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Hurricane Ike


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Word !!

You know, it will be quite interesting to see what the seawall does. Galvestonians, including Mayor Thomas this morning, love to tout their 17 foot seawall. Well, here is the 17 foot swawall...

SW07.jpg

But, here is that seawall today...

16kd101-flood-wall.jpg

Perhaps half that. If the 15 to 20 foot surge materializes as some are predicting, it will eclipse the now 9-10 foot seawall.

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I ended up having to work over the whole weekend but didn't anticipate having power, so I was driving to SA when you wrote this post. I took Westpark Tollway and then FM 1093 to Eagle Lake, then US 90-A to Seguin. 90-A is a two-lane highway (one lane each way) but many evacuees were using it as a uni-directional one-way highway, driving upwards of 85 mph, slowing down and swerving back into the right lane only when there was any oncoming traffic. I watched as one head-on collision that was only barely averted.

That's the same exact route that I had plotted out in my head should I feel the need to leave. How long did it take you to get to San Antonio?

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I know that statement was from the Weather Service, but I've been reading the blog that excerpted it for the last couple of days and it's the most panic-inducing weather read I've ever seen. If you're a fan of disaster books, it's worth bookmarking.

"Certain death" has made cnn.com headlines. Let the panic begin...though honestly, in this case these people really should get the he$$ out

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I checked back tonight to see that dry air patch growing. I think Ike's going to be weaker in the next advisory. We'll see. The goal is to get a sub-category 3 hurricane before landfall.

"Certain death" has made cnn.com headlines. Let the panic begin...though honestly, in this case these people really should get the he$$ out

It's time for them to stop serving burgers. The party keeps getting bigger.

Edited by westguy
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I checked back tonight to see that dry air patch growing. I think Ike's going to be weaker in the next advisory. We'll see. The goal is to get a sub-category 3 hurricane before landfall.

Bingo. What's weird is that it seems to be really firing up outside of that dry air - hopefully it'll keep it from intensifying. There's also some hope that landfall will keep shifting further east

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Bingo. What's weird is that it seems to be really firing up outside of that dry air - hopefully it'll keep it from intensifying. There's also some hope that landfall will keep shifting further east

I wonder if the slot you're seeing is the building of a new eye, as described in that blog on the Weather Underground. The guy said something about the storm forming a new eye.

KTRK just reported that Lowes and Home Depot are closing tonight, so if you don't have your stuff, you may be SOL.

I'm watching streaming on KTRK because KHOU's wouldn't load. From what I could tell from the startup, though, it would have been really really small anyway.

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I wonder if the slot you're seeing is the building of a new eye, as described in that blog on the Weather Underground. The guy said something about the storm forming a new eye.

KTRK just reported that Lowes and Home Depot are closing tonight, so if you don't have your stuff, you may be SOL.

I'm watching streaming on KTRK because KHOU's wouldn't load. From what I could tell from the startup, though, it would have been really really small anyway.

There was a pinhole of an eye there very briefly, but disappeared - who knows it Ike will ever get one, but let's hope not. I'm still curious as to why they expect it to intensify right up to the point of landfall, though... Warm waters, sure, but I would think you'd see some weakening once a portion of the hurricane is over land

We saw a sign at Home Depot's off 610 near the Galleria saying they would close at 9:30 a.m. on Friday. Maybe they changed their plans? I didn't even realize they opened that early

Edited by OkieEric
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Sure, why not?

It's gonna be dark when all the good action shots are happening! :P

Have you guys been able to get to http://hidefromthewind.org? It will tell you projected wind speeds for the different zip codes around town. It does updates also.

The site is http://www.houstonhidefromthewind.org/ and it appears that their database is at the moment. The site was barely keeping up with the load earlier today.

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It's been trying to build the eye for several days. Ike was in an eyewall replacement cycle when it hit Cuba, but it was disrupted by land. Since then, the two eyewalls have been fighting each other for dominance, which kept the hurricane from strengthening. This helped us a lot because Ike was sitting over the infamous Loop Current while this was happening. The small eye is gone now, and the large one is struggling to organize. I think this is just dry air because otherwise that would be the mother of all eyes.

I'm probably wrong.

ETA, the update came early and they said dry air. Otherwise they made no adjustments to the forecast except a slight nudge to the right. I'm waiting to check the hidefromthewind site.

Edited by westguy
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Bingo. What's weird is that it seems to be really firing up outside of that dry air - hopefully it'll keep it from intensifying. There's also some hope that landfall will keep shifting further east

Latest advisory has it as a Cat2 at landfall rapidly weakening to a Cat1.

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It won't make it as far as Rita, and it probably will have the surge associated with a storm one or two categories stronger. A slight jog to the left will change everything for the southeastern part of this region. Read Master's blog about the amount of energy Ike is carrying.

Edited by westguy
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By the way, Masters doesn't mention the depth of the water, and I doubt the computer models can really factor it in. We have a much wider shelf up here than in Port Lavaca, so the surge potential is greater for a storm equally as strong as Carla. The water is plenty warm, so I'm curious to see how a big hurricane responds to it. The little ones (such as Alicia) are really nourished by the shallow water, but will Ike need deep water to sustain itself? It may not even be there long enough for us to find out.

BTW, at hidefrom the wind, everyone's went down, but mine is among the lowest at 65 mph. :P

Edited by westguy
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Do y'all really think a storm 500 miles across follows the straight line that is printed on those maps? Do you know that at 24 hours out, these storms can land 50 miles to either side of that straight line? Just curious, cuz several of these posts seemed to place great significance in the fact that the 10 pm forecast is 1 to 2 miles east of the 7 pm forecast. 1 to 2 miles...in a storm with a 115 mile wide hurricane wind path.

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Do y'all really think a storm 500 miles across follows the straight line that is printed on those maps? Do you know that at 24 hours out, these storms can land 50 miles to either side of that straight line? Just curious, cuz several of these posts seemed to place great significance in the fact that the 10 pm forecast is 1 to 2 miles east of the 7 pm forecast. 1 to 2 miles...in a storm with a 115 mile wide hurricane wind path.

Red, I'm very aware that this is a large storm. And I realize that a 10 mile shift to the East does not seem that significant, but I think that we are all hoping and praying that Houston will be on the left or weaker side of the storm, and any indication that the storm is moving more to the East than was expected a few hours ago, gives hope that the devistation to the Greater Houston area will be less than first predicted.

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Do y'all really think a storm 500 miles across follows the straight line that is printed on those maps? Do you know that at 24 hours out, these storms can land 50 miles to either side of that straight line? Just curious, cuz several of these posts seemed to place great significance in the fact that the 10 pm forecast is 1 to 2 miles east of the 7 pm forecast. 1 to 2 miles...in a storm with a 115 mile wide hurricane wind path.

wait, what? This storm is not 20 pixels wide?

WTH?

BUSH WILL BURN FOR THIS!

flipper

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Red, I'm very aware that this is a large storm. And I realize that a 10 mile shift to the East does not seem that significant, but I think that we are all hoping and praying that Houston will be on the left or weaker side of the storm, and any indication that the storm is moving more to the East than was expected a few hours ago, gives hope that the devistation to the Greater Houston area will be less than first predicted.

Oh, OK. I just thought that maybe everyone was rooting for it to go over crunchtastic's house.

Carry on.

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Red, I'm very aware that this is a large storm. And I realize that a 10 mile shift to the East does not seem that significant, but I think that we are all hoping and praying that Houston will be on the left or weaker side of the storm, and any indication that the storm is moving more to the East than was expected a few hours ago, gives hope that the devistation to the Greater Houston area will be less than first predicted.

Hey if the winds can keep dropping as the dirty side keeps shifting eastward, all the better.

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Ike seems perfectly tame now that I look back at the National Weather Service advisory before Katrina hit:

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT

LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL

FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY

DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.

PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD

FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE

BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME

WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A

FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH

AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY

VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE

ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE

WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN

AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING

INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY

THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW

CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE

KILLED.

I haven't seen anything about livestock in peril from projectiles in the Ike advisories.

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Ike seems perfectly tame now that I look back at the National Weather Service advisory before Katrina hit:

I haven't seen anything about livestock in peril from projectiles in the Ike advisories.

ONLY THE BLOOD OF A YOUNG RAM WILL SPARE US

FROM GAIA'S WRATH. THIS IS GOING TO BE MUCH

WORSE THAN THE TIME STEVE BACKED INTO THE

ELECTRIC POLE BEHIND THE GARAGE AND POWER WAS

OUT ALL AFTERNOON AND YOU MISSED THE ROCKETS

GAME ON TV. HAVE YOU EVER DRUNK WARM BEER?

NOT FUN. LIKE WE SAID, HUMAN SUFFERING.

Isn't this his place?

DrunksWithGuns.jpg

I need me one of those signs!

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So this is either something you already know (if you're also up) or something outdated, but... slightly dramatic 1am shift west to previous guidance tracks. Don't think this dashes my hopes and expectations of moving the storm east of us, but I've never been able to figure out how directional shifts in this storm correlate with ultimate landfall odds. Speed has always been the messy factor.

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KPRC was at their best in fear mongering again late Thursday night when Billingsly said power transformers snap and fail around 70 mph wind speed and it may take weeks before power is back on for most people.

I was a kid when Alicia hit and power came back within 2 days. We lived about 2 miles from the St. Thomas campus at the time and I can clearly recall going to sightsee the Dunlavy overpass on HWY 59 where people were swimming and using small boats in the 5-10 ft of water in the freeway to pass the time when the lights were out. 25 years ago they did not have the technology to find exact locations of power failure as they do now and HL&P was a regulated and much smaller organization than the now deregulated industry which is much larger.

This is the 4th largest city in the US and not having power for weeks would cripple the national economy. I would think the Port/refineries will get top priority but after that it will be the people.

Shame on KPRC again.

As for KTRK, least this time Wayne Dolcefeno was actually on the Gulf with some choppy waves instead of going to the east side and acting like the sub 39 mph winds of Rita were over 100 mph.

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They said they made a mistake with the pressure reading earlier(it's really 953)...turns out now that it could be a category 3 at landfall. They said Ike will be an Alicia, not a Rita. :huh:

don't worry if you wait long enough they will change it back to a 2, and then a 1, and then. . ., etc.

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Here is the computer model chart for 7 am.

at200809_model_zoom.gif

The good news (for Houstonians) is that the NHC's two favorite models, the GFDL and HWRF, predict a Galveston landfall, with a path running up the west side of Galveston Bay. The bad news would be that the other 4 models predict a more westerly path, either landing at San Luis Pass or Freeport. Suffice to say that with landfall about 18 hours away, "Houston" metro will sustain a direct hit, with winds in the 75 to 100 mph range.

Freeways are empty. Those that want out are pretty free to do so. In other news, the AP is commenting on Houston and Harris County's decision to "stare down" Ike.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080912/ap_on_re_us/ike

It would be my hope that after we show that we can do this, that the City and County, with help from state legislators on county building codes, conduct an education campaign on how to retrofit area homes to sustain high winds, so that in future storms people are even more confident in riding them out.

In the meantime, enjoy your day off. I'm going to go mow the grass in my drainage ditch, then kick back and wait.

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8a report:

Okay, I we're watching this news conference with the mayor and all of these city and county officials. They're showing this pier in Galveston that has already been smashed and the storm hasn't even hit; debris from it is scattered along seawall drive. Why is water already smashing over the seawall which I think is about 15' high. Streets in Galveston are already flooding.

I really think this is gonna be bad for certain areas.

NOTE: Fellow Houstonians, be safe!

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