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Subdude

Have we passed the bottom?

  

36 members have voted

  1. 1. Have the markets hit their low?

    • Yes, it will be mainly up from here on out
      14
    • No, it's that dead cat bouncing
      22


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Since the markets made a rather heroic leap over the past week there is a bit of talk that this may mark the end of the bear market. Obviously it is too soon to tell, but what do you think? Are the stock market (and lagging, the economy) starting to resuscitate, or is it a false alarm, the famous dead cat bounce?

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It's bouncing at the moment, but I think that as we get deeper into spring and summer, it'll stagnate for a bit until the oct.

BUY!

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No just a bounce. We still have another big dip coming when the fate of checks and balances, raises her ugly head. More than the next market contraction, is the inflationary fallout, from all this money printing , that worries me most. People just think they are having issues now, wait until the inflation catches up with all this bailout crap. It's could very well be very ugly. Congress is desperate to get this paper mache' Trojan horse built before their jobs come up for renewal, so they can keep their jobs. Because if all this doesn't give the appearance of working come 11/10, they might as well be renting a UHaul, and they know it. So we are now stuck watching this shell game, and hope we survive it, with a few Oreos left.

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Since the markets made a rather heroic leap over the past week there is a bit of talk that this may mark the end of the bear market. Obviously it is too soon to tell, but what do you think? Are the stock market (and lagging, the economy) starting to resuscitate, or is it a false alarm, the famous dead cat bounce?

The market bounced because it finally got some straight talk from the government and the fed. It was categorically stated that the banks wouldn't be nationalized and as if to prove that the need for it was gone, that was backed up in the minds of investors by Bank of America posting a quarterly profit.

If the straight talk degenerates into political bungling, the gains we've made could collapse out from under us. We've got a long ways to go, and I don't know the path.

But I will say this. If I had funds that I intended to make a long-term investment with, I'd place them in a mixed basket of financial and energy stocks over the course of the next 9 months, about once every two weeks. No matter where the true bottom is, I'd probably average out really close to it in the context of the long haul.

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I'm voting bounce.

But just last week a couple of days before the rally I was thinking about converting some of the cash in my 401(k) into stocks, wondering if the 6,800 or so we were at would be the low. If I had, I would have done well.

That said, haven't lost very much because I liquidated most of my stocks early, and those I held on to (with the exception of EcoLab [ECL]) have made modest gains.

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Boing! Boing! Going down.................

Speculators are some sick bastards..........

Damn. Guess I shouldn't have cashed in all my assets on Monday and given them to my broker at the Stanford Financial Group and told them to invest heavily in GM and AIG.

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I believe we are at the bottom... things may actually slowly be improving.... it will take some time, though... it won't happen overnight.

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Bounce on the floor long enough, and it will crash under you. Yeah.

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Against all common sense, I tend to be ever the optimist. Show me a cloud that I don't point out the silver lining. So I was a bit surprised to see the sentiment that this had been just a bounce.

To put the crash and possible bounce into perspective, here is an updated version of a chart I've already posted several times in the bailout topic.

four-bears-large.gif

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We have moved from a false credit driving capitalistic machine to a ploddingly broke socialistic debacle. But it gets worse than that.

This year's deficit will be 2 trillion. Obama says he will cut future year deficits in half.

So...

2 Trillion(2009) + 1 Trillion(2010) + 1 Trillion(2011) + 1 Trillion(2012) = 5 Trillion

Of the 5 trillion, we will need the Chinese to purchase at least 3 trillion of our treasuries.

The Chinese have already invested 1 trillion. People say that the Chinese would never walk away from a 1 trillion dollar investment. But it's better to walk away from 1 trillion than to throw another 3 trillion at a debacle!

The Chinese will eventually realize that it's better to stop purchasing our treasuries!

Whether we go to a world currency, a UN currency, an Amero currency, or a Euro/Swiss Franc/Japanese Yen currency...the fiat U.S. dollar is dead.

The party is over. :(

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This chart is sort of the opposite of the ones I posted above. Instead of showing relative market declines, it shows relative recoveries from the bottom. Interesting that the current market best tracks the "Little Bull Market" of 1929-30.

road-to-recovery-large.gif

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