Hurricane Ike

[RedScare]

Just a few distances to consider while looking at these maps....

Corpus christi to Freeport - 145 miles

Port O'Connor to Freeport - 69 miles

Matagorda to Freeport - 29 miles

Freeport is considered a worst case scenario for Houston, as it is due south of downtown. It might also be considered worst case for the petrochemical industry in Freeport and Pasadena/Baytown. However, as the geographical center of Houston's population is more like Beltway 8 and I-10, landfall around Matagorda might be worse for more people. All of the NHC's favorite computer models currently show landfall within about 50 miles of Matagorda.

Keep an 'eye' out.

[TheNiche]

Ike has become a giant storm. It will stretch from the Bay of Campeche to Louisiana once it's fully in the Gulf. Its size adds a lot to the surge potential. You are in Zone A, and if it hits just 20-30 miles south of us at Carla's intensity, your home will be under water. I'm not kidding.

PapillionWings is not necessarily in Zone A. NASA, Taylor Lake Village, El Lago, and much of Seabrook are in Zone A. Clear Lake City is not.

Moreover, Clear Lake is a big place. If you're up along or north of Bay Area Blvd., you're in good shape as far as storm surge goes. Wind is a big question mark, though. If it is a major storm, she'll need to get the hell out of dodge for that reason...but not because of water.

[westguy]

I won't say that a Category 4 hurricane is necessary to flood Houston. Katrina's winds were much lower, but it produced a record storm surge that was thought possible only in hurricanes several categories higher.

[TheNiche]

Just a few distances to consider while looking at these maps....

Corpus christi to Freeport - 145 miles

Port O'Connor to Freeport - 69 miles

Matagorda to Freeport - 29 miles

Freeport is considered a worst case scenario for Houston, as it is due south of downtown. It might also be considered worst case for the petrochemical industry in Freeport and Pasadena/Baytown. However, as the geographical center of Houston's population is more like Beltway 8 and I-10, landfall around Matagorda might be worse for more people. All of the NHC's favorite computer models currently show landfall within about 50 miles of Matagorda.

Keep an 'eye' out.

Seems like it would be dependent upon the direction of movement. Freeport is really really bad for us if it is moving in a more northerly direction. But if it is headed due west, it'll still be painful but not as bad as it could've been. Intuitively, I would think that a due west storm is probably worst-case for us if it strikes just above San Luis Pass.

I won't say that a Category 4 hurricane is necessary to flood Houston. Katrina's winds were much lower, but it produced a record storm surge that was thought possible only in hurricanes several categories higher.

The bathymetry of the area that Katrina struck was crucial to the 30-foot storm surge. That will never happen in Galveston Bay. Either there isn't enough water or there are too many obstructions, or the angles just don't work out.

I researched this a good bit when I put an offer on a home that was only one row of houses off the bay...and then a little bit more as I started researching sailboats for live-aboard potential.

[RedScare]

Seems like it would be dependent upon the direction of movement. Freeport is really really bad for us if it is moving in a more northerly direction. But if it is headed due west, it'll still be painful but not as bad as it could've been. Intuitively, I would think that a due west storm is probably worst-case for us if it strikes just above San Luis Pass.

Agreed...for a storm moving west. This one isn't doing that (well, so far as we know).

Perry is getting ready to call for evacuations.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/metrop...an/5992505.html

Interesting that they are talking as if Corpus is the most likely spot. Given that the most accurate models are all pointing north or east of Corpus, combined with the northest side of the storm packing the highest winds, I would expect a little more wariness for the coastal areas south of Houston. There seems to be an aversion to suggesting the obvious for fear of incurring the wrath of the media bashers. It is palpable.

[20thStDad]

Red you wouldn't evacuate from the Heights, would you? Just want to be sure I'm not crazy. I just have no inkling to pack up and get a baby into the evacuation mess. I'd rather hang out with no power for a while, not working or driving or sitting in traffic.

[westguy]

Ike has a rainband in Honduras and one in the Florida Panhandle at the same time. It also has a tiny little eye, so unfortunately Cuba didn't take too much out of it. It just made it much bigger.

The Heights isn't in the evacuation zone, so you're in as much risk as everyone else on land. I wouldn't say everyone is safe because the last giant to come to Texas - Carla - spawned an outbreak of tornadoes up the coast.

[sifuwong]

I think with what happened during Rita's evacuation, i don't think there will be nearly as much people evacuating even if Ike took the path that Rita did. From alot of people i know, they are staying put.

[RedScare]

Red you wouldn't evacuate from the Heights, would you? Just want to be sure I'm not crazy. I just have no inkling to pack up and get a baby into the evacuation mess. I'd rather hang out with no power for a while, not working or driving or sitting in traffic.

Arrgh! I laugh in the face of danger!

Kidding aside, no, I wouldn't evacuate. It may get a bit scary, but Mother Nature hasn't knocked this house down in 90 years, so I'll tough it out. The shiplap walls actually make the house very sturdy. The roof, not so much, but there is even shiplap on the ceiling, so the basic box of the house is built well, even if I lost a roof. Additionally, I have several neighbors living in new construction, which under Houston code is built to withstand 120 mph. There is no need for me or you to leave our block.

To be safe, locate an interior area, like a hallway, that has interior walls, just in case. If things get hairy, relocate there until the winds die down.

[Jax]

Speaking of storm surges, I like this legend about Jean Lafitte..

The mystery surrounding Lafitte has only inflated the legends attached to his name. Lafitte was said to be a master mariner; according to one legend he was once caught in a tropical storm off the coast of North Galveston and steered his ship to safety by riding the storm surge over Galveston island and into the harbor

[editor]

I'm getting tired of repeatedly cleaning up this thread. If certain repeat offenders can't stay on topic they will have their posting privileges suspended.

Please try to act like adults.

[sunsets]

Another question for RedScare:

Are you going to board up? I'm planning on staying in the Heights, too, and I'm confident the house will make it. I was just wondering about the windows - what wind speed is the cutoff for you for plywood/no plywood? Mine's all pre-cut, I just have to nail it up there. (simple right?, with NO ONE ELSE around - why do these things always blow up when my husband is traveling????)

I might board up and retreat to a friends' place out in the Energy Corridor, not so much because I'm afraid of the house, but I'd rather not ride it out alone.

I noticed Kroger has lots and lots of bottled water stocked and ready to go.

[PapillionWyngs]

Ike has become a giant storm. It will stretch from the Bay of Campeche to Louisiana once it's fully in the Gulf. Its size adds a lot to the surge potential. You are in Zone A, and if it hits just 20-30 miles south of us at Carla's intensity, your home will be under water. I'm not kidding.

I've been through Carla. No surge. I'm sorry, I just don't believe in this storm surge crap. There is no way that a storm on Galveston island is going to put my home under water. Alicia - no surge. Sorry- I don't buy the surge theory. Media just trying to scare the hell out of us. It worked with Rita - but no more.

[editor]

I've been through Carla. No surge. I'm sorry, I just don't believe in this storm surge crap. There is no way that a storm on Galveston island is going to put my home under water. Alicia - no surge. Sorry- I don't buy the surge theory. Media just trying to scare the hell out of us. It worked with Rita - but no more.

Just to be clear -- you don't believe in storm surges at all, or you don't believe they'll reach where you live?

[PapillionWyngs]

Just to be clear -- you don't believe in storm surges at all, or you don't believe they'll reach where you live?

I believe in them, definitely, I just can't imagine them reaching where we live.

Scares me to dath, truth be told.

[memebag]

The shiplap walls actually make the house very sturdy. The roof, not so much, but there is even shiplap on the ceiling...

If it gets bad, just flip your house over and you'll have a ship.

[westguy]

If it gets bad, just flip your house over and you'll have a ship.

I think we can just borrow some from him and build an ark.

[crunchtastic]

Charcoal and baby wipes. Good additions to the emergency chest. And those pre-moistened alcohol antispetic pads. Nice to have when the fire ants show up.

And more liquor. When the beer won't stay cold and you're taking two days to chainsaw the trees that fell over your or your neighbor's property, rum or bourbon and warm coke will work just fine.

Although, I think I'll just go to Red's. I suspect he may still have last year's storm supply of booze and cigarettes. It's all about rotating the stock.

[RedScare]

Another question for RedScare:

Are you going to board up? I'm planning on staying in the Heights, too, and I'm confident the house will make it. I was just wondering about the windows - what wind speed is the cutoff for you for plywood/no plywood? Mine's all pre-cut, I just have to nail it up there. (simple right?, with NO ONE ELSE around - why do these things always blow up when my husband is traveling????)

I might board up and retreat to a friends' place out in the Energy Corridor, not so much because I'm afraid of the house, but I'd rather not ride it out alone.

I noticed Kroger has lots and lots of bottled water stocked and ready to go.

I won't be boarding up, but not for any reasons related to the storm. I....umm.....never bought any plywood.

Actually, I am not a fan of putting up plywood on my house, for the simple fact that I have 19 windows on my 2 bedroom bungalow. Instead, I plan to build storm shutters that I can simply close and latch when the need arises. Unfortunately, since last spring, when I first came up with this plan, I have done absolutely nothing to further this plan. So, rather than buy plywood that I'll only use once, I'll take my chances.

Depending on how close the storm gets, if you have the wood already cut, you should put it up. Since I am not putting any on my house, I may be available to help out. PM me if you choose to do it.

[westguy]

Ike's track is shifting north again and he's strengthened a bit. Since the storm is huge, we're going to feel it. It's too early to say how much.

[RedScare]

Charcoal and baby wipes. Good additions to the emergency chest. And those pre-moistened alcohol antispetic pads. Nice to have when the fire ants show up.

And more liquor. When the beer won't stay cold and you're taking two days to chainsaw the trees that fell over your or your neighbor's property, rum or bourbon and warm coke will work just fine.

Although, I think I'll just go to Red's. I suspect he may still have last year's storm supply of booze and cigarettes. It's all about rotating the stock.

Absolutely, but in all honesty, even stale smokes and flat cokes taste good in a storm. Even that 2005 Wolf brand chili is probably still good.

[crunchtastic]

Depending on how close the storm gets, if you have the wood already cut, you should put it up. Since I am not putting any on my house, I may be available to help out. PM me if you choose to do it.

Nice to know I'm not the only one who slacked on window prep.

I like this map (attachment). From: http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/home1.html

[crunchtastic]

Even that 2005 Wolf brand chili is probably still good.

It makes a good meal in any year ending in an 0-something!

You and Niche have more in common than you realize.

Windows, ugh. You've just depressed me about the eventual cost of boarding up. 26 windows in just under 1,500 square feet. (that's counting the 4-part front door window and transom as one piece). No hallways. All open to the center. Luckily I do have a spacious and accessible attic.

[RedScare]

Basically, the current projection is 75 miles from a Freeport landfall. Earlier, The Weather Channel said that hurricane force winds are 70 miles across, and tropical storm force winds are 175 miles across. So, we are easily in tropical storm range, and west Houston could well be in hurricane range.

For those who want to estimate how far this puts Ike from your house, here's a nifty little GPS calculator.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gccalc.shtml

Enter latitude 28.448 N and longitude 96.406 W for Port O'Connor landfall. Use this site to get the location of your house.

http://stevemorse.org/jcal/latlon.php

It is actually pretty cool. My house is 96 miles from Port O'Connor. Yikes!

Luckily I do have a spacious and accessible attic.

This ain't New Awlins, sweetheart.

[OkieEric]

Depending on how close the storm gets, if you have the wood already cut, you should put it up. Since I am not putting any on my house, I may be available to help out. PM me if you choose to do it.

Nice to know I'm not the only one who slacked on window prep.

I like this map (attachment). From: http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/home1.html

wtf? if people in the heights are concerned about boarding up, so does that mean us in the 'trose should as well? i honestly hadn't even considered it...so much for a hurricane plan! hopefully trash bags, towels, and tape will suffice. still trying to figure out what the hell i'm supposed to do with all of these batteries

edit: figured it out. my circa 1990 gameboy should provide for some entertainment

[JLWM8609]

107 miles from Port O'Connor to my fair abode.

[crunchtastic]

wtf? if people in the heights are concerned about boarding up, so does that mean us in the 'trose should as well? i honestly hadn't even considered it...so much for a hurricane plan! hopefully trash bags, towels, and tape will suffice. still trying to figure out what the hell i'm supposed to do with all of these batteries

edit: figured it out. my circa 1990 gameboy should provide for some entertainment

Seriously, for storm preparedness, other than water, basic first aid needs, pet needs, food, etc, I always stock extra paper towels and toilet paper, extra charcoal, wipes, mosquito repellent (deet works, nothing else does), duct tape, garbage bags.

At the risk of sounding 10,000 years old, I still have a land line. You would be surprised at how nice it is to talk on the phone for those 2 weeks when you've got no power and sketchy cell service.

[RedScare]

BRAZORIA COUNTY MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR ZIP CODE 77541

Voluntary evacuation begins at 6:00 am.

Mandatory Evacuation begins at 10:00 am.

Zip Code 77541 is generally the Freeport, Surfside and Quintana areas.

The official forecast calls for landfall at Port Lavaca, 80 miles south of Freeport. Hurricane force winds are expected 70 miles from the eye and tropical storm winds up to 200 miles out.

Computer model trivia: The BEST computer model has an average margin of error 3 days out of 100 miles. Others are 150 to 200 miles, making a Freeport to Galveston landfall easily in the margin of error.

[editor]

BRAZORIA COUNTY MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR ZIP CODE 77541

Voluntary evacuation begins at 6:00 am.

Mandatory Evacuation begins at 10:00 am.

Zip Code 77541 is generally the Freeport, Surfside and Quintana areas.

Brazoria County's web site has a scrolling marquee at the top reading

"Brazoria County is Not Ordering a Mandatory Evacuation. Brazoria County Citizens Should Stay Informed Regarding Hurricane Ike. Click Here for Details."

But when you click for more details, it just takes you to the regular Brazoria County Emergency Management web page which has no further details.

But the local paper (the Facts) has an article which includes a quote from Steve Rosa, assistant emergency management director:

"Mandatory evacuation for the coastal zip zone 77541 and special needs evacuation will begin at 10 a.m. on Wednesday, Sept. 10. Residents in the coastal areas and those requiring transportation from Brazoria County to Bell County must rush their preparations to completion and be prepared to leave by 10 a.m."

Maybe Brazoria's web site will catch up when people start coming to work in the morning.

[RedScare]

That's amusing. I've been watching Channel 13 repeat this info since 5:00 am, including a reporter in Surfside reporting what officials have told him and why.

Maybe this is some sort of epic power struggle within the Brazoria County OEM.