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North Texas Tops 6 Million

slfunk

By slfunk
in Dallas/Fort Worth/Metroplex

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Houston19514

Houston19514

Posted
Posted
Why? It's based largely on the same reference material you just used.

First of all, we don't really know what the "statistics" in the article are based on. They never tell us. That would be red flag number one.

Red Flag No. 2: They go on to compare apples to oranges. The article starts out talking about the 16-county area, i.e., the Combined Metropolitan Area. But then they pivot to pronounce that the Census Bureau figures show "Dallas-Fort Worth as the country's fifth-largest Metropolitan Statistical Area", based on the 2000 Census. That appears to be true, but that is comparing the DFW Metropolitan Statistical Area (a 12-county area, leaving out only the 117,698 people of Cook, Hood, Sommervelle, and Palo Pinto Counties). That compares to, for example, San Francisco without Napa, San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Santa Cruz-Watsonville, Santa Rosa-Petaluma, and Vellejo-Fairfield; Washington DC without , among others, Baltimore; Boston without Manchester NH and Worcester. To say the least, it's rather misleading to have an article discussing the Combined Metroplitan Area population of D-FW and suddenly throw in a ranking of a different statistic altogether, without clarifying that you're doing so.

Red Flag No. 3 and the most important flaw:

The April 1, 2000 population of the D-FW Combined Metropolitan Area was 5,346,119. The latest Census Bureau estimate was for July 31, 2003, and it came to 5,707,368. That's a growth of 361,249. Now, the article does tell us (without giving a source or method for arriving at this estimate) that D-FW grew by 148,900 people in 2004. They never tell us what date their population estimate is for, so to be generous, I'll assume they are talking about Dec. 31, 2004. So, starting with their number of 6,014,465 for 2004 population, if we subtract their growth for 2004 (148,900) we get to a Dec 31 2003 population of 5,865,565. To get from the Census Bureau's July 31, 2003 estimate of 5,707,368 to their Dec. 31, 2003 estimate of 5,865,565 D-FW would have to have grown by 158,197 IN SIX MONTHS. Even this article doesn't suggest any such thing. (In fact they claim growth for the entirety of 2003 of only 146,400.) (If I have made any errors in my calculation, please point them out. I stand ready to be corrected.)

Put another way, if the article is correct, D-FW would have grown in 1 1/2 years, nearly as much as it grew in the prior 3 1/3 years. Color me skeptical.

I have no doubt that the D-FW Combined Metropolitan Area is getting close to 6,000,000, but I don't see any evidence, least of all in the information presented in this article, that it has already done so.

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Houston19514

Houston19514

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^ Still smells like sour grapes to me.

Where are the sour grapes? Pardon me if I like to be factual and hold journalists and chambers of commerce to some standards.

Maybe D-FW did reach a population of 6,000,000 in 2004, but there is no evidence of it given in that article beyond a mere statement by a Dallas consultant with NO backup or support.

D-FW metro area is bigger than Houston and has been ever since Fort Worth was joined with Dallas by the Census Bureau. I hold no grudge against them for that, Good grief.

And if it makes you happier, I would expect D-FW to reach 6,000,000 in 2005. There, are those sweet enough grapes for you?

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2112

2112

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These are the facts, and they are undisputed: Even if you add the population of Fort Worth (against their wishes, mind you), to the population of Dallas, Dallas IS AND CONTINUES TO BE smaller than Houston. Houston is the largest CITY in the state of Texas, and nationally, it falls right behind Chicago, Los Angeles, and New York. These are the facts, and they are undisputed.

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marc

marc

Posted
Posted
:overly dumb sarcastic tone: YOu'rE SToopId! DALLAS RuLez!!!!1!!11!!!!!1!  :wacko:

:mellow:

I'm with you 2112. Houston's number 4. Why argue something so simple? :huh:

Just a question: As a native Houstonian (I live in LA now) ...... I have always wondered what the draw is to Dallas anyway. I have only been there twice for some Beta Club conference several years ago........and well......... I wasn't really all that impressed. What's the big deal? Educate me.

I mean, it seems, from the forum and the little (emphasis on little) I have read, some of the cutting edge "stuff" tends to go to Dallas instead of Houston.....

and I would just chalk it up to the TV series, but uhhhhh, wasn't that like 20 years ago?! :P

So, enlighten me.......... why Dallas?

m.

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SpaceCity

SpaceCity

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Posted
These are the facts, and they are undisputed: Even if you add the population of Fort Worth (against their wishes, mind you), to the population of Dallas, Dallas IS AND CONTINUES TO BE smaller than Houston. Houston is the largest CITY in the state of Texas, and nationally, it falls right behind Chicago, Los Angeles, and New York. These are the facts, and they are undisputed. And now, this is the time when someone from Dallas will now attempt to redefine "City", "largest", and the word "is".

...standing by....

This represents a fundamental insecurity of our city. Just because the Dallas area is growing we feel threatened.

The story did not say that Houston was NOT the fourth largest city. The story did not mention Houston. It simply said that the North Texas region is 6 million and growing. IT DOES NOT AFFECT HOUSTON AT ALL.

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Houston19514

Houston19514

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The source is named in the first paragraph of the story. I think this proves you stopped reading after you saw the headline.

Nice try, genius. Tell me this... if I stopped reading after I saw the headline, how is it that I quoted a number of "statistics" and other matters from the article. Maybe YOU should try reading beyond the first sentence?

As to the "source"... did I say they didn't name a "source"? I don't think so. Yes, the "journalist" named a "source"... What I said was that we don't know what the "statistics" are based on because thy never tell us. Did they even start with census figures? What was their methodology? How did they (and by they I mean the consultants, not the "journalist") come up with their "estimate"? In the words of my post (which you quote, but apparently either didn't bother to read or were unable to comprehend) "we don't really know what the "statistics" in the article are based on. They never tell us."

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SpaceCity

SpaceCity

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This story is not that hard to believe. Additionally, it does not come at the expense of Houston. People aren't leaving Houston to move to Dallas. Why are we so defensive over this?

The statistics are based on the study conducted by the DBJ. Why is that so hard to swallow?

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Houston19514

Houston19514

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It's hard to swallow for the reasons I explained in my post. To sum it up for you... it's hard to swallow because they don't back it up by giving any idea of how they came to their conclusion. It's also hard to swallow because it clearly contradicts the estimates put forth by the Census Bureau, as I demonstrated in rather great detail in my post.

NOTHING in my post indicated I thougth that D-FW growth comes at the expense of Houston or that I in any way, shape, or form am defensive or bitter over D-FW's growth. I just saw some objectively recognizable flaws in the information being presented, and thought I would call it to everyone's attention. But objective facts seem to be increasinbly unpopular on this board. Why are you so defensive about an objective, fact-based, well-thought-out challenge to the alleged "facts" presented? As I said in my earlier posts, I invite correction to my analysis, but all I've gotten so far is whining that the analysis shouldn't even be undertaken. How dare I challenge the Dallas Business Journal!

Further, maybe you are defensive about the possibility of D-FW reaching 6,000,000 population, but I'm certainly not. If you read my posts, you'll see that I happily predicted that they will probably achieve that milestone this year.

For the record, the "study" was not conducted by the Dallas Business Journal, it was conducted by the Dallas-based School District Strategies L.L.C. You really do have a problem with reading comprehension don't you?

And as to "why that is so hard to swallow," Let me go over this one more time: Try to read and follow along this time will you? We don't know what the "statistics" are based on because thy never tell us. Did they even start with census figures? What was their methodology? How did they (and by they I mean the consultants, not the "journalist") come up with their "estimate". In addition, as I said above (and have said in earlier posts as well) their conclusion is contradictory to the Census Bureau numbers.

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SpaceCity

SpaceCity

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Simmer down pal.

Dallas could have 10 million people or 10 people. It doesn't affect Houston. I was just happy for the North Texas area.

I expect that they counted people properly in this study. I personally don't need to review the statistical analysis of the study to realize that its a "ballpark" figure. Like the census -- its an estimate. No system is perfect. Don't get bent out of shape over it.

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Houston19514

Houston19514

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Posted
:o You are such an instigator!

Okay, why do I get called out for responding to posts calling me defensive and saying my posts are just sour grapes? What ever happened to a discussion where people actually respond to, question, challenge, rather than JUST throwing barbs. Is it too much to ask people to actually read and understand posts, so that they might intelligently question, or agree with conclusions reached? Why are we so afraid of a fact-based discussion. All I did was question the conclusions reached in a "study". I discussed at great length my reasons for doubting the conclusions, and nobody, not one person, has bothered to actually read and understand the analsyis and tell me where it is right or wrong. Instead I get attack, attack, attack.

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Houston19514

Houston19514

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Simmer down pal.

Dallas could have 10 million people or 10 people. It doesn't affect Houston. I was just happy for the North Texas area.

I expect that they counted people properly in this study. I personally don't need to review the statistical analysis of the study to realize that its a "ballpark" figure. Like the census -- its an estimate. No system is perfect. Don't get bent out of shape over it.

I would suggest you not get bent out of shape when somebody presents reasons for questioning the accuracy of a study. I am not, after all, the one who came into the room and started throwing out accusations "sour grape" postings, of being defensive about Dallas-Fort Worth's growth and not being able to appropriately "swallow" the "fact" that D-FW maybe, might, could possibly, have a population of 6,000,000 people.

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tw2ntyse7en

tw2ntyse7en

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Posted

Well, You and I have had intense arguements before, and I've noticed that you have a habit of throwing those one-liners in there that kinda sting, and generally illicit a provoked response.

Your rebuttal would have been perfect had you just left that one line out. You've got to think of this place as an on going debate. Sometimes I have to re-read my post previews 3 times to make sure I didn't "slap" anyone verbally, but stuck to the topic. I even find myself clicking "edit" as soon as my entry posts sometimes too.

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2112

2112

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This represents a fundamental insecurity of our city. Just because the Dallas area is growing we feel threatened.

The story did not say that Houston was NOT the fourth largest city. The story did not mention Houston. It simply said that the North Texas region is 6 million and growing. IT DOES NOT AFFECT HOUSTON AT ALL.

It

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2112

2112

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Posted
Okay, why do I get called out for responding to posts calling me defensive and saying my posts are just sour grapes?  What ever happened to a discussion where people actually respond to, question, challenge, rather than JUST throwing barbs.  Is it too much to ask people to actually read and understand posts, so that they might intelligently question, or agree with conclusions reached?  Why are we so afraid of a fact-based discussion.  All I did was question the conclusions reached in a "study".  I discussed  at great length my reasons for doubting the conclusions, and nobody, not one person, has bothered to actually read and understand the analsyis and tell me where it is right or wrong.  Instead I get attack, attack, attack.

I, for one, appreciate your industry for such endowed research. It takes the rivalry to a new and almost academic level. It makes it more

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