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Hurricane Ike


Trae

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So what does that mean to those of us living in the evacuation zip codes?

It means that you might have to evacuate. Don't plan to leave when everybody is leaving because the roads will be jammed. Get some supplies. Don't go moving the whole Walmart into your pantry. I only make sure we have enough for 3/4 days, in hurricane mode that will go for 6/7 days. I always plan to leave 12 hrs or less to when a storm is making a landfall. That way you're pretty sure it is coming your way and the roads will be free. We're probably the only couple in the subdivision that didn't leave for Rita.

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Crunch time for what? We evacuated for Rita, and for what? I just don't trust the media any more.

I was here for Carla,Alicia and we left for Rita, and we should have stayed put.

This time, staying put!

It jogged at the last minute. This year, the forecasts have been better. CoolBuddy06 said it best.

Edited by Trae
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Can't blame the media for the panic of Rita. There was a huge knee jerk reaction in the wake of Katrina. Everyone saw firsthand what happens when you wait to late to leave. Harris County's evac plan was totally out of date, and the local OEM was not prepared whatsoever. Without the Media you have zero warning, until it's too late. NOLA got caught with their pants down with Katrina, and in a sense Harris County did with Rita. It exposed just how inadequate the OEM was in case of a real emergency, and how misinformed people were to the evac plans in place, and how out of date they were. If Rita would have hit Houston and come up the ship channel the way it did the Sabine river, it would have been a tragedy unseen in years. The media serves it's purpose. You just have to be able to judge for yourselves how to react to what they give you.

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This storm got me worried over the weekend. Got all my supplies already. Looks like it is coming towards Houston/Galveston at this point. The cone of uncertainty is pretty wide right now. Hopefully, by Wednesday, we will get a much clearer picture of where it is heading.

Edited by sifuwong
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Crunch time, as in, the closer a hurricane is to landfall, the better the track is.

I thought he meant crunch time as in 1. a critical moment or period (as near the end of a game) when decisive action is needed (Merriam-Webster), 2. When people, companies, etc, have to make an important decision that will have a considerable effect on their future... (UsingEnglish.com), 3. A critical period of time during which it is necessary to work hard and fast (Wiktionary), 4. The interval of time immediately before a project is due, when it becomes apparent that the schedule has slipped and everyone is going to have to work like dogs to try to complete the project in time. Crunch time usually occurs during the period between the next-to-last scheduled milestone (prior to which everyone was able to delude themselves tht the schedule had NOT slipped) and the final deadline for delivery (Urban Dictionary), 5. a deadline/the last minute (Urban Dictionary), 6. What you say to a women before laying down a serious smashing (Urban Dictionary), or 7. An effort by an Austrailian non-profit to get citizens to mail them samples of their poo. (It's Crunch Time).

None of the above apply any more today than they did yesterday.

Anyway, this is my last response to you. Your ass goes on ignore. Everything I say, you have some crap to say back. It's stupid.

Ignoring someone on HAIF is a lot like being an ostrich. Placing one's head in the sand doesn't mean predators won't attack them and eat them for lunch.

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I thought he meant crunch time as in 1. a critical moment or period (as near the end of a game) when decisive action is needed (Merriam-Webster), 2. When people, companies, etc, have to make an important decision that will have a considerable effect on their future... (UsingEnglish.com), 3. A critical period of time during which it is necessary to work hard and fast (Wiktionary), 4. The interval of time immediately before a project is due, when it becomes apparent that the schedule has slipped and everyone is going to have to work like dogs to try to complete the project in time. Crunch time usually occurs during the period between the next-to-last scheduled milestone (prior to which everyone was able to delude themselves tht the schedule had NOT slipped) and the final deadline for delivery (Urban Dictionary), 5. a deadline/the last minute (Urban Dictionary), 6. What you say to a women before laying down a serious smashing (Urban Dictionary), or 7. An effort by an Austrailian non-profit to get citizens to mail them samples of their poo. (It's Crunch Time).

Maybe for the next definition, you could do "insufferable". <_<

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Can't blame the media for the panic of Rita. There was a huge knee jerk reaction in the wake of Katrina. Everyone saw firsthand what happens when you wait to late to leave. Harris County's evac plan was totally out of date, and the local OEM was not prepared whatsoever. Without the Media you have zero warning, until it's too late. NOLA got caught with their pants down with Katrina, and in a sense Harris County did with Rita. It exposed just how inadequate the OEM was in case of a real emergency, and how misinformed people were to the evac plans in place, and how out of date they were. If Rita would have hit Houston and come up the ship channel the way it did the Sabine river, it would have been a tragedy unseen in years. The media serves it's purpose. You just have to be able to judge for yourselves how to react to what they give you.

Well said. I don't judge the media or the city with Rita. All the wrong factors were at play then. the media is doing a great job pre hurricane, most people just don't know/remember that it is a forecast. It updates about every 8 hours and may have changed by then.

What I don't like about the media is how they hype wimpy storms after they pass standing in muddy waters and all, showing 'HOME FOR SALE' sign knoked down by Edouard. But that's a topic for another day.

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You people do realize that you are arguing over the predictions of weathermen that can barely tell us if it will rain or not on any given day in Houston? Besides, Ike is gonna hit Brownsville or Mexico, is that west enough for ya ? Computer models are even MORE incompetent, that is why they give 10 possibilities. You got a better chance at winning a lottery scratch off.

Edited by TJones
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You people do realize that you are arguing over the predictions of weathermen that can barely tell us if it will rain or not on any given day in Houston? Besides, Ike is gonna hit Brownsville or Mexico, is that west enough for ya ? Computer models are even MORE incompetent, that is why they give 10 possibilities. You got a better chance at winning a lottery scratch off.

Those are not 10 possibilities. They are the results of 6 different computer programs, each of which places varying degrees of emphasis on weather conditions and patterns. The hurricane forecast is the result of the human discussion of those computer results. So, neither is necessarily worse than the other, as the forecast is a combination of all of them.

The forecasters routinely warn that 4 and 5 day forecasts can be extremely unreliable, with the storm track varying up to 300 miles to either side of the center line. In fact, if anyone e-mouthing on this thread had bothered to read the forecaster's discussion (copied below), they would have seen his strong warning that the 4-5 day forecast may change dramatically. Therefore, TJ may be correct that the storm hits Brownsville. Of course, TJ may also be wrong because it may hit Beaumont. Once we are in the 3 day cone, we'll be a little more certain who's going to get screwed.

AS ALWAYS...IT CANNOT BE

OVEREMPHASIZED THAT ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST

POINTS SINCE THESE CAN BE SUBJECT TO SUBSTANTIAL ERRORS.

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What makes you think that? :unsure:

Mine was blank until just a minute ago. Now, it is showing up, rendering my joke rather awkward.

I was listening to a forecaster on the way home. In spite of the computer runs going through Brownsville, he said most of the forecasters still believe that the storm will make landfall somewhere between Corpus and SW LA. Apparently, even though most of the computers are not picking it up, they believe that the trough will cause a northern turn, similar to HWRF or UKMET.

That UKMET path would be rather disastrous for Houston.

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Mine was blank until just a minute ago. Now, it is showing up, rendering my joke rather awkward.

I was listening to a forecaster on the way home. In spite of the computer runs going through Brownsville, he said most of the forecasters still believe that the storm will make landfall somewhere between Corpus and SW LA. Apparently, even though most of the computers are not picking it up, they believe that the trough will cause a northern turn, similar to HWRF or UKMET.

That UKMET path would be rather disastrous for Houston.

Yes it's still up in the air whether or not Ike will get picked up or not... one thing to note is that the models for days have been saying it will get picked up and it hasn't yet... so not sure how much faith I have in the ones that continue to hint at that. I would like to see it get picked up to give us some rain and maybe a little wind... I guess we will see.

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Speaking w/ some of the Tropical experts I work with... they are seeming to think Brownsville to Victoria... Ike could get pick up right before making landfall... squalls with gusty winds still expected across Houston Friday into Saturday.

Not being critical.. just curious... ever since you mentioned the wx in your name.

What's your weather background.. and is your present or former occupation somehow weather-related.

Are you really Dr Neil Frank ?

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Yeah, but like you said, LA two days ago. It is getting closer to this storm's landfall, so it's crunch time now.

Right, but even the models I was talking about yesterday, tomorrow they will be from 2 days ago too. And will probably point somewhere else. My only point is that based on the previous models, you and others have stated that New Orleans/LA is toast, we are toast, and now we are not toast.

It changes, and we all love to watch it change. I think it's fun. Weather prediction technology will never be able to tell us 7 days out where a storm will make landfall. You just can't model something that is effectively turbulence that accurately. Just be prepared, keep your eye on the progress of its movements, and when it is T minus 2-3 days until landfall be ready to make a decision, depending on how fast it is moving.

Edited by 20thStDad
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Not being critical.. just curious... ever since you mentioned the wx in your name.

What's your weather background.. and is your present or former occupation somehow weather-related.

Are you really Dr Neil Frank ?

I'm a Meteorologist... currently work in the private sector here in Houston.... and no, I'm not Neil Frank. ha ha :P

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I'm a Meteorologist... currently work in the private sector here in Houston.... and no, I'm not Neil Frank. ha ha :P

Now that someone said it...I long have concluded that you're Frank Billingsley and honestly it has nothing to do with gay. I just link your posts to him. Neil Frank's too old for HAIF. He can't stand the fireworks around here.

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After shifting the forecast track further and further to the south, the National Hurricane Center at 11:00 am has now shifted the forecast track a bit back northward bringing landfall near Corpus Christi... will this trend continue? :unsure:

Now that someone said it...I long have concluded that you're Frank Billingsley and honestly it has nothing to do with gay. I just link your posts to him. Neil Frank's too old for HAIF. He can't stand the fireworks around here.

Ha ha ha... actually Meteorology is a very "gay" profession... don't ask me why... just a lot of gay Meteorologists out there... I work w/ a few others. ^_^

Edited by HtownWxBoy
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Now that someone said it...I long have concluded that you're Frank Billingsley and honestly it has nothing to do with gay. I just link your posts to him. Neil Frank's too old for HAIF. He can't stand the fireworks around here.

Just last night I told the future Mrs. Bag that HtownWxBoy was Frank Billingsley, and it had everything to do with gay.

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Speaking of gay weathermen, Jim Cantore looked so lonely down in Houma during Gustav, while the other guy was hanging out in the big convetion hotel in NOLA.

I used to have such a crush on Jim Cantore when I was younger... now I can't stand him... seems like such an egotistical jerk... but I digress. Cantore ALWAYS goes where the most action will be... they don't call him "Storm Chaser Jim Cantore" for nothing. :rolleyes:

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Good old Houston, always the bridesmaid, never the bride..... Guess i better water the yard this evening????

If Ike goes in south of us around Corpus or Victoria and then lifts northward towards Austin we could see a good bit of rain here in Houston since we will be on the "dirty" side of the storm with onshore flow.

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Ok, first of all, I have NEVER seen the models shift 500 miles like I saw them shift yesterday. That should be your first clue that the models have no idea what's going on. In my opinion, this is not a south Texas hurricane. I believe the models have under played the approaching trough in the pacific northwest. The UKMET and HWRF show a middle to upper Texas coast strike. I have caught a glance at the newest models (the 12z runs) and the models have once again shifted...this time back north. The models are having a very hard time with timing on the trough and the building ridge. For instance you have the gfdl model (which the hurricane center lives and dies by) that shows south texas. It's twin brother, the HWRF, shows upper texas coast. (throws hands up) It's madness I'm telling you! EVERYBODY needs to prepare for a major hurricane.

Edited by wxman
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as long as doesn't get TO close to the south of us, I'm okay with that. If it's victoria, we're going to have a bad day.

I've heard several weatherguys commenting that two of the computer models that they have been using have been the most accurate, one of which showed one of the projected routes heading south of galveston. Kinda' made me rethink my shopping tomorrow.

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The fact that it could turn more towards the north ahead of landfall is what makes things so difficult... you can be forecasting it to go into Corpus, and if it begins to turn to the north just a little earlier then landfall could be near Matagorda Bay or even Freeport... that's the difference between 40-50 mph winds and 120 mph winds.

One thing to remember, also... it seems like more often than not these storms end up going inland just east of where they are forecasted to go inland even 12 hours ahead of landfall (e.g. Rita, Edouard)... taking into account that this storm is forecast to possibly turn towards the north ahead of landfall and the shape of Texas' coast... well, Houston needs to watch this storm closely.

Edited by HtownWxBoy
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I do not have a WX in my name, nor do I pretend to. However, I have observed that the HWRF model has been pretty consistent over the past 24 hours while the other models have bounced around significantly.

I do not know much about this model (or any of the models), however a consistent model that isnt an outlier, seems like one I would pay particular attention too.

gallery_1714_36_18603.gif

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gallery_1714_36_20870.gif

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Here is the difference between a barely Cat. 3 Hurricane Alicia vs. a Cat 4/5 Carla.

What is disturbing is the surge produced by Carla affecting the lower lying areas such as Freeport, Alvin, Texas City, League City, Pasadena, La Porte, Webster. Not GOOD!!

Hurricane Alicia, August 18, 1983: Alicia was the first hurricane to strike the Continental USA since Allen in 1980. It was the longest period in this century that the U.S. mainland had gone without a hurricane landfall (though tropical storms did hit within that time). Alicia was a small- to medium-size hurricane. It reached a minimal Category 3 status as it hit land. The center of Alicia moved over the Texas coast about 25 miles southwest of Galveston on August 18. Aircraft observations indicated that only a 60 mile section of the coast, extending northeastward from Freeport, Texas, experienced hurricane force winds. Despite its small size, Alicia caused over $2.4 billion in damage (in 1990 dollars).

Hurricane Carla, September 10/11th. 1961: Carla was the largest and most intense Gulf Coast hurricane in decades. On September 8, Carla's center took aim at the Texas coast. By the 9th, Carla's circulation enveloped the entire Gulf of Mexico with fringe effects along all Gulf Coast states. On the 9th, the largest mass evacuation to that date occurred, as an estimated one-half million residents of low coastal areas and islands off Texas and Louisiana were evacuated to higher ground. As the center approached Texas on the 10th, winds near the center were estimated at 150 mph. Reconnaissance aircraft indicated a central pressure of 931 mb just prior to its striking the coast. Only 46 lost their lives because of early warnings. Severe damage along a wide expanse of the Texas coast was caused by unusually prolonged winds, high tides and flooding from torrential rains. Damage was about $2 billion in 1990 dollars.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/crp/docs/research/...arla/carla.html

Check out the link for a better visiual

http://www.cityofpearland.com/vertical/Sites/{CA80BAF8-A883-4878-AB6D-7FC8DAE7D62E}/uploads/{A83EA47A-FB89-4A1F-879E-27DE98439D74}.PDF

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The fact that it could turn more towards the north ahead of landfall is what makes things so difficult... you can be forecasting it to go into Corpus, and if it begins to turn to the north just a little earlier then landfall could be near Matagorda Bay or even Freeport... that's the difference between 40-50 mph winds and 120 mph winds.

One thing to remember, also... it seems like more often than not these storms end up going inland just east of where they are forecasted to go inland even 12 hours ahead of landfall (e.g. Rita, Edouard)... taking into account that this storm is forecast to possibly turn towards the north ahead of landfall and the shape of Texas' coast... well, Houston needs to watch this storm closely.

I wish everyone would quit trying to scare us,and just listen to what the weather forecasters are saying. It isn't hitting here, it is going South. Period. Now stop it!

I do not have a WX in my name, nor do I pretend to. However, I have observed that the HWRF model has been pretty consistent over the past 24 hours while the other models have bounced around significantly.

I do not know much about this model (or any of the models), however a consistent model that isnt an outlier, seems like one I would pay particular attention too.

gallery_1714_36_18603.gif

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gallery_1714_36_20870.gif

So what does the WX have to do with it? If it means this person is claiming to be a weather expert - we don't know who he is, no credentials to show - why listen to him? Everyone needs to calm down and listen to people who KNOW what they are talking about, not this joker.

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I wish everyone would quit trying to scare us,and just listen to what the weather forecasters are saying. It isn't hitting here, it is going South. Period. Now stop it!

So what does the WX have to do with it? If it means this person is claiming to be a weather expert - we don't know who he is, no credentials to show - why listen to him? Everyone needs to calm down and listen to people who KNOW what they are talking about, not this joker.

Who's trying to scare anyone? Perhaps you should take your own advice and calm down. In fact, if talk of hurricanes bothers you, perhaps not reading this thread at all would help.

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So what does the WX have to do with it? If it means this person is claiming to be a weather expert - we don't know who he is, no credentials to show - why listen to him? Everyone needs to calm down and listen to people who KNOW what they are talking about, not this joker.

Actually, the two people that have wx in their name have both claimed to be meteorologists at one point or another....

And so far they both seem like they know their stuff...

so um yeah.... i'm gonna follow them.. you can stay here with Gustav expert Trae.

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I wish everyone would quit trying to scare us,and just listen to what the weather forecasters are saying. It isn't hitting here, it is going South. Period. Now stop it!

Ike has become a giant storm. It will stretch from the Bay of Campeche to Louisiana once it's fully in the Gulf. Its size adds a lot to the surge potential. You are in Zone A, and if it hits just 20-30 miles south of us at Carla's intensity, your home will be under water. I'm not kidding.

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