Tropical Storm Edouard - 2008

[HtownWxBoy]

A cluster of thunderstorms over the northern Gulf of Mexico has the potential to develop into something Tropical. Right now it's not showing any signs of development but several of the computer models are coming into agreement that something could develop as this activity pushes westward towards Texas over the next 2 days. If it were to develop into a Tropical Storm it would be called Edourd. Even if it were to develop it most likely would not have much time to strengthen, though even a Tropical Storm could cause big problems. Right now the forecast brings the moisture, whether it develops into something or not, into the middle and upper Texas coasts late Monday into Tuesday.

Anywayz... just a heads up for everyone.

[westguy]

This one looks like Alicia in its early stages.

[Gary]

I hope it brings us some rain.

[EastEnd Susan]

This one looks like Alicia in its early stages.

I was thinking the same thing. Is it time to "Hunker Down?" The weather guys should all be getting excited about now because they may get to use their other favorite term.."Cone Of Uncertainty!"

[RedScare]

Right now, they are just saying it should bring some welcomed rain. But, the computer models all have it aiming straight at us.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/track...0891_model.html

Plus, the hottest water in the entire Gulf is off of Galveston. Currently in the 86-88 degree range.

[westguy]

I was thinking the same thing. Is it time to "Hunker Down?" The weather guys should all be getting excited about now because they may get to use their other favorite term.."Cone Of Uncertainty!"

There's not much mention in the media yet. But some models linked to at another blog show a hurricane landing in Galveston on Tuesday.

[houstonmacbro]

I hope it brings us some rain.

I was thinking the same thing. I was out on my morning walk today and it got real cloudy and overcast and windy ... I thought for sure it was going to storm.

Well, lo and behold ... it is just another (very) hot day without a drop of rain in sight.

[RedScare]

Now better than 50% chance that this system develops into a tropical cyclone.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

Hurricane hunters are en route. Should have a better idea this evening.

[sarahiki]

Now better than 50% chance that this system develops into a tropical cyclone.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

Hurricane hunters are en route. Should have a better idea this evening.

I thought a cyclone was a Pacific storm. Of course, I didn't bother to read your link; maybe that would have explained it...

[Gary]

Now better than 50% chance that this system develops into a tropical cyclone.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

Hurricane hunters are en route. Should have a better idea this evening.

Thanks for the link Red. Hopefully the westward movement will turn a little more north overnight to give us some rain Tuesday. Of course if it intensifies, which it probably will over Galveston Bay, I might change my tune.

[cottonmather0]

Looks like the odds of it becoming a particularly dangerous storm are pretty low, so I say bring it on. We desperately need the rain.

[20thStDad]

Rain or even some cloud cover. The high temps the past week read 97-97-96-97-99-97-99. Just a day that tops out at 90 would be awesome. Last July, with rain almost every day, seemed almost pleasant compared to this.

[houstonmacbro]

Rain or even some cloud cover. The high temps the past week read 97-97-96-97-99-97-99. Just a day that tops out at 90 would be awesome. Last July, with rain almost every day, seemed almost pleasant compared to this.

And we're just starting out for August. This promises to be a scorching month.

[musicman]

I was thinking the same thing. I was out on my morning walk today and it got real cloudy and overcast and windy ... I thought for sure it was going to storm.

Well, lo and behold ... it is just another (very) hot day without a drop of rain in sight.

there's a severe thunderstorm watch currently, so rain is in sight

[westguy]

Have to get some fuel today. Tomorrow will be murder day at the pumps.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 265/5. THE DEPRESSION IS

ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN

PLAINS...WITH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECASTING THE RIDGE TO BUILD

EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR. THIS SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE

GENERALLY WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS AND

WESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD

AGREEMENT IN CALLING FOR LANDFALL IN THIS AREA...WITH THE GFS AND

UKMET AIMING AT WESTERN LOUISIANA AND THE REST OF THE DYNAMICAL

GUIDANCE AIMING AT TEXAS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE

MODEL CONSENSUS AND CALL FOR LANDFALL ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST IN

36-48 HR. THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF.

THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ENCOUNTERING NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND

SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...WHICH HAS GIVEN THE SYSTEM A RAGGED

APPEARANCE. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO DIMINISH

AND THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR

INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST

CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO MAKE LANDFALL WITH 50-55 KT WINDS IN

AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LATEST

GFDL CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE

LANDFALL... WHICH IS A SHARP CONTRAST TO PREVIOUS RUNS. DUE TO

THIS LACK OF CONSISTENCY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT YET

REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY.

[RedScare]

Here's the dreaded CONE OF UNCERTAINTY!!!!

Forgot to add...

...Tropical Storm watch for the Texas Gulf Coast.

[houstonmacbro]

Here's the dreaded CONE OF UNCERTAINTY!!!!

Forgot to add...

...Tropical Storm watch for the Texas Gulf Coast.

[RedScare]

4:00 Public Advisory from the National Hurricane Center

000

WTNT35 KNHC 032043

TCPAT5

BULLETIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008

400 PM CDT SUN AUG 03 2008

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORMS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF

MEXICO...WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...

AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR

THE LOUISIANA COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

WESTWARD TO INTRACOASTAL CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA

WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT WEST OF

INTRACOASTAL CITY TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH

MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH

AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.1 WEST OR ABOUT 85

MILES...140 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND

ABOUT 415 MILES...665 KM...EAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...10 KM/HR...AND

A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST

DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER

OF THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE LOUISIANA COAST TONIGHT

AND MONDAY...AND APPROACH THE UPPER TEXAS COAST ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24

HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM

LATER TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE

HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE

WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN

ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE THE LOUISIANA COAST WITH

POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES. ONCE THE SYSTEM

MOVES TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4

INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER

SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...28.2 N...88.1 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000

PM CDT.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

[houstonmacbro]

I'm hearing thunder ... finally. That is a good thing.

[westguy]

Thunder wouldn't be part of this. Other forums are saying the pressure is dropping quickly, which means we could have a beast on our hands tomorrow if it continues.

[westguy]

We have Tropical Storm Edouard

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24

HOURS...AND EDOUARD COULD BE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE

LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM

FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE

AIRCRAFT WAS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATC...ml/032150.shtml?

Interesting note: the last pressure a couple of hours ago was 1007 MB.

Explosive Deepening:

A decrease in the minimum sea-level pressure of a tropical cyclone of 2.5 mb/hr for at least 12 hours or 5 mb/hr for at least six hours.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml

I think this is Alicia II if it hits Houston. This forum will be dead for a week while everyone cleans up and sweats with no electricity.

[JLWM8609]

Dang, and I'm picking up my freshly repainted car from the shop tommorow. Looks like it'll be spending the night in the office building parking garage if this thing becomes an Alicia Jr.

[Gary]

We have Tropical Storm Edouard

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24

HOURS...AND EDOUARD COULD BE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE

LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM

FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE

AIRCRAFT WAS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATC...ml/032150.shtml?

Interesting note: the last pressure a couple of hours ago was 1007 MB.

Explosive Deepening:

A decrease in the minimum sea-level pressure of a tropical cyclone of 2.5 mb/hr for at least 12 hours or 5 mb/hr for at least six hours.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml

I think this is Alicia II if it hits Houston. This forum will be dead for a week while everyone cleans up and sweats with no electricity.

Wow! That's a fast developing storm for sustained winds to jump 10mph in 56 minutes (See reds NHC post) .

[RedScare]

Up to 50 mph sustained winds.

The 7:00 pm advisory...

000

WTNT35 KNHC 032348

TCPAT5

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008

700 PM CDT SUN AUG 03 2008

...EDOUARD MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...HURRICANE WATCHES OR WARNINGS

MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST

FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO INTRACOASTAL

CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS

ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY

TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL

STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY

WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.2 WEST OR ABOUT 90

MILES...145 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND

ABOUT 415 MILES...670 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 4 MPH...6 KM/HR...AND

A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST

DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER

OF THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE LOUISIANA COAST TONIGHT

AND MONDAY...AND BE VERY NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA OR

THE UPPER TEXAS COAST ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24

HOURS...AND EDOUARD COULD BE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE

LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM

FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE

AIRCRAFT WAS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN

THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2

INCHES ALONG THE THE LOUISIANA COAST WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM

AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES. ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE UPPER TEXAS

COAST...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED

MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

REPEATING THE 700 PM CDT POSITION...28.1 N...88.2 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST NEAR 4 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 PM CDT.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[jm1fd]

Recent model runs....

[westguy]

We're now under a Hurricane Watch.

[Gary]

Am I correct that a Hurricanes strongest winds are on the southwest side?

Edit: Nevermind, I found the info. http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/D6.html

"First, the "right side of the storm" is defined with respect to the storm's motion: if the hurricane is moving to the west, the right side would be to the north of the storm; if the hurricane is moving to the north, the right side would be to the east of the storm, etc.

In general, the strongest winds in a hurricane are found on the right side of the storm because the motion of the hurricane also contributes to its swirling winds. A hurricane with a 90 mph [145 km/hr] winds while stationary would have winds up to 100 mph [160 km/hr] on the right side and only 80 mph [130 km/hr] on the left side if it began moving (any direction) at 10 mph [16 km/hr]".

[Trae]

Hurricane's strongest winds are on the east side. The SW side is the weakest.

[HtownWxBoy]

Am I correct that a Hurricanes strongest winds are on the southwest side?

Edit: Nevermind, I found the info. http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/D6.html

"First, the "right side of the storm" is defined with respect to the storm's motion: if the hurricane is moving to the west, the right side would be to the north of the storm; if the hurricane is moving to the north, the right side would be to the east of the storm, etc.

In general, the strongest winds in a hurricane are found on the right side of the storm because the motion of the hurricane also contributes to its swirling winds. A hurricane with a 90 mph [145 km/hr] winds while stationary would have winds up to 100 mph [160 km/hr] on the right side and only 80 mph [130 km/hr] on the left side if it began moving (any direction) at 10 mph [16 km/hr]".

The northern and eastern sides of the storm are the worst... for rain and wind. Look at Rita... it missed us just to the east and all we got was some wind and hardly any rain.

[editor]

It's not Tropical Storm Edouard. I'm renaming this topic and moving it to Breaking News until this passes.