GreenStreet: Mixed-Use Development At 1201 Fannin St.

[houstonsemipro]

^^^ Those six restaurants and two major tenants can easily pull out, don't you think?

Besides, they're not going to have residential at the pavilions. Why? I tell you why, cause it's not going to work downtown. People rather live in Uptown then Downtown.

Furthermore, if they cancel the residential from the Pavilions project. What makes you think the Park Tower going to do? Do you really think when they breakground they going to build a 42 story tower? Hell, no! I bet you they going to scale that project back to 30-32 stories, maybe less. But they will build the Park Tower, just because of the new urban park downtown. Look for a scale back tower coming soon.

[RedScare]

^^^ Those six restaurants and two major tenants can easily pull out, don't you think?

Besides, they're not going to have residential at the pavilions. Why? I tell you why, cause it's not going to work downtown. People rather live in Uptown then Downtown.

Furthermore, if they cancel the residential from the Pavilions project. What makes you think the Park Tower going to do? Do you really think when they breakground they going to build a 42 story tower? Hell, no! I bet you they going to scale that project back to 30-32 stories, maybe less. But they will build the Park Tower, just because of the new urban park downtown. Look for a scale back tower coming soon.

As a general rule, no they cannot pull out easily. Numerous businesses inquire about new projects. Most do not act on it. The ones that are announced have made binding agreements to locate in the project. The developer then uses these binding contracts to convince the banks to lend them the money to build. For them to pull out will cost big bucks. The fact that the banks have agreed to loan HP $140 million shows that HP has valid tenant agreements lined up.

As for Park Tower, HP's getting rid of residential takes away competition for leases at Park Tower. It will actually increase the number of people looking at Park Tower instead of decrease. As usual, semipro's argument is exactly backward. This is not surprising, given that semipro's expertise is in making bad football predictions, not in construction financing and development.

I notice that those posters who actually work in development andconstruction do not seem worried about a few month delay in groundbreaking. I also noticed that my prediction about development grants to rehab the Sakowitz building came true. The only people predicting doom and gloom seem to be young posters with no knowledge of how project development and financing works. I give their posts the weight they deserve.

Feel free to prove me wrong with an actual fact.

[tierwestah]

Holy crap -- he's in San Antonio?!

I like visiting SA from time to time, but it's no place anyone with any appreciation for things urban would ever want to live. That city's about 30 years behind the curve in terms of urban development -- that's part of its charm. To dish on Houston's urban environment from San Antonio is really lame. tierwestah is officially discredited.

Say Dal, don't discredit me yet. I've only been in San Antonio for 11 months on an internship. Houston 3rd Ward is my home. Tierwester Street BABY!!! 77004

[musicman]

Besides, they're not going to have residential at the pavilions. Why? I tell you why, cause it's not going to work downtown. People rather live in Uptown then Downtown.

i personally would have to disagree. I doubt i would EVER live Uptown. For me, Downtown is more appealing.

[The Great Hizzy!]

I really wonder how some people on this forum handle disappointment in their private lives. Seriously. Talk about dangling from a thin piece of thread.

"Waaahhhh!"

[JJxvi]

I really wonder how some people on this forum handle disappointment in their private lives. Seriously. Talk about dangling from a thin piece of thread.

"Waaahhhh!"

When life gives Hizzy threads, he strangles whoever makes him mad...

[The Great Hizzy!]

Hush!

[TheNiche]

^^^ Those six restaurants and two major tenants can easily pull out, don't you think?

Besides, they're not going to have residential at the pavilions. Why? I tell you why, cause it's not going to work downtown. People rather live in Uptown then Downtown.

Furthermore, if they cancel the residential from the Pavilions project. What makes you think the Park Tower going to do? Do you really think when they breakground they going to build a 42 story tower? Hell, no! I bet you they going to scale that project back to 30-32 stories, maybe less. But they will build the Park Tower, just because of the new urban park downtown. Look for a scale back tower coming soon.

Actually, as long as the commercial components of HP go through, you shouldn't expect any impact on demand for Finger's project. Finger is planning such buildout quality and an amenity package as allows them to be the most expensive apartments in the city. They'd outclass the residential component of HP; they're in a different market.

If there were some adverse impact to Park One, say that there is a special option as part of the HP retail financing that would allow the deal to die completely if one or more components don't work out, and none of HP gets built, then you might expect to see nothing at all from Finger. They wouldn't just reduce the size of the project...they'd scrap it altogether (unless Hakeem was willing to renegotiate the land lease).

Frankly, there are so many possibilities and special considerations that have probably been woven into each of the major downtown deals that unless I were deep inside of one of the organizations, there's no way that I'd be able to account for it all by hypotheses alone. We're just going to have to sit back and wait.

[LTAWACS]

I knew this would not happen. They are all bungling maroons.

[nmainguy]

I knew this would not happen. They are all bungling maroons.

You knew? Are you clairvoiyant? Or perhaps you have mis-identified the "maroons"?

[Montrose1100]

The only people predicting doom and gloom seem to be young posters with no knowledge of how project development and financing works. I give their posts the weight they deserve.

Feel free to prove me wrong with an actual fact.

aaaaHA!

I am young and know nothing of project developement and financing, but I don't predict doom & gloom. And I don't over hype like houstonfella (no offense).

[houston-development]

with everything currently in place, there is a demand for about 10,000 residential units in downtown. when hp (along with other projects) moves forward, that number will increase.

if you dont think people want to live downtown, im willing to bet that you are a native houstonian.

am i right?

[C2H]

aaaaHA!

I am young and know nothing of project developement and financing, but I don't predict doom & gloom. And I don't over hype like houstonfella (no offense).

I would rather someone overhype than be negative and jump to conclusions.

[largeTEXAS]

with everything currently in place, there is a demand for about 10,000 residential units in downtown. when hp (along with other projects) moves forward, that number will increase.

if you dont think people want to live downtown, im willing to bet that you are a native houstonian.

am i right?

Good observation houston-development! I love how we Houstonians much of the time are our own worst enemy.

To all those who don't believe in Finger's deal or the Pavilions, that's fine. Both are moving forward and both will spur more development in the area. It is disappointing when there are delays, but these things happen with complex mixed use developments (happened with Victory and is happening with every other mixed use project I know if in town). Keep the faith alive. Opening date for Pavilions has not changed, Oct '08. Finger will break ground right after the 1st of the year. Believe it or not downtown is looking mighty fine of late. We might be in store for a lot more than we even know right now...

[TheNiche]

with everything currently in place, there is a demand for about 10,000 residential units in downtown.

I've seen that number thrown around a lot, but cannot seem to substantiate it. Three questions: 1) what is the source, 2) what is the demand schedule as it relates to price/rent of these housing units, and 3) considering the prices of all land that is available downtown and the cost of highrise construction, how much of this demand is financially feasible to supply?

[LTAWACS]

You knew? Are you clairvoiyant? Or perhaps you have mis-identified the "maroons"?

Yes. Yes. No.

[MiDTOWNeR]

Welcome to Houston, the 4th largest joke of a city in America. The city with no efficient transit options (i.e. rail), no amusement park, 600 sq miles of ghetto, low density, car-centric, unplanned neighborhoods, lack of progress, and etc......................................................

Can I use this as my signature?

[2112]

This is so funny. All along I've been thinking this thing was another Shamrock,that it would just keep getting delayed and never happen, but when I saw the announcement two weeks ago that financing was secured and it would be breaking ground soon, I thought to myself, "Well, maybe I was wrong. It looks like this thing really is going to happen."

BIG MISTAKE! And now only days, DAYS before groundbreaking, they delay it again... 'til February! And does anyone on here, who has watched the fate of visionary projects like this in Houston over the years, really think that come March, we will be seeing cranes above this site?

Believe me, I'd love to be proven wrong, and if there are cranes in March, you can certainly quote the above sentence and I will hang my head in shame. But I thought I was proven wrong a few weeks ago, and then at the last moment, in the final hour, the Houston Pavilions snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.

"...snatched defeat from the jaws of victory"

I love it man! In all of this damn dissapointment, at least you gave me a smile.

Pavillions will happen. Just watch.

[LTAWACS]

"...snatched defeat from the jaws of victory"

I love it man! In all of this damn dissapointment, at least you gave me a smile.

Pavillions will happen. Just watch.

I dont know... I hope so... only time will tell.

[houston-development]

I've seen that number thrown around a lot, but cannot seem to substantiate it. Three questions: 1) what is the source, 2) what is the demand schedule as it relates to price/rent of these housing units, and 3) considering the prices of all land that is available downtown and the cost of highrise construction, how much of this demand is financially feasible to supply?

i cant give out all of my information

1) im in the apartment business, so that number comes from personal and others research (including, but not limited to: hanover, morgan, finger, dinerstein, etc.). think of it this way, you have about 150,000 people working downtown today, so that equates to only 6%.

2) current occupancy is around 96% and getting $1.60+ psf. thats an extremely healthy market and on paper, can absorb plenty units.

3) thats the problem. prior to finger, no one wanted to be the trailblazer. if anyone but suttles owned the scamrock site, that deal would have been done a long time ago. hanover had a site under contract but pulled the plug only on gut instinct. at a minimum of $100 psf, doing anything short of a highrise is economically unfeasible.

its going to start happening. fingers two phases and woods hp deal.

we will find out if what appears to be a home run on paper translates into successful developments in reality.

[tamtagon]

its going to start happening. fingers two phases and woods hp deal.

we will find out if what appears to be a home run on paper translates into successful developments in reality.

It'll happen, and once the pump gets primed, it'll be a whole lot at once.

[bkjones98]

As a general rule, no they cannot pull out easily. Numerous businesses inquire about new projects. Most do not act on it. The ones that are announced have made binding agreements to locate in the project. The developer then uses these binding contracts to convince the banks to lend them the money to build. For them to pull out will cost big bucks. The fact that the banks have agreed to loan HP $140 million shows that HP has valid tenant agreements lined up.

As for Park Tower, HP's getting rid of residential takes away competition for leases at Park Tower. It will actually increase the number of people looking at Park Tower instead of decrease. As usual, semipro's argument is exactly backward. This is not surprising, given that semipro's expertise is in making bad football predictions, not in construction financing and development.

I notice that those posters who actually work in development andconstruction do not seem worried about a few month delay in groundbreaking. I also noticed that my prediction about development grants to rehab the Sakowitz building came true. The only people predicting doom and gloom seem to be young posters with no knowledge of how project development and financing works. I give their posts the weight they deserve.

Feel free to prove me wrong with an actual fact.

Amen.

[Houston19514]

I've seen that number thrown around a lot, but cannot seem to substantiate it. Three questions: 1) what is the source, 2) what is the demand schedule as it relates to price/rent of these housing units, and 3) considering the prices of all land that is available downtown and the cost of highrise construction, how much of this demand is financially feasible to supply?

This Residential Study is chock-full of information I think you will find interesting. (It's 3 years old already, but should still be applicable.)

[LTAWACS]

This Residential Study is chock-full of information I think you will find interesting. (It's 3 years old already, but should still be applicable.)

It likely is not. They put these out every year.

[Houston19514]

It likely is not. They put these out every year.

Then I'm sure you'll be posting a more-recent one for us??

[TheNiche]

It likely is not. They put these out every year.

Five years.

[TheNiche]

This Residential Study is chock-full of information I think you will find interesting. (It's 3 years old already, but should still be applicable.)

Look at Table 4 in that study. As houston-development aptly pointed out, only highrise buildings will fly in downtown proper with land prices as high as they are. The total highrise housing potential was calculated as 8,000 units for the combined downtown and midtown area. Of those, 4,800 units would have to be priced below $950 per month in order to capture all of those potentials. The remainder is 3,200 units, of which 800 units could not be assigned a price level because consumers responded that they didn't know what they would be willing to pay. So the 'safe' number if I were a lender would be 2,400, for BOTH downtown and midtown.

And if I were a lender looking at a project that would capture a sizable share of the market, 2,400 units may look like plenty by itself, but I'd want a more statistically-rigorous study that was site-specific. How many of those 2,400 units can be supported at prices as high as Finger wants to charge? And for that matter, of those units that are priced over $950 per month, are we looking at some respondents that would need a 2BR/2BA unit at that price? These are critical questions.

[houston-development]

very well thought out, niche.

the midtown market is VERY hot with little to no concessions being offered. camden is building 400 units next to the pierce elevated, farbs deal is about 7 months away from breaking ground and will consist of less than 180 units. there is another possible deal in an a+ midtown location but probably 12 months away. camdens superblock... well, i honestly dont know. they are in it for pennies on the dollar and regardless of when/what they decide to do, they will come out in good shape.

even throwing in fingers deal (assuming both phases eventually) and woods, these units "should" be absorbed in a timely fashion.

but again, this is all on paper and in theory.

5 years ago, we were in the exact same position. 5k of layoffs can be a real pain in the arse

[tierwestah]

Can I use this as my signature?

Nahh! It was just a rant. Just venting with frustration. Deep down, i do think the Pavilions will happen. I'm going to try to reframe from those negative type of posts from now on because i really do think Houston is a great city.

[Guest danax]

It'll happen, and once the pump gets primed, it'll be a whole lot at once.

Yes, and it's exciting to hear that we're primed for highrise residential, even if it takes awhile to get going. Am I correct to assume that Midtown is approaching the same PSF level that would warrant highrises?