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Why Oil Prices Will Tank


sifuwong

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They're wrong to put out such a general figure, however I do agree with their broader description.

Niche, my point is that it's a very specific term that traders (professional or otherwise) use. I wasn't just quoting that one source. If you say the word "correction" to someone who is active in a market, any market, 10% is the specific number they will think of.

http://www.bullinvestors.com/Stock_Market_Definitions.htm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_trends#Correction

http://en.mimi.hu/stockmarket/correction.html

for a few more.

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Niche, my point is that it's a very specific term that traders (professional or otherwise) use. I wasn't just quoting that one source. If you say the word "correction" to someone who is active in a market, any market, 10% is the specific number they will think of.

Seems to me from what you provided that there are lots of different definitions, and that the more broad ones tend to be the most meaningful when the word "correction" stands alone without any context.

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Seems to me from what you provided that there are lots of different definitions, and that the more broad ones tend to be the most meaningful when the word "correction" stands alone without any context.

Whatever you say, go talk to some other professional traders besides me and they'll tell you the same thing about 10% being a specific threshold. You and I are on the same side of this particular argument and there's no point in getting into a sub-argument with you.

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USA Today recently posted the same story--retail prices to remain around $4 a gallon for the next year.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/e...as-prices_N.htm

Funny, Kiplingers is reporting the opposite...

http://www.kiplinger.com/businessresource/...rop_080611.html

Oil prices continue to gyrate, but the longer-term trend is gradually down as the commodities bubble slowly deflates. Volatility will remain high. Still, look for oil prices to fall about 30% to around $100 per barrel by the end of the year.

And look for gasoline to dip to $3.45 a gallon by December, down about 14% from this month's high. Why? Demand is falling, the same way it did in 1979 and 1980, when pain at the pump slashed U.S. gas use by 5% and 6%, respectively.

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Found a good article today. Very balanced reporting for a change.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080613/ap_on_bi_ge/oil_prices

I hadn't seen that.

Apparently, there are all these economist that are doing these comparisons of other types of market bubbles (stocks, housing, tech stocks, etc.) and they feel that oil is at the peak and will burst as well.

They are predicting we're at the high now and therefore will burst in a few weeks.

Guess time will tell huh?

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I hadn't seen that.

Apparently, there are all these economist that are doing these comparisons of other types of market bubbles (stocks, housing, tech stocks, etc.) and they feel that oil is at the peak and will burst as well.

They are predicting we're at the high now and therefore will burst in a few weeks.

Guess time will tell huh?

Here is an interesting article from The Independent. Somewhere along the line, I thought they were AT capacity, but apparently not. What was really telling was the following quote:

But it appears the Saudis are just as worried that record prices
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Interesting gyrations in the oil market today. Jumps to a record near $140, plunges to $132, ends up right where it started at $134.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/5839801.html

Personally, I don't think the Saudis have nearly the excess capacity that they claim, but we shall see.

I'm in agreement with you on that. I figure if they had excess capacity (and there is demand) they would have been producing more all along. I could be wrong, but why keep it in the ground if you can sell it for a nice high profit.

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I'm in agreement with you on that. I figure if they had excess capacity (and there is demand) they would have been producing more all along. I could be wrong, but why keep it in the ground if you can sell it for a nice high profit.

Because you have to say "it isn't there" to keep those high profit prices up.

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Personally, I don't think the Saudis have nearly the excess capacity that they claim, but we shall see.

We're at 85 million a day. Let's say that we need a 10% increase to make a dent. We'd another ~9 million a day. They come to the table with 200K more. Not enough. I think they're near or at capacity.

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We're at 85 million a day. Let's say that we need a 10% increase to make a dent. We'd another ~9 million a day. They come to the table with 200K more. Not enough. I think they're near or at capacity.

Of course, every number you present after 85 mm is one that you pulled out of thin air.....

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No refineries work @ 100% capacity. They have contingencies that allow for routine and seasonal maintenance, that is just a way of life for a refinery. They have to do that so it can continue to produce maximum capacities year round with as little lag time as possible. However maintenance and repair work at refineries distort the normal demand and inventory relationships between crude and refined fuel products such as gasoline, so speculators then skew the market and the domino effect takes over from there. They sit back watch and see when the refineries sections come back online, and when they take them offline to do maintenance, when the overarching issue is simply refinery utilization. But the vultures are waiting to see these big, fat margins get exploited and prices rise. It's all a play on numbers. You see they make their big money when the prices are moving around and margins are changing. Stagnant prices are a nightmare for them. The actual margins are better at the wholesale rack prices, when the prices drop. They drag their feet slightly as prices drop a few cents, or step it down in stages, prices drop slightly, the rush is on to buy buy buy, when it gives the appearance of being cheaper, when in fact the margins are bigger and they are making more money on the bottom line. Everybody likes to point fingers Upstream as the cause of the prices when in fact, our cost to get it in the pipe doesn't move around that much, but once it's headed downstream, let the games begin!!!

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This is a response I wrote to a post on another board. It sort of explains how refineries work, and why refinery capacity numbers can be deceiving. These factor play in as well as those mentioned by Mr Barnes.

I read what I wrote and it is confusing. The point I am making is really two distinct points, first drilling in ANWR gives us a lot of usable barrels for the US thus cutting some dependence. We don't have to nor will we sell it to foriegn buyers, the market is strong enough right here in the US. Second was that Congress felt the need to investigate Alaskan oil going somewhere else other than the US. No other country in the world really cares that their oil leaves the country, they just look for the best market. I just find it ironic that the congress would get upset with an issue like this when we live on the fact that other countries export so we can have enough. Also even though many people don't believe it the oil industry is very effcient about the movement of oil and taking product to the nearest refinery to minimize transport costs as much as possible. Obviously thats why we get more oil from Mexico and Canad than any other countries in the world, because they are right here. A lot of other factors play into where oil goes, like what grade is it and what the status of the refineries it can be optimally processed in. Basically there are three types of refineries, the first and cheapest can process the best and lightest crude and is the cheapest to build. The heat the oil and pretty much take what comes out of the craking towers and sell it. However this process limits how much gas, distillates (deisel, and jet fuel) and other products you can get. The second which costs more will has reformates than can take some of the heavier products, pressurize and heat them and squeeze more gas and distillates out. The third and most expensive has everything the first two do and more, they contain a lot of stainless steel piping and tanking and vessels that can take the heavy, high sulfur crudes and turn them into usable products. Refinery utilization rates can be deceiving in the aggregate because as an earlier poster pointed out refinery capacity was running near 89% so it was not a refinery issue. Well yes and no. The crudes used to day are heavier and contain more sulfur which in the refinery process bonds with certain chemicals and makes acids. As I stated before not all refineries can run all types of oils so some refinery capacity goes unutilized not because of lack of demand, but rather because of a lack of the right kind of crude being available. Lately deisel demand has been so strong and the crack spreads have been running as high as $37 a barrel that refiners are making more deisel because the gas crack spreads are only $7 to $8 a barrel. They have made so much deisel that we are actually exporting it to South America.

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Lately deisel demand has been so strong and the crack spreads have been running as high as $37 a barrel that refiners are making more deisel because the gas crack spreads are only $7 to $8 a barrel. They have made so much deisel that we are actually exporting it to South America.

Please explain this in non oil terms. What is the crack spread?

Why is diesel being exported to South America? Are they paying more for diesel than it can be sold in the US?

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Please explain this in non oil terms. What is the crack spread?

Why is diesel being exported to South America? Are they paying more for diesel than it can be sold in the US?

The price difference between what a barrel of crude costs vs what you can sell a barrel of refined product for.

Oil $100 bbl

Deisel $137 bbl

Gasoline $ 108 bbl

Crack spread is $37

(hypothetical example)

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Looks like China's subsidizing of their fuel has taking on their budget and decided enough is enough.

I don't know how much they are subsidizing, but they're raising their fuel prices:

http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/19/markets/oi...dex.htm?cnn=yes

The article states that prices will rise in China by 8%. Given the relative inelasticity of fuel, I don't know how much that will help.

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The article states that prices will rise in China by 8%. Given the relative inelasticity of fuel, I don't know how much that will help.

It may not result in a great deal of conservation by those already using a lot of fuel, but it'll definitely supress demand growth going forward.

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