Hurricane Ike

[Vertigo58]

I believe in them, definitely, I just can't imagine them reaching where we live.

Scares me to dath, truth be told.

Its the wind that have us on edge. Sure am glad we cut down all of those blasted old trees, however; the whole area has hundreds of dead dried up trees that tilt even in the slightest heavy rains. Just yesterday there was a huge branch laying in the center of the street. No one cares to call 311 to remove and for FREE.

We will be blocked in no matter what. Thanks neighbors.

[20thStDad]

wtf? if people in the heights are concerned about boarding up, so does that mean us in the 'trose should as well? i honestly hadn't even considered it...so much for a hurricane plan! hopefully trash bags, towels, and tape will suffice. still trying to figure out what the hell i'm supposed to do with all of these batteries

edit: figured it out. my circa 1990 gameboy should provide for some entertainment

Probably depends on the configuration of your house relative to open space and nearby trees. The front of my house faces south, which would seem to be the direction this junk will hit us, but I have a solid tree in front that should block a lot of things should they come my way. I am going to get up in it today to trim any dead-looking branches and any that I think could hit the house if bent over by high winds. I'm not boarding up though, just not prepared or willing to do it. I have 6 south-facting windows, the rest pretty well shielded by neighbors or facing north. I am most worried about not having cable for college football watching Saturday. I already have tequila and scotch, and if power goes out for a few days I will be smoking/grilling all the meat and frozen pizzas we have. Should be fun.

[woodheightsguy]

Probably depends on the configuration of your house relative to open space and nearby trees. The front of my house faces south, which would seem to be the direction this junk will hit us, but I have a solid tree in front that should block a lot of things should they come my way. I am going to get up in it today to trim any dead-looking branches and any that I think could hit the house if bent over by high winds. I'm not boarding up though, just not prepared or willing to do it. I have 6 south-facting windows, the rest pretty well shielded by neighbors or facing north. I am most worried about not having cable for college football watching Saturday. I already have tequila and scotch, and if power goes out for a few days I will be smoking/grilling all the meat and frozen pizzas we have. Should be fun.

We are supposed to fly to Santa Fe tomorrow for a wedding. One little problem is we have a 7.5 month old daughter that is staying behind with her grandmother. We're just trying to decide what to do, stay or go. We'll make the decision tomorrow, but if we stay, I'll be following your lead and will be heading to my local meat shop to buy some meat for smoking!

We feel like its a catch 22, if we stay, this thing will hit Mexico and we will have missed out on our trip, if we leave, it hits Houston and blows out all our windows and electricity and we see our daughter and her grandmother on t.v. being lifted to safety by a helicopter!

[rsb320]

I've been through Carla. No surge. I'm sorry, I just don't believe in this storm surge crap. There is no way that a storm on Galveston island is going to put my home under water. Alicia - no surge. Sorry- I don't buy the surge theory. Media just trying to scare the hell out of us. It worked with Rita - but no more.

You apparently missed alot of the Katrina coverage on the Mississippi coast. Giant structures were moved. I remember Camille in '69 when I lived on the MS coast. The surge was estimated to be 30'. The concrete slab highway (US-90) was lifted and completely displaced; and this was behind a seawall. So, I'm going to have to strongly disagree with your view on storm surge danger, I've seen too much.

[Vertigo58]

I will be smoking/grilling all the meat and frozen pizzas we have. Should be fun.

Ok we are coming over! lol

We are open to a large field of wooded acreage of the convent across the way. Most of those old dead trees are far in or at least we hope that they dont become projectiles towards us. I will have to board since we are so exposed to the East. We are also in the flood zone. Got smacked at least 2 inches on 1st floor by Allison in 2000.

By looking at this area you would never imagine that could happen but it did. Our front yard became an ocean and when all the panicked cars/Winnebagos went fleeing down our streets they created big waves that came directly towards our houses. from the 2nd floor it really looked like the beach. Oy vey. The folks on the other side in Idylewood need to really get ready they are inches from the bayou. A friends home got it neck deep there. Finally got fed up and moved.

[tmariar]

If things are looking just as iffy (or worse) later today or tomorrow, and people start evacuating, we may want to start neighborhood-specific threads to coordinate between those of us staying and those of us evacuating. Or maybe just a separate thread for those in whatever neighborhood looking to connect with people in particular areas for whatever storm preparedness purposes - post/email/text reports on the storm, keep an eye on my house, keep an eye on my relative, give me somewhere to stop off along my evacuation route in case of an emergency, etc.

During Rita, I kept an eye on some neighbors' houses and would be glad to do so again. Just among the Heights people who post here, we probably have the neighborhood covered for anyone who needs or wants to leave. I think I'm a couple of blocks to the south and west of RedScare, but same general area.

Of course, I'd suggest that people avoid posting their precise addresses whether they're staying or going - leave address exchanges to PM's and use good judgment in choosing to whom to give your address.

[editor]

If things are looking just as iffy (or worse) later today or tomorrow, and people start evacuating, we may want to start neighborhood-specific threads to coordinate between those of us staying and those of us evacuating. Or maybe just a separate thread for those in whatever neighborhood looking to connect with people in particular areas for whatever storm preparedness purposes - post/email/text reports on the storm, keep an eye on my house, keep an eye on my relative, give

Excellent idea.

[wxman]

Speaking w/ some of the Tropical experts I work with... they are seeming to think Brownsville to Victoria... Ike could get pick up right before making landfall... squalls with gusty winds still expected across Houston Friday into Saturday.

That's funny because the folks I've been on the phone with are very concerned of this pulling a Rita. The hurricane is on a 300 degree heading right now and is crawling. This gives the trough time to sweep down to pick up the storm. I tend to believe the UKMET and EURO. Both have been very consistant with the upper Texas coast. I think it is a disasterous situation for Houston. No evacuations for anybody except the west end. Unbelievable.

[tmariar]

Excellent idea.

I'll go ahead and post a thread for location coordination in the next hour or so. If it doesn't get used, it doesn't get used - but I'm guessing there will be at least some use. I'll post that people should continue to go to this thread for status updates - unless someone wants to separate out this thread into a discussion thread and an updates thread. (Not suggesting it, just saying that I'll check the status of the threads before posting the location coordination thread.)

[Zippy]

A kind of interesting analysis on 3-day models and where the storms actually hit has been posted by the Eric guy on the chron site:

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/200...uch_should.html

Katrina was projected to hit W.Florida.. instead went 190 miles out of it's way..

I'll make sure the cat has enough food before I leave.. Glad this thing is coming in late.. I'd have to reschedule my vacation!

[OkieEric]

That's funny because the folks I've been on the phone with are very concerned of this pulling a Rita. The hurricane is on a 300 degree heading right now and is crawling. This gives the trough time to sweep down to pick up the storm. I tend to believe the UKMET and EURO. Both have been very consistant with the upper Texas coast. I think it is a disasterous situation for Houston. No evacuations for anybody except the west end. Unbelievable.

Is it me, or is Ike moving north of the forecast track?

[westguy]

NHC's forecast for landfall has Ike slightly below category 4 intensity. Intensity is hard to predict, but it gets even worse, and if it hits just a few miles down the coast, the surge could reach well into the loop. Bathymetry is of less concern here, but other factors including high tide and ocean depth could work against us. Port Lavaca has deeper water (I think), so Carla's surge wasn't as bad as it could have been. You don't want to be around if the Galveston Causeway washes into your backyard. Ike is an enormous hurricane and it is still growing, so the whole Texas coast is going to feel its effects. The center of NHC's cone only has to be off by about 50-60 miles for some of the worst effects, and right now there's a 200 mile margin of error.

[rsb320]

He's back up to Cat. 2 - 100 mph winds. Also, it's moving Northwest, but it is expected to go back to west north west later today.

[tmariar]

He's back up to Cat. 2 - 100 mph winds. Also, it's moving Northwest, but it is expected to go back to west north west later today.

Don't know if anyone's mentioned it yet, but the pressure readings they were getting even at the 10am (Cat 1) update (957MB, if I recall - now 958, I think) were consistent with a Cat 3. Which is not to say it was/is a Cat 3, just something I take is a little unusual. I'm guessing that suggests the potential for rapid intensification (which is not news), but others likely know better than I do.

BTW - The location/people coordination thread is up now - here - if anyone needs or is offering help preparing for the storm.

[westguy]

Some models are swinging back to the north. Here's a picture of the monster:

[Rammer]

Anyone who evacuates north of I-10(in Houston city limits), and who doesn't live in a flood plain - should be fined by the city, branded a coward, and forced to take a meteorology class.

[Jax]

The latest GFDL model just shifted a few minutes ago to show a hit on Galveston. I believe this is the one that the national hurricane center puts more weight on. This should at least shift the NHC's official forecasted track further north past matagorda if not all the way in to Galveston (since all of the other models still show a more southern path).

[rsb320]

Anyone who evacuates north of I-10(in Houston city limits), and who doesn't live in a flood plain - should be fined by the city, branded a coward, and forced to take a meteorology class.

....or put on a short bus out of town!

[editor]

TJI:

HARRIS COUNTY NOT CALLING FOR HURRICANE EVACUATIONS AT THIS TIME

(Harris County, TX) - Harris County is not calling for evacuations at this time.

This morning, Brazoria County issued a mandatory evacuation order for special needs

residents and those residing in zip code 77541, which includes Freeport, Hideaway

Gulf, Turtle Cove, Surfside, Quintana, Treasure Island, Oyster Creek, Jones Creek and

River's End. A voluntary evacuation was called for all other zip codes in this area.

Also, a voluntary evacuation was issued to residents living on Galveston's west end.

The Harris County Emergency Operations Center (EOC) is now working on a 24-hour

schedule monitoring Ike and is prepared to help neighboring counties affected by this

hurricane.

If Hurricane Ike becomes a major threat to Harris County, officials will inform our

residents and a decision for immediate evacuations would be ordered.

Although, Harris County has not ordered evacuations, officials encourage residents to

prepare, and make the necessary decisions to protect their family, pets and property.

Everyone should have an emergency supply kit, a family emergency plan and continue

to monitor the weather conditions through the local media.

For your consideration:

HURRICANE IKE LOCAL STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

1238 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2008

...EVACUATIONS INITIATED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS

COASTAL COUNTIES...

.AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST OR ABOUT

225 MILES... 365 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND

ABOUT 430 MILES... 690 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE

MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF IKE MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...

THE HURRICANE IS GENERALLY MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR

8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO

CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WOULD TAKE IKE

THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH

HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-

SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND IKE COULD

BE A MAJOR HURRICANE TOMORROW. IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL

CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...

130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND

OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED FROM A NOAA

HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE COASTS OF CUBA AND IN THE

FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD SUBSIDE TODAY. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES OF 2 TO

4 FEET ARE ALREADY OCCURRING ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTH COAST OF THE

GULF OF MEXICO.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO

12 INCHES OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP

TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-

THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR SO ARE POSSIBLE OVER

THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

[HtownWxBoy]

Ike is going a bit slower than expected and has been jogging a bit to the north... this could mean a landfall closer to Houston / Galveston... models now beginning to hint at a middle to upper Texas coast landfall (Matagorda Bay to Galveston).

[20thStDad]

Anyone who evacuates north of I-10(in Houston city limits), and who doesn't live in a flood plain - should be fined by the city, branded a coward, and forced to take a meteorology class.

Yes, because flooding is the only threat a hurricane poses...

Baton Rouge is further inland than Houston is, and with Gustav I know of many cases of trees falling onto houses. Luckily no one I know was hurt, but there's a good chance that someone gets killed if a tree falls into their home. By your statement, if this happens does the city have to pay them since the manned up and stayed??

[sunsets]

That's a good point, but realistically we can't ALL get out. There's not the infrastructure for that. Best we can do is keep the trees trimmed and the house in good shape.

I was checking out the Chron's SciGuy live chat and people in Conroe were asking if they should evacuate, for pete's sake! Where does everyone in Florida go when a hurricane comes in? It's not like the whole state leaves. You get away from the water and ride it out.

[sevfiv]

I think the point is that there are plenty of folks in evacuation zones that could do without a bunch of extra "northern" folks on the road.

[20thStDad]

I get the point they were trying to make, but I'm not about to fault someone or call them a coward for trying to keep their family safe if that's what they feel they have to do. I'm not going anywhere.

[OkieEric]

That's a good point, but realistically we can't ALL get out. There's not the infrastructure for that. Best we can do is keep the trees trimmed and the house in good shape.

I was checking out the Chron's SciGuy live chat and people in Conroe were asking if they should evacuate, for pete's sake! Where does everyone in Florida go when a hurricane comes in? It's not like the whole state leaves. You get away from the water and ride it out.

I saw the same conversation...and people asked about boarding up that far north as well, which has me a little concerned. Not to sound naive, but would actual wind speeds in the city of Houston be somewhat lower due to buffering by other structures, etc?

Anyone else getting an uneasy feeling about this one? Looks like they're going to have to shift the forecast north on the next update

[tmariar]

I get the point they were trying to make, but I'm not about to fault someone or call them a coward for trying to keep their family safe if that's what they feel they have to do. I'm not going anywhere.

The original post was inflammatory - so I understand your response, though I'm very much an advocate of a staged evacuation. I can imagine special cases where people would need/want to evacuate outside the evacuation zones. My request to those people is to leave BEFORE the evacuation zones are asked to evacuate.

[Highway6]

I saw the same conversation...and people asked about boarding up that far north as well, which has me a little concerned. Not to sound naive, but would actual wind speeds in the city of Houston be somewhat lower due to buffering by other structures, etc?

Anyone else getting an uneasy feeling about this one? Looks like they're going to have to shift the forecast north on the next update

I too asked near the end of the chat if I should board up my windows and evacuate.

I mentioned I lived in Canada.

He didn't get to my question.... go figure.

[PapillionWyngs]

You apparently missed alot of the Katrina coverage on the Mississippi coast. Giant structures were moved. I remember Camille in '69 when I lived on the MS coast. The surge was estimated to be 30'. The concrete slab highway (US-90) was lifted and completely displaced; and this was behind a seawall. So, I'm going to have to strongly disagree with your view on storm surge danger, I've seen too much.

I understand the highway being lifted right behind a seawall - but we aren't on Galveston Island. We are miles away in the Clear Lake area. And my mother is right by the Gulf Freeway - told to evacuate for Rita. I just can't see it. And I've been through three hurricanes so far if you count Rita, which I kinda do.

[rsb320]

Yes, because flooding is the only threat a hurricane poses...

Baton Rouge is further inland than Houston is, and with Gustav I know of many cases of trees falling onto houses. Luckily no one I know was hurt, but there's a good chance that someone gets killed if a tree falls into their home. By your statement, if this happens does the city have to pay them since the manned up and stayed??

Sorry, Dad, but I agree with Rammer. Keep your wimpyaz home until those that must evac can. A tree can fall on your house pretty much any month throughout the year as the result of a turnader.

I've been through so many storms that I just go into H-mode and do my preps and hunker down (and drink, and drink, etc.)

[PapillionWyngs]

NHC's forecast for landfall has Ike slightly below category 4 intensity. Intensity is hard to predict, but it gets even worse, and if it hits just a few miles down the coast, the surge could reach well into the loop. Bathymetry is of less concern here, but other factors including high tide and ocean depth could work against us. Port Lavaca has deeper water (I think), so Carla's surge wasn't as bad as it could have been. You don't want to be around if the Galveston Causeway washes into your backyard. Ike is an enormous hurricane and it is still growing, so the whole Texas coast is going to feel its effects. The center of NHC's cone only has to be off by about 50-60 miles for some of the worst effects, and right now there's a 200 mile margin of error.

So what would you do if you lived in the Clear Lake area?