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12834 Tosca Ln.


retromodernjeff

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Sign of what's coming and well already here. Just saw this listed for auction December 2/08 for $339,500, but shows its worth $185,000. Probably won't even get that. May be a good buy for someone but most likely just as re-muddled on the inside. Look for the Memorial Bend McMansions to be next on the forclosure lists, and all that drops the property values just as quick as they were propped up. The crazy inflated property values are over. Just like California and Nevada, big time double and triple jumps in values are not sustainable. Prices will go back to around -4 or so years.

The positive twist is that this should effectively kill the McMansion building in MB. Read a great book (Long Beach Architecture) on this very thing happening in Long Beach CA years ago. A downturn saved a whole lot of real architecture and therefore minimized Faux Chateuxs.

And on that topic, here is a great article on McMansions http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200803/subprime

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Sign of what's coming and well already here. Just saw this listed for auction December 2/08 for $339,500. Probably won't even get that. May be a good buy for someone but most likely just as re-muddled on the inside. Look for the Memorial Bend McMansions to be next on the forclosure lists, and all that drops the property values just as quick as they were propped up. The crazy inflated property values are over. Just like California and Nevada, big time double and triple jumps in values are not sustainable. Prices will go back to around -4 or so years.

The positive twist is that this should effectively kill the McMansion building in MB. Read a great book (Long Beach Architecture) on this very thing happening in Long Beach CA years ago. A downturn saved a whole lot of real architecture and therefore minimized Faux Chateuxs.

And on that topic, here is a great article on McMansions http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200803/subprime

This has nothing to do with Houston. Prices have not dropped here.

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Yes they have, its sellers who are always behind the curve when it comes to realizing the selling prices are lower than what they want them to be. The other stats are already proving this out.

I don't know what you do for a living, but apparently it isn't real estate. Houston had the second best October on record. EVER! How is that anywhere close to the nightmare that your article paints as the current climate? I am sure it is horrible in other places... just not in Houston.

1108_1.jpg

Many places are down by 40% or more... the same places that shot up 100 and 200%. If you look at the diagram above, you will notice that there has not been large increase in value... there is no bubble to pop. You should also notice that the diagram is an upward trend not a downward spiral. Try not to be overcome with the doom and gloom the media preaches.

(FYI: September posted the highest prices ever for any September in Houston)

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Statistics...and damn statistics....an article in this week's Chronicle says that yes, average prices are up in Houston's market but that is likely skewed by the fact that higher priced home sales are remaining more steady while lower priced ones are still in the tank. A drive through most any Houston neighborhood will tell you it's a buyer's market right now. You can put any spin you want on it but the real estate market is flat here right now to say the least.

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Sign of what's coming and well already here. Just saw this listed for auction December 2/08 for $339,500, but shows its worth $185,000. Probably won't even get that. May be a good buy for someone but most likely just as re-muddled on the inside. Look for the Memorial Bend McMansions to be next on the forclosure lists, and all that drops the property values just as quick as they were propped up. The crazy inflated property values are over. Just like California and Nevada, big time double and triple jumps in values are not sustainable. Prices will go back to around -4 or so years.

The positive twist is that this should effectively kill the McMansion building in MB. Read a great book (Long Beach Architecture) on this very thing happening in Long Beach CA years ago. A downturn saved a whole lot of real architecture and therefore minimized Faux Chateuxs.

And on that topic, here is a great article on McMansions http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200803/subprime

Who are you trying to fool? Without even seeing it, I'd say the lot value alone is probably worth more than what you say.

I know, I know, you're one of those guys,who knows someone who bought a house once, or maybe you even did,

and now you are an expert. Carlton Sheets anyone?

I get "experts" like you all the time trying to tell me about homes, and I've been in the new home business for about 10 years and I for sure aint no expert, not like you.

CyKat

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Who are you trying to fool? Without even seeing it, I'd say the lot value alone is probably worth more than what you say.

I know, I know, you're one of those guys,who knows someone who bought a house once, or maybe you even did,

and now you are an expert. Carlton Sheets anyone?

I get "experts" like you all the time trying to tell me about homes, and I've been in the new home business for about 10 years and I for sure aint no expert, not like you.

CyKat

Nobody is trying to fool anyone. You don't need a real-estate degree or a talk-radio show to know that houses are only worth what someone is willing to pay for them.

With the sheer number of them sitting on the market currently, it appears that sellers are asking more than what buyers are ready to pay.

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sdmarc and scott08 are correct. If one has been tracking properties for any length of time, its obvious. Realtors have a very big interest in spinning the market to something its not. And just because the property tax shows what hcad thinks its worth does not mean it actually is worth that, its only worth what someone will pay and it seems right now that is a lot less than sellers are willing to grasp.

scott08, maybe you can end up with that Memorial area mod you have been after before the prices went out of control.

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sdmarc and scott08 are correct. If one has been tracking properties for any length of time, its obvious. Realtors have a very big interest in spinning the market to something its not.

Exactly... and if you look at Memorial Bend, specifically, there are several McMansions that were built and are just sitting there, unsold. We're not talking a few weeks - I can think of one example new construction (that is also situated well and not on the feeder) that has been on the market for nearly a year. There are others that have been on the market for 6+ months

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We're getting off on a tangent here...but down in the central city, an alarming (to me) number of new construction townhouses are sitting in various unsold/unfinished stages of completion. There are at least four or five old Waterhill Homes complexes that I know of that just stopped building when they went bankrupt, I feel really sorry for the handful of folks who bought one of the finished units that are now surrounded by partially built hulks or weeds. Even well established builders like Urban Lofts have just stopped building on their projects and the finished units have been there for months. A year ago, people were still snapping these things up as soon as they broke ground. Single family homes may be doing a bit better, but here in the Heights there is hardly a street without at least one For Sale sign on it. It's a buyer's market but many potential buyers are just too scared to move right now.

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Guys, exactly! I am happy Texasdago commented on MB. I have been looking at this for a while. What I believed happened is that a few builders saw an opportunity (or so they thought) to jump in there buy up some properties and tear down. Then build Faux Chateuxs that mulitplied up the $/sqft prices artifically with a couple of sales. That in turn made some feel that their properties were worth more than they really were. Some frenzied buyers have now overpaid. Now those McMansions will be the drivers of the prices back down. You just have to look at the current listings prices for homes and land and DOM to see the confusion now, they are all over the place.

Look at the Chron real estate section and count how many pictures are new contruction, look at any weekend open houses and see how many are new construction, they are like a virus that no one wants or at least can't get trick finacing for anymore. I read an article that a new booming business is heavy equipment auctions from the bankrupt builders.

A few McMansion builders were the cause. Man it always comes back to the new home builders, big or small. Objects of destruction :angry2:

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We're getting off on a tangent here...but down in the central city, an alarming (to me) number of new construction townhouses are sitting in various unsold/unfinished stages of completion. There are at least four or five old Waterhill Homes complexes that I know of that just stopped building when they went bankrupt, I feel really sorry for the handful of folks who bought one of the finished units that are now surrounded by partially built hulks or weeds. Even well established builders like Urban Lofts have just stopped building on their projects and the finished units have been there for months. A year ago, people were still snapping these things up as soon as they broke ground. Single family homes may be doing a bit better, but here in the Heights there is hardly a street without at least one For Sale sign on it. It's a buyer's market but many potential buyers are just too scared to move right now.

The winter is historically a slow time and is almost always a buyers market. Don't confuse the trend for winter slow downs with the doom and gloom economic slow down.

National home builders are going out of business, which will only help Houston's market. Royce Builders who dumped a ton of cash into Phoenix's bubble and crash market should bare no market revelations on Houston's housing.

Rents are up big. Oil money is coming into Houston Real Estate since they have stopped drilling. National Home builders have stopped building, yet new homes are needed every year with a disproportionate amount needed in Houston, because of our good local economy. "Fewer homes will be built this year than were built in 1990 -- 440,000 -- yet we have 60 million more people in the country. Each year roughly 860,000 new households get formed in the country, almost double the number of new homes. Soon the price of mortgage money, the single biggest determinant of home buying, will be one-third less than it was two weeks ago. "

I think things are looking good for the summer of '09 and great for 2010.

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  • 4 months later...

Sign of what's coming and well already here. Just saw this listed for auction December 2/08 for $339,500, but shows its worth $185,000. Probably won't even get that.

12834 Tosca is still listed as the same owner as last November. I don't think anything in the Bend has sold for less than $200K during that time. Care to revise your statement?

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I believe a builder owns it, lets see how long they can hold on paying out money on it, the only thing they have going is that it still has a homestead tax exempt on it from the previous owner. Certainly another MB mcmansion will not sell either. Just add to that list of 6 plus empty lots. I am also waiting for the 417 Mignon owner to finally give up too, obvioulsy a year or so at $417,000 is not going to sell.

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  • 2 weeks later...

There's a cool mod east from there, next to a huge newly constructed house on the opposite side of Tosca. Even the stone walkway is really sweet. It's one of my all-time favorite Houston houses. I think it's something like "12823(?)". I really love that neighborhood. :wub:

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  • 8 months later...

Sign of what's coming and well already here. Just saw this listed for auction December 2/08 for $339,500, but shows its worth $185,000. Probably won't even get that.

12834 Tosca is still listed as the same owner as last November. I don't think anything in the Bend has sold for less than $200K during that time. Care to revise your statement?

There were 18 sales in 2009 in Memorial Bend for homes built before 2000. The average sales price was 174 sqft. 339,500 might be a good starting price. Has it sold yet?

Prices in this neighborhood have gone from 118 per sq ft in 2005 to 179 per sqft in 2009. Seems to me that the areas prices have held up pretty well.

CyKat

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  • The title was changed to 12834 Tosca Ln.

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