Census Annual Population Estimates

[AtticaFlinch]

Texas adds 3.9 million people during the last decade. Close to half a million were in the last year alone (12 months to July 1).

[Highway6]

Here's another article.....

http://www.realclear...ates_99702.html

No. 3 in percentage population growth in 2008-09 was giant Texas, the nation's second most populous state. Its population grew by almost half a million and accounted for 18 percent of the nation's total population growth. Texas had above-average immigrant growth, but domestic in-migration was nearly twice as high.

Polidata Inc. projects from the 2009 estimates that the reapportionment following the 2010 Census will produce four new House seats for Texas, one for Florida, Arizona, Utah and Nevada, and none for California for the first time since 1850. Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Illinois are projected to lose one each, and Ohio two.

[citizen4rmptown]

^^^^^I read that we will add 3 new house seats, so i wonder where those numbers came from.

[AtticaFlinch]

^^^^^I read that we will add 3 new house seats, so i wonder where those numbers came from.

Not to take this into the political wasteland, but Michael Barone, the author of the RCP piece, is a noted conservative who's a big fan of Bush Jr and Perry and the type of politics they espouse. His history suggests he lumps their politics and our state into one category and his seat gain estimates may just be wishful thinking on his part in his desire to increase his preferred form of governance. Take it with a grain of salt. Three seats is the much more likely outcome.

[Highway6]

Not to take this into the political wasteland, but Michael Barone, the author of the RCP piece, is a noted conservative

And is Polidata.org a noted conservative website as well? Looks like Barone is just citing their latest projection... and they are wavering on 3 or 4.

If you click the link, its obvious it's one big balancing act.. but Texas appears to have 3 other states above it that are also right on the line and that would need to shift before Texas falls from 4 to 3. It's all speculation at this point.. but It certainly doesn't seem like 4 instead of 3 is just Conservative wishful thinking. ( Unless of course, Polidata.org is just another cog in the Conservative's machine )( Which, you tell me if that is the case.. I don't know.. I've never heard of them... Seems like they're just an independent group running the numbers to me though. )

So, the states with good news here include clearly WA and MO. There is some good news for CA which had been close to losing a seat. The news for TX was mixed: it had been close to gaining only 3 seats but these projections keep it at a gain of 4 although the strength has decreased. There is also no good news for NC which fell several positions for a 14th seat. However, there is good news for SC as it gained position in the rankings to gain a 7th seat. The states with the smallest margins of persons include MO and MN, see detail below.

[AtticaFlinch]

And is Polidata.org a noted conservative website as well? Looks like Barone is just citing their latest projection... and they are wavering on 3 or 4.

If you click the link, its obvious it's one big balancing act.. but Texas appears to have 3 other states above it that are also right on the line and that would need to shift before Texas falls from 4 to 3. It's all speculation at this point.. but It certainly doesn't seem like 4 instead of 3 is just Conservative wishful thinking. ( Unless of course, Polidata.org is just another cog in the Conservative's machine )( Which, you tell me if that is the case.. I don't know.. I've never heard of them... Seems like they're just an independent group running the numbers to me though. )

So, the states with good news here include clearly WA and MO. There is some good news for CA which had been close to losing a seat. The news for TX was mixed: it had been close to gaining only 3 seats but these projections keep it at a gain of 4 although the strength has decreased. There is also no good news for NC which fell several positions for a 14th seat. However, there is good news for SC as it gained position in the rankings to gain a 7th seat. The states with the smallest margins of persons include MO and MN, see detail below.

I don't know anything about Polidata, just Michael Barone. Still, it does seem odd he matter-of-factly wrote the gain is four seats and also seemed to revel in the fact some Democratic strongholds were to lose some seats. Eh, maybe it's just the way I read it; I don't know. There are certain columnists whose words I can't ever take at face value. On the conservative side, George Will, Charles Krauthammer and Barone are among the biggies. I just don't trust them. They're very gifted at manipulating the English language and making biased claims appear to be objective.

Anyhow, it really doesn't matter much for the House if Texas gains four versus three seats and Massachusetts or New York loses one. The strongest gains in population were in the RGV and urban areas, all predominantly Democrat zones. Where it'll affect national politics more strongly will be in the electoral college apportionment. With four extra electoral votes, and considering Texas as a whole is generally conservative, we can expect to see more presidential campaigning here in 2012 than in 2008. This reapportionment may cause some dramatic changes in how the presidential race is run. Texas' changing demographics and larger stake in the game will make us much more important to both sides. Republicans will probably no longer take us for granted and Democrats will likely no longer write us off as a lost cause, and we'll see many, many, many more political ads than we were accustomed to seeing in the past. The happy days of being mostly ignored by the politik juggernaut is now behind us. This change will unfortunately make us a "battleground" state.

[Highway6]

I don't know anything about Polidata, just Michael Barone. Still, it does seem odd he matter-of-factly wrote the gain is four seats and also seemed to revel in the fact some Democratic strongholds were to lose some seats.

Here's some liberals strongholds quoting the same data. Enjoy.

NYT-

For its part, Election Data Services conducted six separate models to project 2010 population figures. All six of those models predicted Minnesota would lose a seat in this round of reapportionment. Five of the six gave Texas a fourth seat, while three calculated that Arizona will get a second seat.

Washington Post-

The gainers are, not surprisingly, primarily in the South and Southwest -- the two regions that have been growing fastest for much of the past two decades....

The losers -- again, not surprisingly -- come from the Northeast and industrial Midwest (aka Rust Belt).

Austin Statesman-

Texas would gain four congressional seats for the 2012 elections, according to an analysis of the estimates by Polidata LLC

He's not the only one who thinks at the moment that Texas will matter-of-factly gain 4 seats... And I dont think its any secret What states people are moving from and which states they are moving to... of course Republicans should enjoy that.

You guys better hope Mayor White can become Gov White, otherwise Dems arent going to have much of a say over how redistricting will distribute those extra 3 or 4 seats.

[AtticaFlinch]

You guys better hope Mayor White can become Gov White, otherwise Dems arent going to have much of a say over how redistricting will distribute those extra 3 or 4 seats.

I don't know. Geographically speaking, Texas is pretty well apportioned now, plus our state politicians tend to rise above the partisanship-for-the-sake-of-partisanship that seems to characterize national politics (excepting the fracas from a few years ago of course). Besides that, the governor has nothing to do with congressional districting. That's a legislative duty, and both houses of the state legislature are pretty evenly split right now. I think Texas will be redistricted fairly with either three or four new seats.

[Highway6]

Besides that, the governor has nothing to do with congressional districting.

That's what I thought but the Washington Post article I referenced made it seem like the Texas Gov race was a big deal and that if White doesnt win, Dems won't have any say at the redistricting table. ...Which doesn't bother me of course. ( Perhaps he didn't quite know what he was talking about )

Still.. with the Rs having a 20-12 lead over the Ds in the Texas House.... I don't see 4 being split 2 to 2.. Rs are either going up 3-1 or 2-1 depending on which way the Census winds blow. Likewise, I'm sure whatever states have the Dems in charge will be redistricting in such a way to make sure They get their +1, not the Rs

[AtticaFlinch]

That's what I thought but the Washington Post article I referenced made it seem like the Texas Gov race was a big deal and that if White doesnt win, Dems won't have any say at the redistricting table. ...Which doesn't bother me of course. ( Perhaps he didn't quite know what he was talking about )

Still.. with the Rs having a 20-12 lead over the Ds in the Texas House.... I don't see 4 being split 2 to 2.. Rs are either going up 3-1 or 2-1 depending on which way the Census winds blow. Likewise, I'm sure whatever states have the Dems in charge will be redistricting in such a way to make sure They get their +1, not the Rs

I don't know anything about the Chris Cillizza who wrote the article, but I'm fairly astounded by his ability to write about political affairs as if they're fantasy football stats.

His style of journalistic writing bugs the crap out of me.

[bachanon]

does anyone know if the census will shed greater light on population displacement from hurricane's rita & katrina?

[TheNiche]

I don't know. Geographically speaking, Texas is pretty well apportioned now, plus our state politicians tend to rise above the partisanship-for-the-sake-of-partisanship that seems to characterize national politics (excepting the fracas from a few years ago of course). Besides that, the governor has nothing to do with congressional districting. That's a legislative duty, and both houses of the state legislature are pretty evenly split right now. I think Texas will be redistricted fairly with either three or four new seats.

Take a closer look at that map. It was created by Republicans for Republicans. And while it is certainly true that some of the districts are effectively conceded to Democrats, you can rest assured that such concessions were made only in the strategic interests of the GOP. I suspect that one or possibly up to two additional concessions will be made following the 2010 Census and the 2010 midterm election, however that those will strengthen recently-weakened stronghold districts. On the whole--for better or worse--Republicans win out from our population growth.

[TheNiche]

Anyhow, it really doesn't matter much for the House if Texas gains four versus three seats and Massachusetts or New York loses one. The strongest gains in population were in the RGV and urban areas, all predominantly Democrat zones.

That only makes sense if the people moving into the RGV vote according to the regional tradition. That's unlikely.

Also, "urban areas" probably don't mean what you think that they mean. Pearland will most definitely count as an "urban area" per the Census definition.

[AtticaFlinch]

That only makes sense if the people moving into the RGV vote according to the regional tradition. That's unlikely.

Also, "urban areas" probably don't mean what you think that they mean. Pearland will most definitely count as an "urban area" per the Census definition.

While I realize it's no accurate gauge of political leanings, what I find interesting about this map (margin of victory map) is that it seems the most conservative areas in the state are the counties directly surrounding the major cities' primary counties. The strictly rural areas seem fairly moderate and evenly split with small margins of McCain victories. Very odd. Apparently (if I can extrapolate from the results of the presidential election), the most conservative people in the state live in the 'burbs, not the country.

[kylejack]

I don't know anything about the Chris Cillizza who wrote the article, but I'm fairly astounded by his ability to write about political affairs as if they're fantasy football stats.

His style of journalistic writing bugs the crap out of me.

I've hated that dude for a long time.

[LTAWACS]

How many did Houston gain?

[Subdude]

Are there new population estimates for Houston and Houston metro?

[Houston19514]

Are there new population estimates for Houston and Houston metro?

No. 2009 County and metro population estimates should come out in March; City estimates in July.