Phases 3 And 4 Of Shadow Creek Ranch

[Timnwendy]

I've been tracking developments in phases 3 and 4 (western side) of Shadowcreek Ranch for about 2 years now, as I hunted for a home. Based on what I've observed and on various ancedotal evidence I've read, I believe these final phases of SCR are in a real state of lethargy.

It's kind of strange because the developers are still putting in the infrastructure (parks, roads, brick walls), but not that many new homes are being built. And some builders are cutting back. For example, 6 months ago I was talking to a Newmark sales agent in the Arbor Lakes subdivision. She said things were fine, but I hadn't seen any new lots sold in about 3 months. Now last weekend I drive through Arbor Lakes and I see Newmark has sold all their lots to Ryland. Guess things weren't going so great after all.

It also looks like some of the other new sections: Copper Creek, Windy Shores, West Haven, Lake Meadows are seeing very slow lot sales.

Anyone else have any observations or comments about these final phases of Shadowcreek?

[Houston456]

Well, I am quite sure that SCR is badly hit by the Landfill issue and galore of forclosures.

I know of 3 people, who have either backed-out or changed their mind about building in SCR. Someone who does his/her own research can easily see that west of SCR is kissing the proposed landifll and would not want live next to it.

I drove around some plots on the WEST OF KINGSLEY during October 2006 and also on last month. I was not shocked to see that not much houses have been built during this one year period.

[neonurse97]

Well, I am quite sure that SCR is badly hit by the Landfill issue and galore of forclosures.

I know of 3 people, who have either backed-out or changed their mind about building in SCR. Someone who does his/her own research can easily see that west of SCR is kissing the proposed landifll and would not want live next to it.

I drove around some plots on the WEST OF KINGSLEY during October 2006 and also on last month. I was not shocked to see that not much houses have been built during this one year period.

I'm not surprised that sales have slowed due to the landfill issue but I'm surprised at the amount of foreclosures in the area. Sad.

[njvisitor]

I've noticed this as well when we were looking at homes in SCR.

I believe that the physical location and type of market is to blame. That area is the least favorable in terms of distance from both 288/518 and the central amneties of SCR (big lakes, main community centers). Couple that with all the trouble within the sub-prime market (many of the homes in that area would likely be financed by sub-prime lenders), and you get a decline in the western section. It's important to note that this decline is not as widespread as one would imagine; there are certain sub-divisions within the SCR / Southern Trails area that are really turning properties.

I imagine that the western end will soon be filled, given the rapid retail expansion that's currently taking place on 518. I suppose it's only a matter of time...

[Houston456]

there are certain sub-divisions within the SCR area that are really turning properties.

Do not want to go off-topic, but curous to know what are those sub-divisions ?

[Timnwendy]

Do not want to go off-topic, but curous to know what are those sub-divisions ?

That wouldn't be off topic. I'd like to know too. I wonder if it could be related to foreclosure sales, I have heard there are more of those in SCR now, and some very nice homes are going.

[BWSchultz]

Just a couple stats from my little corner of SCR, Brookglen. My wife and I moved into our house in May 2006 as the 13th of about 72 homes. Right now, there are about 35 homes built or lots sold. So that's about 22 sales in 18 months. I'm sure that is much slower than they'd like. Especially when Perry in the adjacent subdivision is at about 75/110 homes built right now. Granted, Perry keeps a larger inventory but the homes are ready to move in now and that seems to be a priority for Perry. For me, I just like to see homes spring up. I still don't have a neighbor to my right, despite the lot being bigger than average for no premium. There have about 10 consecutive homes built with smaller lots. Someone please build next to me! It doesn't makes sense!

[Houston456]

Just a couple stats from my little corner of SCR, Brookglen. My wife and I moved into our house in May 2006 as the 13th of about 72 homes. Right now, there are about 35 homes built or lots sold. So that's about 22 sales in 18 months. I'm sure that is much slower than they'd like. Especially when Perry in the adjacent subdivision is at about 75/110 homes built right now. Granted, Perry keeps a larger inventory but the homes are ready to move in now and that seems to be a priority for Perry. For me, I just like to see homes spring up. I still don't have a neighbor to my right, despite the lot being bigger than average for no premium. There have about 10 consecutive homes built with smaller lots. Someone please build next to me! It doesn't makes sense!

We were watching BrookGlen for sometime and there is something intresting. RYLAND had a 1.5 story inventory home (lake view) on White falls drive listed for 345K last January. We saw (in their HoustonChornicle ad) the same house listed for 273K few months before. That is a PURE 20% markdown. That is the day I confirmed Houston market is weakening. (It appears that house is sold now).

[BWSchultz]

We were watching BrookGlen for sometime and there is something intresting. RYLAND had a 1.5 story inventory home (lake view) on White falls drive listed for 345K last January. We saw (in their HoustonChornicle ad) the same house listed for 273K few months before. That is a PURE 20% markdown. That is the day I confirmed Houston market is weakening. (It appears that house is sold now).

Oh, I know that house. I even met the couple before they backed out because of the landfill. (They moved to the other end of SCR). Personally, I found the house to be rather ugly (and that's saying something for the burbs where everything is made out of ticky-tacky and we all look just the same). It was white brick and had not-so-nice prego floors almost everywhere. And then black appliances with black countertops. To each their own but man, just not my style at all.

Another house sold on White Falls for about 20% off new. I think that one was the first person who sold after moving in to the house. I would guess there have at least 8 dropouts before closing day in the last year. Some because of money, most because of landfill. If I knew about the landfill before I bought, I obviously would not have. That said, I know SCR is going to recover just fine because of the massive retail developments along 288. Much of that will be up and running by next summer along 518.

[Trae]

We were watching BrookGlen for sometime and there is something intresting. RYLAND had a 1.5 story inventory home (lake view) on White falls drive listed for 345K last January. We saw (in their HoustonChornicle ad) the same house listed for 273K few months before. That is a PURE 20% markdown. That is the day I confirmed Houston market is weakening. (It appears that house is sold now).

Houston's market isn't weakning though. Home prices have reason by almost 3% over the past year. We were ahead of DFW, but behind San Antonio and Austin. Atlanta is a market that is weakening as home prices have fallen there.

My uncle and his family were going to move into SCR, but the landfill is the reason why they decided not to. They live in Pearland, but further south on 288. I don't remember what neighborhood it is, but it is close to Highway 6.

[HoustonRealtor]

Houston456 and BWShultz, I assume this is the house that you referring to. If so, it sold for $260,601 in August.

[Trae]

That white brick is ugly to me, but some like it.

[BWSchultz]

That white brick is ugly to me, but some like it.

Yeah, some love it. The couple who built it are from Miami. Maybe white brick is more popular there? There's another home now in Brookglen on the lake that almost looks orange to me. I'm cool with some homes that look a little different. Gotta spice up the neighborhood.

[hbcu]

could be overspeculation I guess.............I remember that Rodeo Palms neighborhood claiming to be an upscale development but all I remember when it was built was a few overpriced homes and tons of lots....I guess when their bubble burst, the developers realized that wasn't going to happen so they sell the remaining lots to Ryland or so...

I grew up across the tracks further down 2234 in an area where the homes were built solidly....you could get an older home, spend less money updating it with a larger lot and better highway access for way less....

eventually, I see that happening as some of those 245K homes aren't worth the investment..

[Timnwendy]

Yeah, some love it. The couple who built it are from Miami. Maybe white brick is more popular there? There's another home now in Brookglen on the lake that almost looks orange to me. I'm cool with some homes that look a little different. Gotta spice up the neighborhood.

I'm not a huge fan of white brick, but I think it looks better when white color mortar is used with it, instead of the standard grey color mortar. Just my opinion.

[Houston456]

Yep. This is the one. Thanks for the pricing info.

We talked to the sales rep about building SAME floorplan there (lake view too) on last October and after all their INCENTIVES/whatever sales rep offered 295K. NOT A PENNY LESS.

At that time we were unaware of the landfill or its expansion. Glad that she did not offer $260,601

Houston456 and BWShultz, I assume this is the house that you referring to. If so, it sold for $260,601 in August.

[Timnwendy]

We drove through western SCR again recently, and noticed that not much has changed. I am thinking that the combination of the economy, credit-crunch, and that landfill are still dragging down the growth of this last section of the MPR.

[Trae]

Shadow Creek Ranch feels like one of those big foreclosure areas. Nothing like South Katy or Cypress north of FM 529.

[20thStDad]

You think there will be a lot of foreclosures even with the low prices down there? I feel sorry for my sister, who built down there 2 years ago and now is moving back to LA. So far it's been very slow on the sales front, I guess people don't see a reason to buy when you can build to your preferences so easily.

[Timnwendy]

Shadow Creek Ranch feels like one of those big foreclosure areas. Nothing like South Katy or Cypress north of FM 529.

I can't say I agree with that statement, but I respect your opinion.

The eastern portion of SCR (phases 1 and 2) is fine, some might even say thriving. SCR doesn't have a monopoly on homes going into foreclosure, it's everywhere.

What is eeriely noticeable is the contrast and difference between the eastern portion and the western portion of SCR. It seems to become noticeable soon after you drive west of Kingsley Drive. The scenery (while still nice) becomes more sparse, then finally downright empty. And a lack of many start-up sites tells the tale. Yet there are some, here and there. Perry seems to be building in Copper Creek, but whether those are sold already or just inventory, I don't know.

[Chamo]

I can't say I agree with that statement, but I respect your opinion.

The eastern portion of SCR (phases 1 and 2) is fine, some might even say thriving. SCR doesn't have a monopoly on homes going into foreclosure, it's everywhere.

What is eeriely noticeable is the contrast and difference between the eastern portion and the western portion of SCR. It seems to become noticeable soon after you drive west of Kingsley Drive. The scenery (while still nice) becomes more sparse, then finally downright empty. And a lack of many start-up sites tells the tale. Yet there are some, here and there. Perry seems to be building in Copper Creek, but whether those are sold already or just inventory, I don't know.

I think the Landfill issue + the state of the housing market and economy has affected SCR quite a bit. My section (Heron Bay) on SCR Phase 1 is on the eastern side and it is still taking quite a bit for them to close it out (I think it will be around to end 09 - since they still have around 20% of the lots available). I see a similar situation with The Gables an area being developed since 04.

Of course the newer phases 3&4 are suffering even more. But I agree with you, the rate of foreclosures in SCR seems average to the rest of the city. I really feel it for people trying to move out of SCR and that have their houses for sell in this tough market.

[bsienk]

I can't say I agree with that statement, but I respect your opinion.

The eastern portion of SCR (phases 1 and 2) is fine, some might even say thriving. SCR doesn't have a monopoly on homes going into foreclosure, it's everywhere.

What is eeriely noticeable is the contrast and difference between the eastern portion and the western portion of SCR. It seems to become noticeable soon after you drive west of Kingsley Drive. The scenery (while still nice) becomes more sparse, then finally downright empty. And a lack of many start-up sites tells the tale. Yet there are some, here and there. Perry seems to be building in Copper Creek, but whether those are sold already or just inventory, I don't know.

For what it's worth, there are two houses under construction here in Creekside Meadow, and I'm told another will start soon on a lot that has a "Sold" sign just down the street from me. I can look out my back window and see a house under construction in Meadow Trails East, and when I am on my way out to Kingsley, I can see another one being built in Regents Glen. These are all areas neighborhoods that adjoin Kingsley, close to Shadow Creek Parkway and probably as far from the landfill as some parts of Southern Trails. It's definitely a lot slower than last year, but there's still some activity. I don't see any foreclosure signs here, and I probably would notice them when I'm out walking my dogs.

I might add that Deerwood has recognized that the low end of the market has shrunk. When we moved here a year ago, the signs for Creekside Meadow said "from the $160,000s". Now the signs say "from the $200,000". Features that used to be "upgrades" are now "standard," the price-point is aimed higher, and the homes being built are the larger floor plans.

[hbcu]

I can buy an older house with a larger lot 4 miles up the road for way less money....that's the difference now...

[Trae]

Yeah, home builders are starting from about $190,000 on up now around the suburbs. Those homes seem to be selling better than the KB Homes at $150,000.

[westguy76]

Shadow Creek Ranch feels like one of those big foreclosure areas. Nothing like South Katy or Cypress north of FM 529.

looking at the forclosure map you must mean North Katy (or actual Katy, not the South Katy area. The area between 1-10 and 1093 seems to be doing better than the north side of 1-10 or south of 1093. In fact there are bigger problems in the Sienna/missouri city area.

[miner92]

Newmark is owned by TOUSA which filed for bankruptcy back in January. This is likely the reason for all of the lots within Shadow Creek selling to Ryland.

I've been tracking developments in phases 3 and 4 (western side) of Shadowcreek Ranch for about 2 years now, as I hunted for a home. Based on what I've observed and on various ancedotal evidence I've read, I believe these final phases of SCR are in a real state of lethargy.

It's kind of strange because the developers are still putting in the infrastructure (parks, roads, brick walls), but not that many new homes are being built. And some builders are cutting back. For example, 6 months ago I was talking to a Newmark sales agent in the Arbor Lakes subdivision. She said things were fine, but I hadn't seen any new lots sold in about 3 months. Now last weekend I drive through Arbor Lakes and I see Newmark has sold all their lots to Ryland. Guess things weren't going so great after all.

It also looks like some of the other new sections: Copper Creek, Windy Shores, West Haven, Lake Meadows are seeing very slow lot sales.

Anyone else have any observations or comments about these final phases of Shadowcreek?

[Trae]

looking at the forclosure map you must mean North Katy (or actual Katy, not the South Katy area. The area between 1-10 and 1093 seems to be doing better than the north side of 1-10 or south of 1093. In fact there are bigger problems in the Sienna/missouri city area.

I think you might have misunderstood what I wrote, but looks like SCR foreclosures are not as bad as I thought.

[Timnwendy]

I took a drive through some of the phase 3 & 4 subdivisions this past weekend, and there are signs of new life.

Pelican shores had quite a bit of new 'sold' signs as well as startups. The builders appeared to be Meritage and Westin. Eden Cove showed life too, with several noticeable startups. Arbor Lakes seemed to have the least activity, but it did have some. It looks like Ryland sold some of the lots they bought from Newmark in Arbor Lakes to Westin, although it didn't look like Westin had sold many yet.

I guess the lower interest rates and builder incentives are starting to bring out some buyers. I just wonder how many of those buyers have done their homework about the area.

[dizzyedge]

I took a drive through some of the phase 3 & 4 subdivisions this past weekend, and there are signs of new life.

Pelican shores had quite a bit of new 'sold' signs as well as startups. The builders appeared to be Meritage and Westin. Eden Cove showed life too, with several noticeable startups. Arbor Lakes seemed to have the least activity, but it did have some. It looks like Ryland sold some of the lots they bought from Newmark in Arbor Lakes to Westin, although it didn't look like Westin had sold many yet.

I guess the lower interest rates and builder incentives are starting to bring out some buyers. I just wonder how many of those buyers have done their homework about the area.

Even my realtor didn't do her homework before showing me homes in Eden Cove recently.

Perry has some real nice homes with great floorplans with big incentives in Eden Cove. The only thing that stopped me was the dump..oh yea..and the schools.

[Timnwendy]

I was out for a drive yesterday and decided to check the status of western SCR. I honestly didn't see much signs of change since my last check in April. Eden Cove had very few start-ups since those I saw then. Even stranger, the many empty lots did not have AVAILABLE or SOLD signs in them. I am not sure what Perry is up to here.

Pelican shores didn't look much different than April, but there were a few more startups going on. At least Meritage had signs in the empty lots.

Arbor Lakes had the most growth of the three. Interestingly, it looks like Ryland has sold all the lots they had bought from Newmark to Westin. I only saw Westin signs up on the empty lots there. There were a few startups too. Still plenty of empty lots.

Azalea Creek shows very little signs of continuing its infrastructure, other than that lovely brick wall. I wonder if Newmark has pulled out of it completely.

Edgewater and Westhaven looked like they have had decent growth. I saw most of the homes there were smaller, though. As these sections border 521 (and the adjacent landfill), I am again left wondering why people would build here without doing their homework. I'm sure they are getting great incentives, but when things look too good to be true, they often are. Oh well, to each their own. I wish them well.