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Election Night 2008

editor

By editor
in National Politics

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BryanS

BryanS

Posted
Posted
Obama is leading in NC and FL with about 60% of the vote counted in each. It's still tight. No call yet.

Speaking of NC, was anybody surprised that Elizabeth Dole went down (politically speaking, you know)?

No. She played the religious right card, too far, and got BURNED.

This ad turned back the tide:

Never bare false witness.

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crunchtastic

crunchtastic

Posted
Posted
Texas just went to McCain, but it is currently only 53-46. Not nearly as red as it used to be.

I think it was Trae who mentioned it earlier about 2012. If Obama can close the gap to single digits, and assuming demographic trends to younger and more Hispanic voters, could Texas be the next big swing state? Hell, we used to be blue, like most of the south before the civil rights act.

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Porchman

Porchman

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Posted
No. She played the religious right card, too far, and got BURNED.

This ad turned back the tide:

Never bare false witness.

OMG! (Oh, I'm sorry I don't mean to be Godless)

I can see how this might play in Anderson and Franklin, but not so much in Durham.

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TheNiche

TheNiche

Posted
Posted
I think it was Trae who mentioned it earlier about 2012. If Obama can close the gap to single digits, and assuming demographic trends to younger and more Hispanic voters, could Texas be the next big swing state? Hell, we used to be blue, like most of the south before the civil rights act.

I think that the answer is: it depends. Who's in the running?

Already, at a national level, there looks to be a fair bit of backslapping and hubris among the Democratic party, who seemingly are forgetting that they actually managed to lose against George W. Bush, and not once but twice (out of three ;)). The difference: either it is that they ran a popular candidate for once, or as I suspect, it is that the McCain campaign systematically imploded on itself. It certainly isn't as though McCain didn't have a chance at certain junctures--but he blew it.

What if it had been McCain/Guiliani? Or McCain/Romney, which given the financial mess, would've probably been appealing? What if Colin Powell had run?

It's hard to predict who the next big leader within the Republican Party will be, but the most effective and popular leaders are born of crisis. I'd suggest to committed Democrats that they be watchful and not take the least bit of progress for granted. The next time won't be viewed as such a momentous occasion and probably will not generate the same kind of motivated turnout. The further back the pendulum is pulled, the further back it will swing.

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Trae

Trae

Posted
Posted
You wish. Get real, man.

I wish? Look at it now. Obama down to single-digits. Even Clinton only lost by less than five points in Texas. With all of the people from the Northwest and California moving to Texas, as well as Hispanic voters, it shouldn't be that big of a surprise.

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BryanS

BryanS

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Posted
I think that the answer is: it depends. Who's in the running?

Already, at a national level, there looks to be a fair bit of backslapping and hubris among the Democratic party, who seemingly are forgetting that they actually managed to lose against George W. Bush, and not once but twice (out of three ;) ). The difference: either it is that they ran a popular candidate for once, or as I suspect, it is that the McCain campaign systematically imploded on itself. It certainly isn't as though McCain didn't have a chance at certain junctures--but he blew it.

What if it had been McCain/Guiliani? Or McCain/Romney, which given the financial mess, would've probably been appealing? What if Colin Powell had run?

It's hard to predict who the next big leader within the Republican Party will be, but the most effective and popular leaders are born of crisis. I'd suggest to committed Democrats that they be watchful and not take the least bit of progress for granted. The next time won't be viewed as such a momentous occasion and probably will not generate the same kind of motivated turnout. The further back the pendulum is pulled, the further back it will swing.

But what happened in 1980... and then 1984? The pendulum swung in 1980... and even further in 1984... How many states did Mondale win in 1984? 1 maybe 2?

No Palin? Palin 2012? Palin, the new leader of the Republican party?

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CoolBuddy06

CoolBuddy06

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Posted
I wish? Look at it now. Obama down to single-digits. Even Clinton only lost by less than five points in Texas. With all of the people from the Northwest and California moving to Texas, as well as Hispanic voters, it shouldn't be that big of a surprise.

Maybe. But I'll never bank on Texas if I am the candidate. Demographics change very slowly. So maybe in 12/16 years... And it means that those new voters will vote Democratic. Tough call there.

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musicman

musicman

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I am looking at the results on MSN; it looks like all metro areas, even in red states are blue. Are city people always liberal? This is new to me.

lots of straight party voting esp in early voting....that's what put many of the local races over the top. the judges, who were unknown to most, are now democratic.

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TheNiche

TheNiche

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But what happened in 1980... and then 1984? The pendulum swung in 1980... and even further in 1984... How many states did Mondale win in 1984? 1 maybe 2?

No Palin? Palin 2012? Palin, the new leader of the Republican party?

Yeah, I suppose you also think that white people are going to riot in the streets, eh? :rolleyes: I'll grant you, Palin would meet a Mondale-like defeat. It ain't gonna happen, though.

As I said before, it depends on who does run. And I neither of us knows the answer to that. What I can tell you is that McCain is actually winning states (plural) and that the popular vote is reasonably close. A Mondale analog he is not...which is surprising to me, frankly, given how polished Obama was.

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BryanS

BryanS

Posted
Posted
Yeah, I suppose you also think that white people are going to riot in the streets, eh? :rolleyes: I'll grant you, Palin would meet a Mondale-like defeat. It ain't gonna happen, though.

As I said before, it depends on who does run. And I neither of us knows the answer to that. What I can tell you is that McCain is actually winning states (plural) and that the popular vote is reasonably close. A Mondale analog he is not...which is surprising to me, frankly, given how polished Obama was.

I'm not comparing McCain to Mondale. I am comparing Barack Obama to Reagan, 1980. And whoever the unlucky TBD Republican candidate is in 2012, could see a Mondale-style defeat if Obama proves effective.

By the sound of it (at least over these past few months)... you'd think Palin was the next Savior of the Republican party... I'm surprised that Republicans would be so quick to dump her...

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RedScare

RedScare

Posted
Posted
I am looking at the results on MSN; it looks like all metro areas, even in red states are blue. Are city people always liberal? This is new to me.

Well, when the GOP vice presendential candidate states that rural America is 'Real America', and that the city dwellers are unpatriotic, I don't know why this would strike you as surprising.

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