoped to take by now.

I stayed in the market through the last two years and continued adding shares as fast as I could. My balance is now 20% higher than it was before the crash of late '08. If you didn't panic and sell anytime from Oct. 08 through June of '09 you should be in pretty good shape now. Of course the next few years are anyone's guess.

I'm still surprised at the 65-70 year old people we have at my company though. Don't these people save for retirement?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Take two reasonable and frugal individuals and inflict upon them multiple heart attacks, multiple bypass surgeries, multiple cases of pneumonia, multiple strokes, mysterious necrotic tissues in inconvenient places, a slipped disc, and a never-ending array of infections. Pair it all up with dementia and deafness so that your once-gentle parents get into fistfights with nurses trying to administer treatment, resulting in disqualification for medicare/medicaid assistance. It's a sure-fire way to deplete a seven-digit retirement savings.

Great. On top of being bitter, now I'm depressed.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The timing of this couldn't be any more awesome: Just found out my department is getting 're-organized' today!! Much muttering, averted eyes and slammed doors. Results allegedly to be made public tommorow. For now it appears to be limited to a particular group, but it's only noon.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I stayed in the market through the last two years and continued adding shares as fast as I could. My balance is now 20% higher than it was before the crash of late '08. If you didn't panic and sell anytime from Oct. 08 through June of '09 you should be in pretty good shape now. Of course the next few years are anyone's guess.

I'm still surprised at the 65-70 year old people we have at my company though. Don't these people save for retirement?

If you didn't panic and sell from 08 to 09, you'd be in pretty good shape...if you consider being down 23-25% from the 2007 highs "good shape". Your 20% premium includes the extra principle that you've pumped in "as fast as (you) could", and the profits gained from buying stocks that were down 40-50%, but are now only down 20-25%. Big difference, especially considering that this thread is largely about people who have lost jobs (and when they might get one back). Those people likely had to liquidate their portfolios to live on, not "adding shares as fast as (they) could".

Edited by RedScare

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

7 million lost jobs: Gone forever?

From CNN Money:

The unemployment rate, which stood at 10% in November, is expected to stay uncomfortably high for the foreseeable future. Some experts even suggest that the labor market won't be able to fully recover from the 7.2 million jobs lost since the start of 2008 before another recession and round of job losses.

Obviously this is nationwide.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Those people likely had to liquidate their portfolios to live on, not "adding shares as fast as (they) could".

Yep, that's me. And April will be a dark month because I'm going to have to face down tens of thousands of dollars of realized capital gains in addition to significant 1099 income for which the only withholding was forced by the liquidation of 401(k) accounts.

It's like my grandmother always said, that back during the Depression, if you had a job you were well off.' But Depression-era history ignores fortunate.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...