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lockmat

Hurricane History

Hurricanes  

6 members have voted

  1. 1. How many Category 3 or greater hurricanes will make US landfall this year?

    • 1
      1
    • 2
      2
    • 3
      2
    • 4
      1
    • 5
      0
  2. 2. End of 2010, how many cat 3 or greater 'canes will have made us landfall?

    • 7
      3
    • 8
      1
    • 9
      1
    • 10
      1
    • 11
      0
    • 12
      0
    • >13
      0


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At first I was trying to look for information to see what months Houston is most likely to have a hurricane, based on historical data. I have not found that out yet, but I did put this together.

Average Hurricanes - A category 3 or higher

5 years, from 2001-2005 --> 7 hurricanes in 5 years link (zero from '01-03. So really, it's 7 in two years)

10 years, from 1991-2000 --> 5 hurricanes link

10 years, from 1981-1990 --> 5 hurricanes link

10 years, from 1971-1980 --> 4 hurricanes link

10 years, from 1961-1970 --> 6 hurricanes link

10 years, from 1951-1960 --> 8 hurricanes link

10 years, from 1941-1950 --> 9 hurricanes link

10 years, from 1931-1940 --> 8 hurricanes link

10 years, from 1921-1930 --> 5 hurricanes link

10 years, from 1911-1920 --> 7 hurricanes link

10 years, from 1901-1910 --> 4 hurricanes link

10 years, from 1891-1900 --> 8 hurricanes link

10 years, from 1881-1890 --> 5 hurricanes link

10 years, from 1871-1880 --> 7 hurricanes link

10 years, from 1861-1870 --> 1 hurricanes link

10 years, from 1851-1860 --> 6 hurricanes link

med_gallery_723_64_42278.jpg

I did not look for that data for the past three years.

Edited by lockmat

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The reverse chronological graph bothers me. Left to right! But upon visual inspection without any statistical analysis I see no trend, it's pretty consistent.

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I wonder if the data showed a trend towards more hurricanes that this would have sparked more of a discussion? Not supporting global warming or climate change much...

Let's add a poll...

Edited by lockmat

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I'll chime in here for a sec...

First of all, whoever made the statement about hurricanes getting stronger due to global warming about threw me into convulsions. There is NO PROOF, NONE, that hurricanes are any stronger today than a thousand years ago. Hurricanes like Katrina have happened time and time again. Did we forget about Hugo, Andrew, Camille, and the Long Island Express??? Are there stronger hurricanes or more crap in the way? Stronger hurricanes or bigger populations? Even if hurricanes were getting stronger, this according to Dr. Chris Landsea of the NHC, we're talking about a 2 to 3% increase...which is negligible when dealing with winds over 100 mph. Second point here is that in seasons prior to 1963, we (the NHC) missed on average 3 storms a year. More hurricanes or better technology? Stronger hurricanes or better instrumentation? Who's to say that if a storm in 1867 produced 60 mph gusts, it was a true tropical system? For example, the March 1993 Super Storm. Produced a Category 1 wind and surge in the Florida Panhandle. in the early 20th century, that may have been labeled a hurricane and in reality it was anything but....

Back on topic...there are many factors that play into tropical cyclogenesis. Surface temps are the last ingredient on the list. The waters could be boiling, but if the upper level conditions are unfavorable for development, i.e, high wind shear aloft at 500 mb, tropical formation WILL NOT occur. El Nino and La Nina also play huge rolls. With La Nina years, the ITCZ is less likely to give birth to anything thanks to more uniform pressure patterns along 10 degrees north. Without throphs and ridges or areas of low and high pressure, little can get going.

As ferocious as hurricanes are, they are extremely delicate. They require perfect atmospheric cooperation at all levels. They are vertically stacked storms that that need a number of key elements...not just warmer sst's. What we have learned is that there appears to be a mulit-decadal cycle spanning 25 years or so. This last cycle started in 1995. These cycles, on average, produce more hurricanes than in years when we are not in a cycle of increase activity. This is apparent looking back at the number of storms in the decades of little activity (1970s, 80s, and early 90s) to what we have today. There was also another busy period in the 1940s (the upper Texas coast was hit 12 times that decade and it lasted through the 60s.) In about 15 years, you'll see hurricane activity die away. We'll see more years like 1983 (4 storms that year) and 1992 (7 storms that year). That should debunk any speculation on "global warming" having effects on tropical activity.

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