Mr. Chenevert Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 I am not aware of any recent changes that would significantly impact ones ability to use the unemployment rate to identify trends.Feel free to nitpick in your next post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidtownCoog Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 Hillary and Obama sure are using it. Ohio has 8% unemployment, but maybe Red should tell them it don't mean nuttin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BryanS Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 My retirement portfolio has lost 5% this year already. The bad part is that when I looked at my elections, NONE of them (bonds included) are doing well any more. That is down from 22% returns from some of the choices I had last year. Dammit!Stay the course. Keep a steady hand on the tiller and keep contributing. It may get a lot worse before it gets better. Look at this as an opportunity to buy/invest more shares at a cheaper price. When life hands you lemons, make lemonade. Some say take a "flight to safety" and invest in gold, other commodities. But those charts look like the NASDAQ composite circa 2000. No, thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJones Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 I am not aware of any recent changes that would significantly impact ones ability to use the unemployment rate to identify trends.Feel free to nitpick in your next post.So, the equation hasn't changed in the past 50 years, correct ? No, I have no problem with the jobless rate if the equation is still the same one that they have been using to find the percentage over the past 50 years. I don't beleive there is a real lack of jobs to be had, if corporate America would quit sending jobs over seas. the problem is, who is willing to fill them. Flipping burgers and digging ditches is alot better than begging on the street corner, or waiting on the porch for that Government cheese, but it seems that begging pays a little better, but what is your self-esteem and sense of accomplishment worth ? However, I do fear what will happen in the coming couple of years to the unemployment rate if a Democratic Pres. gets in office and passes their tax reform bills to tax those making over $200k a year almost 60%. They forget to take in effect that alot of them making over $200k are small business owners who have employees and benefits to pay. I do like Obama's plan to 86 corporate tax breaks for those companies who DO outsource jobs overseas. I find that to be a fantastic idea. <---(this is the nitpick, but not directed towards you.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
houstonmacbro Posted March 5, 2008 Author Share Posted March 5, 2008 Hillary and Obama sure are using it. Ohio has 8% unemployment, but maybe Red should tell them it don't mean nuttin.Unemployment, unfortunately, feels different when you are fully employed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
houstonmacbro Posted March 5, 2008 Author Share Posted March 5, 2008 Stay the course. Keep a steady hand on the tiller and keep contributing. It may get a lot worse before it gets better. Look at this as an opportunity to buy/invest more shares at a cheaper price. When life hands you lemons, make lemonade. Some say take a "flight to safety" and invest in gold, other commodities. But those charts look like the NASDAQ composite circa 2000. No, thank you.Well, the way our retirement plan is set up (457) I do not have a choice but to either keep investing or not. I can change my elections between various funds, but they're all crap right now. I did load a little more towards bonds since they seem to be doing better than anything else, but ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
houstonmacbro Posted March 5, 2008 Author Share Posted March 5, 2008 You know, I was tempted to look at the 14% drop in the stock market, the drop in housing prices and sales, drops in construction, the mortgage crisis, skyrocketing foreclosures, the rising inflation rate, the rising unemployment rate, and the plummetting dollar, and think, hey, maybe Warren Buffet is right. But, then I saw saw some dude on an internet forum say that the economy was great, and decided, what the hell does Warren Buffet know anyway?I know right! What does a billionaire know anyway? That hack! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crunchtastic Posted March 5, 2008 Share Posted March 5, 2008 Well, the way our retirement plan is set up (457) I do not have a choice but to either keep investing or not. I can change my elections between various funds, but they're all crap right now. I did load a little more towards bonds since they seem to be doing better than anything else, but ...457s won't allow investments in commodities or precious metals anyway. Skew a little more toward cash equivalents and bonds and hang on. Mine sucks too right now. My IRAs and 401k both. Been through it before, and I have to be honest, it's unnerving. The only thing that makes it easier is to save as much cash as possible. You won't make any return to speak of, but if you can swing 10 to 15K in a savings or money market, it's a major cushion. I rode out the last wave of joblessness that way. All you folks who don't know anyone who has been out of work must not know anyone in management in financial services, because it's been that way now for the past 7, 8 years. No job is safe in banking, insurance or investments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJones Posted March 5, 2008 Share Posted March 5, 2008 Manufacturing jobs? What manufacturing jobs? They don't call it the rust belt for nothing. We lost our manufacturing base to the Chinese and Japanese, years ago. That's why some think that the high cost of oil won't affect our economy as much as in the 1970's (because we don't have to haul around parts and pieces of everything we make and sell in this country, burning up oil, driving up prices, on everything.) It's all done overseas now, limiting the benefit we get from the dollar decline.Sorry Bryan, I just caught this and couldn't let it go. Yes, the Japanese competition has had a big part in the Big 3's demise. But, it is the UAW that holds an even larger part in their demise. The UAW basically kept biting the hand that fed them, so what does the Big 3 do ? MODERNIZE the whole show in an effort to reduce the amount of bloodsucking UNION workers draining their profits with shoddy workmanship and unecessary wage increases. The workers lost pride in their work because they became brainwashed and consumed with what their so-called "Union Leaders" were telling them. We discussed this alot in another thread, I will try to find the link to it. Sorry to get off topic a bit, but this does kind of fall into the topic of WHO can do the work we need done HERE in America, instead of outsourcing it. I bet there are a whole slew of folks in Detroit, Flint, Lansing and Saginaw that would love to have their $22 an hour jobs back right about now ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJones Posted March 5, 2008 Share Posted March 5, 2008 457s won't allow investments in commodities or precious metals anyway. Skew a little more toward cash equivalents and bonds and hang on. Mine sucks too right now. My IRAs and 401k both. Been through it before, and I have to be honest, it's unnerving. The only thing that makes it easier is to save as much cash as possible. You won't make any return to speak of, but if you can swing 10 to 15K in a savings or money market, it's a major cushion. I rode out the last wave of joblessness that way. My 401k is in O.K. shape, not great. I had to move some stocks around in order to thwart off a serious drop in my main stocks. I will tell you that they WERE Automotive business stocks, but some quick thinking on my part<----not what usually happens for me) got me through it. Crunch I think the only alternative is to make some other type of investment for a quick turnover profit, should bad times present themsleves. I have thought about writing a couple of children's books. I can even do my own illustrations, and NO Red, they aren't friggin' stick figures. Crunch, I recommend rebuilding street rods and selling them for profit. BTW, Mark, are you ready to buy, I am ready to sell. OOPS, crud, sorry for the double post ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidtownCoog Posted March 5, 2008 Share Posted March 5, 2008 All you folks who don't know anyone who has been out of work must not know anyone in management in financial services, because it's been that way now for the past 7, 8 years. No job is safe in banking, insurance or investments.Well you can't blame that on the economy. Speaking of stats, today the ADP employment report comes out, and it's usally a good barometer of the Govt. report which comes out Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BryanS Posted March 5, 2008 Share Posted March 5, 2008 Sorry Bryan, I just caught this and couldn't let it go. Yes, the Japanese competition has had a big part in the Big 3's demise. But, it is the UAW that holds an even larger part in their demise. The UAW basically kept biting the hand that fed them, so what does the Big 3 do ? MODERNIZE the whole show in an effort to reduce the amount of bloodsucking UNION workers draining their profits with shoddy workmanship and unecessary wage increases. The workers lost pride in their work because they became brainwashed and consumed with what their so-called "Union Leaders" were telling them. We discussed this alot in another thread, I will try to find the link to it. Sorry to get off topic a bit, but this does kind of fall into the topic of WHO can do the work we need done HERE in America, instead of outsourcing it. I bet there are a whole slew of folks in Detroit, Flint, Lansing and Saginaw that would love to have their $22 an hour jobs back right about now ? I don't necessarily disagree. We lost our base, due to competition. Part of that is how we handled labor (as you state), the serious lack of quality controls, and Detroit thinking that cars like this were actually a good idea: My point is, we really don't manufacture much of anything anymore in this country, for one reason or another. Some advocate that a falling dollar is a good thing because exports get cheaper, imports become more expensive. Problem is... if everything you buy is made in another country, outside of the US, then you end up paying more for those goods, and that puts a strain on people here at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNiche Posted March 5, 2008 Share Posted March 5, 2008 My point is, we really don't manufacture much of anything anymore in this country, for one reason or another. Some advocate that a falling dollar is a good thing because exports get cheaper, imports become more expensive. Problem is... if everything you buy is made in another country, outside of the US, then you end up paying more for those goods, and that puts a strain on people here at home.As demand for labor increases so as to increase industrial production, unemployment is made lower (ceteris paribus), the labor market tighter, and wages higher. But the wages don't buy as much. It is almost a wash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crunchtastic Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 Well you can't blame that on the economy.Actually I attribute it to M&A activity, but mostly the relentless pursuit of share price at the expense of all else. How do you think we got to the credit crisis? You can't seriously be suggesting that everytime a bank or invesment house lays off 5, 10, 15 thousand people, it's not related to the economy. Financial services is at least a third of the entire US economy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crunchtastic Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 Crunch I think the only alternative is to make some other type of investment for a quick turnover profit, should bad times present themsleves. I have thought about writing a couple of children's books. I can even do my own illustrations, and NO Red, they aren't friggin' stick figures. Crunch, I recommend rebuilding street rods and selling them for profit. Children's books! Why didn't I think of that? You'll be joining the illustrious ranks of Madonna, Princess Fergie and, I'd imagine, more than a few unpublished pervs. Street rods only if I can get my own show. Are there any photogenic mechanics left with the apropriate amount of tattoo work, who aren't already pimpin rides? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KinkaidAlum Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 Hillary and Obama sure are using it. Ohio has 8% unemployment, but maybe Red should tell them it don't mean nuttin.Funny thing is, I would actually think that if Ohio is OFFICIALLY reporting an unemployment rate of 8%, then things are REALLY bad there. Understanding that the system of reporting is flawed doesn't mean you still can't use the stats.In fact, using Red's theory, since the official report is saying 8% unemployment things could be a LOT worse considering that many folks might have just stopped looking for work and are therefore not being counted. The way I read it, that means Ohio's true unemployment rate is prolly in the double digits now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crunchtastic Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 Funny thing is, I would actually think that if Ohio is OFFICIALLY reporting an unemployment rate of 8%, then things are REALLY bad there. Understanding that the system of reporting is flawed doesn't mean you still can't use the stats.In fact, using Red's theory, since the official report is saying 8% unemployment things could be a LOT worse considering that many folks might have just stopped looking for work and are therefore not being counted. The way I read it, that means Ohio's true unemployment rate is prolly in the double digits now.I did not check in at The Big Picture yesterday. Too bad because one of the top entries is a link to a little piece called 'The Misleading Jobless Rate' complete with chart porn.You would be correct about double digits, and not just Ohio.http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/05/business...amp;oref=slogin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNiche Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 Per the NYT article:There are only two possible explanations for this bizarre combination of a falling employment rate and a falling unemployment rate. The first is that there has been a big increase in the number of people not working purely by their own choice. You can think of them as the self-unemployed. They include retirees, as well as stay-at-home parents, people caring for aging parents and others doing unpaid work.The second possible explanation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedScare Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 No less than Tom Nardone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNiche Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 Hmmm....seems as if the guy who creates the unemployment rate agrees with me. Imagine that.The extent to which it is apparent that he may agree with you is extremely limited. You've said a lot of things. And all this guy said was that this number by itself doesn't mean much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJones Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 Hmmm....seems as if the guy who creates the unemployment rate agrees with me. Imagine that.I take it as meaning that to arrive at that 5 percent is a little more complex just saying "X divided by Y = eggroll" ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidtownCoog Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 Houston's 2007 job growth much higher than thoughtRevision of earlier estimate finds city added 100,000 positions last yearhttp://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/5598254.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNiche Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 Houston's 2007 job growth much higher than thoughtRevision of earlier estimate finds city added 100,000 positions last yearhttp://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/5598254.htmlAlthough it is unclear whether and to what degree Dallas, Atlanta, or NYC will get revised, I'd suspect that this probably is going to put us at the top of the heap as far as employment growth is concerned...whether counted by absolute numbers or by percentage growth. 4% year-over-year growth is nothing to sneeze at for a city of our size! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
houstonmacbro Posted March 7, 2008 Author Share Posted March 7, 2008 Well, I guess this topic has turned to a Houston economic lesson. I think my original question was whether we think there is a recession occurring.With oil officially above $105 and the dollar tanking things are getting more expensive. Houston --for those that can't remember- is located in Texas which is located in the USA. While Houston might be doing okay, it IS a part of the larger economic picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crunchtastic Posted March 7, 2008 Share Posted March 7, 2008 Well, I guess this topic has turned to a Houston economic lesson. I think my original question was whether we think there is a recession occurring.With oil officially above $105 and the dollar tanking things are getting more expensive. Houston --for those that can't remember- is located in Texas which is located in the USA. While Houston might be doing okay, it IS a part of the larger economic picture.I'm glad I'm here, given job growth, real estate and overall outlook for Houston. But like you point out, Macbro, inflation is national and though folks here are working, their house is not losing value, etc, and they are paying more, in some cases a lot more, for most things. It adds up when you haven't gotten more than a 3% raise in years, and groceries and fuel are 15-20% more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedScare Posted March 7, 2008 Share Posted March 7, 2008 Well, I guess this topic has turned to a Houston economic lesson. I think my original question was whether we think there is a recession occurring.With oil officially above $105 and the dollar tanking things are getting more expensive. Houston --for those that can't remember- is located in Texas which is located in the USA. While Houston might be doing okay, it IS a part of the larger economic picture.Well, if your question was about Houston, the answer would clearly be "No". Nationally, it appears that we are, or nearly are. It is easy to look around us here and think everything is fine. And yes, inflation is far worse than the ridiculously doctored CPI that every presidental administration redoes to make things look better than they are. My favorite is "core inflation", the rate of inflation with food and energy taken out...yeah, take out the two things we pay for most often, and tell us how great a job you are doing keeping inflation in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
houstonmacbro Posted March 7, 2008 Author Share Posted March 7, 2008 Well, if your question was about Houston, the answer would clearly be "No". Nationally, it appears that we are, or nearly are. It is easy to look around us here and think everything is fine. And yes, inflation is far worse than the ridiculously doctored CPI that every presidental administration redoes to make things look better than they are. My favorite is "core inflation", the rate of inflation with food and energy taken out...yeah, take out the two things we pay for most often, and tell us how great a job you are doing keeping inflation in check.Yeah, it is all a ruse. I know I am feeling it every day from the groceries to the gas I put in my car. There is no escaping the runup in prices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidtownCoog Posted March 7, 2008 Share Posted March 7, 2008 If y'all keep talking about it we'll definely see a Recession. Consumer confidence is 2/3 of the economy. Go Shopping, Y'all!http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/headli...iz/5600813.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedScare Posted March 7, 2008 Share Posted March 7, 2008 The Labor Department's report, released today, also showed that the nation's unemployment rate dipped to 4.8 percent as hundreds of thousands of people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
houstonmacbro Posted March 7, 2008 Author Share Posted March 7, 2008 If y'all keep talking about it we'll definely see a Recession. Consumer confidence is 2/3 of the economy. Go Shopping, Y'all!http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/headli...iz/5600813.htmlI just bought an expensive iPod so I am contributing to the economy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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