China's economy

[Deut28Thirteen]

In less than 30 years China could overtake America's economy and in about 50 years double America's. Is this somthing America should look at and be worried or no big deal?

ARTICLE LINK

[crunchtastic]

In less than 30 years China could overtake America's economy and in about 50 years double America's. Is this somthing America should look at and be worried or no big deal?

ARTICLE LINK

All nations/states decline for a variety of reasons. Economics ain't necessarily the reason.

But if you're wondering if our government has a plan to continue to be the leading economic powerhouse on planet earth, the answer is ....we don't know, probably not, and population growth globally, (excepting Europe) is rather against us.

How young are you and how flexible are you?

[Subdude]

It is probably inevitable that the Chinese economy will grow larger in the aggregate than America's, but on a per capita basis the Chinese will still not be as well off for a while yet.

By some GDP measures the eurozone economy now exceeds that of the US due to the continued depreciation of the US dollar.

[houstonmacbro]

All nations/states decline for a variety of reasons. Economics ain't necessarily the reason.

But if you're wondering if our government has a plan to continue to be the leading economic powerhouse on planet earth, the answer is ....we don't know, probably not, and population growth globally, (excepting Europe) is rather against us.

How young are you and how flexible are you?

Yeah, don't expect the government to bail us out of this one. Or, apparently, business who's been busy building up these foreign empires at our expense.

[Subdude]

Yeah, don't expect the government to bail us out of this one. Or, apparently, business who's been busy building up these foreign empires at our expense.

Foreign economies aren't necessarily built "at our expense". Growth in China doesn't mean they are taking away from America, just that they are growing faster, and slower growth in China or Europe wouldn't make our economy grow any faster. If anything, it's more the opposite. This isn't a zero-sum game.

[houstonmacbro]

Foreign economies aren't necessarily built "at our expense". Growth in China doesn't mean they are taking away from America, just that they are growing faster, and slower growth in China or Europe wouldn't make our economy grow any faster. If anything, it's more the opposite. This isn't a zero-sum game.

I'm not economist but this kind of data seems pretty clear to me: http://www.epi.org/content.cfm/bp188.

NOTE: I know some of these kinds of think-tanks have some political spin and not sure about the 'spin' of this one, if there is one.

[Deut28Thirteen]

All nations/states decline for a variety of reasons. Economics ain't necessarily the reason.

But if you're wondering if our government has a plan to continue to be the leading economic powerhouse on planet earth, the answer is ....we don't know, probably not, and population growth globally, (excepting Europe) is rather against us.

How young are you and how flexible are you?

I thought the economy was one of the main aspects in why a nation will go in decline. One of the reasons for the poor living in third world countries is because they dont have a strong economy. Do you think America is in a decline or just slowed for the time being? I am young but not flexible to the idea in living in a country where the economy is in the decline rather than in a slow economic period. I believe in some parts of America are in the decline because so much jobs have gone overseas to countries like China and the goverment has not done enough to help.

[houstonmacbro]

I thought the economy was one of the main aspects in why a nation will go in decline. One of the reasons for the poor living in third world countries is because they dont have a strong economy. Do you think America is in a decline or just slowed for the time being? I am young but not flexible to the idea in living in a country where the economy is in the decline rather than in a slow economic period. I believe in some parts of America are in the decline because so much jobs have gone overseas to countries like China and the goverment has not done enough to help.

Like I said ... give up your pipe dream of 'the government' riding in to rescue the little guy. Government (left, right and center) is messed up bro.

Anyhow, I've read things that say we actually need immigration to help with the decline in population from the Baby Boomers. After them, each successive generation is getting smaller and smaller. We are only growing from Hispanics, a lesser degree from other ethnic groups and immigration.

Immigration is key ... legal of course.

[Subdude]

I'm not economist but this kind of data seems pretty clear to me: http://www.epi.org/content.cfm/bp188.

NOTE: I know some of these kinds of think-tanks have some political spin and not sure about the 'spin' of this one, if there is one.

Sponsored by the Alliance for American Manufacturing. Alarmist one-sided propaganda. Sheesh..

[houstonmacbro]

Sponsored by the Alliance for American Manufacturing. Alarmist one-sided propaganda. Sheesh..

How is that bad?

[Deut28Thirteen]

Like I said ... give up your pipe dream of 'the government' riding in to rescue the little guy. Government (left, right and center) is messed up bro.

Anyhow, I've read things that say we actually need immigration to help with the decline in population from the Baby Boomers. After them, each successive generation is getting smaller and smaller. We are only growing from Hispanics, a lesser degree from other ethnic groups and immigration.

Immigration is key ... legal of course.

I agree with you 100% on immigration and the goverment. But not to many immigrants would come to a country where the economy in is a downfall and cant get a job. If the goverment and American companies wanted to bring jobs back to America for the America people and the immigrants they would have already.

[TheNiche]

I thought the economy was one of the main aspects in why a nation will go in decline. One of the reasons for the poor living in third world countries is because they dont have a strong economy.

In the very long run, the economy is only an indicator of an efficient, just, and consistent legal system with checks and balances on the politicians that would so readily throw it into imbalance at the beckoning of the masses. It is the legal system that is key. If that is the one thing that we preserve, it'll be very difficult for most other countries to match our GDP per capita...unless they emulate us.

And if they do, we're all the better for it.

Do you think America is in a decline or just slowed for the time being?

If you look at the metrics underlying various recessions throughout the last century, it is apparent that recessions in recent times have actually been much easier to digest and overcome than they had been previously. Granted, the straight GDP data has some kinks in it, but the general tendency does reflect a fairly positive reality.

Now, as to how the output is distributed is another matter. The median household has taken it on the chin harder relative to the household in the top 5% income bracket. So even if there's more GDP to go around and to support higher GDP per capita, but it is largely allocated to relatively few households while the majority of households experience falling real wages, is that an economy in decline? I'd say no, but that's a subjective matter.

I believe in some parts of America are in the decline because so much jobs have gone overseas to countries like China and the goverment has not done enough to help.

Subdude is correct. It isn't a zero-sum game. The fact is, if they can do it more cheaply over there, good for them...and good for us. As consumers, we reap the savings. To the extent that land, labor, or capital is subsequently left idle, that will be offset as it is put to alternative uses.

[TheNiche]

Anyhow, I've read things that say we actually need immigration to help with the decline in population from the Baby Boomers. After them, each successive generation is getting smaller and smaller. We are only growing from Hispanics, a lesser degree from other ethnic groups and immigration.

Immigration is key ... legal of course.

Depends on the objective. If being the largest economy is our objective, then we desperately need immigration to grow our economy. But allowing more immigration may have an adverse effect upon wages. So the country as a whole can maintain and grow its position in the global marketplace (and political/military realm), but still see its average citizen made poorer by the process.

Take your pick.

FWIW, I agree. I want more immigration...albeit not ridiculously high levels and also with a reasonable cross-section of people from a broad spectrum of countries. Sorry Mexicans--nothing personal.

[Trae]

Like I said ... give up your pipe dream of 'the government' riding in to rescue the little guy. Government (left, right and center) is messed up bro.

Anyhow, I've read things that say we actually need immigration to help with the decline in population from the Baby Boomers. After them, each successive generation is getting smaller and smaller. We are only growing from Hispanics, a lesser degree from other ethnic groups and immigration.

Immigration is key ... legal of course.

My business law teacher this year told us that the generation born after 9/11/01, is larger than the Baby Boomer generation. So if you want to be a pediatrician, teacher, nurse, etc., big money in store for you in a few years.

[RedScare]

My business law teacher this year told us that the generation born after 9/11/01, is larger than the Baby Boomer generation. So if you want to be a pediatrician, teacher, nurse, etc., big money in store for you in a few years.

Depending on how you define the generations, Generation Y, which includes the Echo Boomers, is the same size as the Baby Boomers at 76 million people. Baby Boomers are born between 1946-64, and Generation Y, in some books, includes 1981-2000.

[TexasVines]

if one car is going 100mph and another car way back is going 120mph and eventually passes the 100mph car that does not mean suddenly the 100mph car is going in reverse...it just means another car is going faster

China still has massive social and environmental issues to deal with not to mention they are on the edge of what they can supply as far as food when people drop their sustenance farming and move to the cities....many areas of China that are intensively farmed already will never be able to have the type of mechanized AG that the USA and Brazil and other places have....similar to parts of Japan

the good news for China is they can deal with things in a way few others can...one child per couple, chopping peoples heads off for being unhappy, just dozing over things, and ignoring the shortened life span because of pollution.......so China is not a lock to grow past the USA by any means

China also has no issues about raping other third world countries and has no legal system that will allow those countries to go after China when they wake up in a ravaged hell hole.....the USA on the other hand practically begs other countries to sue us and our companies

[houstonmacbro]

The other thing is that China looks at things in much longer time frames than the West. They look at issues in hundreds of years whereas we look at things in increments of a few years or at most a decade or so.

[Vertigo58]

Now I really feel guilty while eating at a Chinese Restaurant. Should we stop patronizing them?

[houstonmacbro]

Now I really feel guilty while eating at a Chinese Restaurant. Should we stop patronizing them?

Only if the food REALLY disagrees with you.

[RedScare]

if one car is going 100mph and another car way back is going 120mph and eventually passes the 100mph car that does not mean suddenly the 100mph car is going in reverse...it just means another car is going faster

Kinda sounds like the one car is OVERTAKING the other....in much the same way as the title of this topic suggests.

[houstonmacbro]

Kinda sounds like the one car is OVERTAKING the other....in much the same way as the title of this topic suggests.

I don't think Americans like being 2nd place. But unless something changes China and India are going to overtake us based on their sheer size AND their numbers of engineers and Ph.D.s.

[TheNiche]

The other thing is that China looks at things in much longer time frames than the West. They look at issues in hundreds of years whereas we look at things in increments of a few years or at most a decade or so.

I would concur that they tend to make changes incrementally and are better at adhering to a long-range plan (this is easier to do within the context of their form of government), but "hundreds of years" cannot be fathomed. Do you have any evidence of that?

[crunchtastic]

Not so much relevant to China's economy, but I do believe, strongly, that what what most people (of a certain age) consider the American Way of Life is waning. A current recession fuels that. The anger and the fear is palpable. IMO, Joe Horn is a good example. The shockingly (to me) angry and violent rhetoric masquerading as 'debate' on illegal immigration feels like a lot of frightened, threatened, middle class, middle age white guys who know in their gut that things are changing, permanently, and they're getting the short end of the stick. Gas isn't ever going to be cheap again, global economics dictate that manufacturing is not coming back to US soil, things like medical care will, increasingly, be available only to people of means, etc.

Perhaps this is too subjective--but when I see a news story about how the US Supreme Court is finally going to uphold the rule of law regarding Gitmo prisoners, and the overwhleming public reaction is that none shuld be tried, no proof of terrorism is required, and they can all just be shot--that is a good indication, IMO , that the old America is toast. When citizens no longer value the single thing (the Constitution) that has distinguished this country and made it what it is.

[TexasVines]

Kinda sounds like the one car is OVERTAKING the other....in much the same way as the title of this topic suggests.

yes but just because you get passed it suddenly does not mean economic decline is eminent like is suggested by some in this thread.....the USA still trades strongly with countries that we have passed by in economic power and many of those countries still have strong growing economies and better lifestyles than China for sure

[houstonmacbro]

I would concur that they tend to make changes incrementally and are better at adhering to a long-range plan (this is easier to do within the context of their form of government), but "hundreds of years" cannot be fathomed. Do you have any evidence of that?

Nothing I can quote. Just snippets of things read about their views and how they view things in historical contexts.

But no ... can't quote anything.

[TexasVines]

Not so much relevant to China's economy, but I do believe, strongly, that what what most people (of a certain age) consider the American Way of Life is waning. A current recession fuels that. The anger and the fear is palpable. IMO, Joe Horn is a good example. The shockingly (to me) angry and violent rhetoric masquerading as 'debate' on illegal immigration feels like a lot of frightened, threatened, middle class, middle age white guys who know in their gut that things are changing, permanently, and they're getting the short end of the stick. Gas isn't ever going to be cheap again, global economics dictate that manufacturing is not coming back to US soil, things like medical care will, increasingly, be available only to people of means, etc.

Perhaps this is too subjective--but when I see a news story about how the US Supreme Court is finally going to uphold the rule of law regarding Gitmo prisoners, and the overwhelming public reaction is that none should be tried, no proof of terrorism is required, and they can all just be shot--that is a good indication, IMO , that the old America is toast. When citizens no longer value the single thing (the Constitution) that has distinguished this country and made it what it is.

your reply is sadly juvenile

we are not in a recession right now and the economic numbers back that up.....as does nancey pelosi when she just ask for the strategic reserve to be tapped because we are "moving towards a recession"

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/07/08/...in4243120.shtml

please get your story straight....are we in a recession or moving towards one.....or is pelosi just full of BS

http://wbztv.com/business/silicon.valley.o...g.2.285991.html

^^^^^IT jobs moving back to the USA

http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/display.article?id=10958

^^^^^factory jobs back to the USA

people are threatened by illegal immigrants because they live at a standard that only you and a few fools find acceptable....and even the ones that are nice polite law abiding people often are victimized by crime and do not call police....and plenty of illegals do commit crime and specifically come here for that (see the joe horn incident that you used as a poor example yourself).....and it is really blacks and other minorities that pay the highest price for illegal immigration.....illegals will never threaten a doctor or lawyers job

obama will fix health care like hillary did

and the people in gitmo are not US citizens nor are they members of an organized army......so only a total fool would think the US constitution applies to them

your response was pathetic

[TheNiche]

Depending on how you define the generations, Generation Y, which includes the Echo Boomers, is the same size as the Baby Boomers at 76 million people. Baby Boomers are born between 1946-64, and Generation Y, in some books, includes 1981-2000.

While this is accurate, it reflects that the rate of population growth has slowed considerably even as people are living longer and thereby being affected by a greater number of medical maladies in their retirement years. As compared with previous generations, the caretaking of Baby Boomers is going to be exceedingly difficult.

Over the long weekend, I had to be caretaker for my grandparents as they went on a little vacation to Brenham. It went flawlessly but took three of their four kids and myself to organize and execute it. My parents only have me...and my dad likes to brag that his 'hard life' and 'hedonism' will lead to his early demise and that I won't need to worry about his caretaking and that he doesn't need to worry about saving for retirement...but has this odd tendency of going to the doctor at the slightest bit of pain.

[Deut28Thirteen]

I would concur that they tend to make changes incrementally and are better at adhering to a long-range plan (this is easier to do within the context of their form of government), but "hundreds of years" cannot be fathomed. Do you have any evidence of that?

If you look at China's progress from 30-40 years ago you can see how they transfromed themselves into a economic power. That does not just happen in a couple of years in takes a long term plan to achieve.

[TexasVines]

I would say the great wall shows some type of extremely long term planning....not that it proves this is always the best method....since it was never finished and the threats subsided long before it ever would have been completed or useful against modern threats

[TheNiche]

If you look at China's progress from 30-40 years ago you can see how they transfromed themselves into a economic power. That does not just happen in a couple of years in takes a long term plan to achieve.

"Hundreds" (plural) > 40 > 30