2007-2008 Crude Oil Cost

[Pumapayam]

Who all else is sick and tired of oil jumping up and down each day based off of supposedly "critical" information. I have never seen anything so unstable.

1. Even though nothing happened between Iran and the US during the British Navy being kidnapped, supposed fears of war made the cost per barrel go up.
   
2. If we have lots of reserves, but the demand is the same, the cost goes down.
   
3. It there is a riot in Nigeria, the price goes up
   
4. If things are going well in the middle east the cost goes down.
   
5. If a hurricane is in the Gulf of Mexico, the cost goes up; that same hurricane misses the rig, the costs goes down, yet no damage happened to begin with.
   

The list goes on.

I can accept increased cost due to demand, line breakage, refineries offline, and ACTUAL storm damage, but all the other stuff in between, is just wack.

[RedScare]

So, you started a new thread JUST so you could show everyone your ignorance of the oil markets?

Wow.

In the old days, we tried to hide our ignorance, not advertise it.

[TheNiche]

A simple example: a hurricane in the Gulf might hit anywhere between Corpus Christi, the Houston area, and Beaumont. Assume trucks are too busy hauling in bottled water, generators, and other emergency supplies to haul plywood, meaning that each city has insufficient plywood to meet consumer demand. What do you expect will happen to plywood prices in each city at present? As the hurricane nears land and the forecasted track becomes more certain, what do you think will happen to plywood prices in various cities as some become more likely to get hit and other cities become less likely to be affected? If it hits Beaumont, does that mean that volatility in Corpus Christi's plywood prices was unjustified even back when it might have hit Corpus?

Commodity markets are founded upon expectations. Introduce risk and uncertainty, and markets will constantly adjust according to investors' changing expectations.

[Pumapayam]

So, you started a new thread JUST so you could show everyone your ignorance of the oil markets?

Wow.

In the old days, we tried to hide our ignorance, not advertise it.

This thread is really to rant and rave about how ludicrous the oil market is with their price fluctuations and the supposed reasons for them.

Most of which should not even effect the cost per barrel.

As the hurricane nears land and the forecasted track becomes more certain, what do you think will happen to plywood prices in various cities as some become more likely to get hit and other cities become less likely to be affected?

I believe during Rita, the price of plywood remained the same, which is why they sold out as fast as they did.

Only gasoline was artificially inflated during Rita.

[TheNiche]

This thread is really to rant and rave about how ludicrous the oil market is with their price fluctuations and the supposed reasons for them.

Most of which should not even effect the cost per barrel.

We understand the supposed reasons for having this thread. But they're not justifiable.

I believe during Rita, the price of plywood remained the same, which is why they sold out as fast as they did.

Only gasoline was artificially inflated during Rita.

If plywood prices remained the same (which would surprise me in all cases except for Home Depot & Lowe's, which have to worry about a political backlash from uneducated politicians or smart ones pandering to uneducated voters), then THAT is a problem because it leads to inefficient rationing.

As for gasoline, you are correct that there was inefficient pricing in many places--most clearly that was the case where stations ran out of gasoline. The prices in those areas should've been higher. Additionally, individuals should've been permitted to sell gasoline on the roadside at whatever prices could've been obtained.

Please provide evidence (if you have it) that gasoline prices were artificially high, for instance as a result of collusion. Otherwise, please state that you have none.

[Pumapayam]

We understand the supposed reasons for having this thread. But they're not justifiable.

Okay, what in the world did the recent event with the British Navy being capture by Iran have anything to do with energy. Were supplies distrupted, oil rigs damaged, were refinery employees so worried that they could not work?

Something that was political should have never effect the energy market.

Especially when output remain constant and no changes to oil production occured, just lame fears.

[TJones]

Puma, you apparently didn't buy any plywood during Rita. It went to $21 for a 1/2in. sheet out in KATY.

[Pumapayam]

Please provide evidence (if you have it) that gasoline prices were artificially high, for instance as a result of collusion. Otherwise, please state that you have none.

In Houston, I did not see it, but I remember in the news talking about $5 gas, and maybe higher gas prices after Sept 11th and Katrina.

[VicMan]

Puma, oil is in bed with politics. I believe it is so much intertwined with politics that politics shops for all of oil's clothes now

The "Energy Crisis" in the 1970s had everything to do with politics, for instance. Fear of disrupted oil supplies (I.E. the confrontation with Iran, which is an oil producing state and a member of OPEC) drives prices up.

Okay, what in the world did the recent event with the British Navy being capture by Iran have anything to do with energy. Were supplies distrupted, oil rigs damaged, were refinery employees so worried that they could not work?

Something that was political should have never effect the energy market.

Especially when output remain constant and no changes to oil production occured, just lame fears.

[TJones]

Puma, you need to stop while you are behind. Gas has never been @ $5.00 a gallon, it probably won't get there either for another 10 years. You will soon see your corn on the shelves going for a much higher price though, and the cost of feed go up, and the cost of milk that is made from that feed. Everything is relative.

[TheNiche]

Okay, what in the world did the recent event with the British Navy being capture by Iran have anything to do with energy. Were supplies distrupted, oil rigs damaged, were refinery employees so worried that they could not work?

Something that was political should have never effect the energy market.

Especially when output remain constant and no changes to oil production occured, just lame fears.

Iran increased the global exposure to war risk. In order to curtail present demand for oil, thus increasing inventories and creating an incentive to increase production in anticipation of a possible supply disruption, prices went up. The function of speculation is to smooth out changes in consumption and production wherever shocks to supply or demand can be anticipated.

Energy-related commodities are particularly volatile compared to other commodities (especially luxury goods) because they are demand inelastic and supply inelastic in the short term. That is to say, people typically do not change their driving habits or make investments in energy-efficient housing and vehicles overnight if gas prices go up by even a fairly significant amount; lifestyle changes take time. Likewise, producers are incapable of increasing production greatly in the very short term in response to price changes. As a result, the price has to change to a much greater degree to effect the smoothing of consumption/production.

Higher prices resulting from concerns over shocks to the market result in significant increases in inventory and production. If those fears are unfounded, then prices will drop below the level that they otherwise would have been so as to clear the excess inventory and the new flow of supply. This process can happen pretty quickly. Long term, it tends to average out--however, because energy is a capital-intensive industry with huge startup costs and relatively low (although not insignificant) operating costs, the long term effects of a series of anticipated but unrealized supply disruptions coupled with gradual improvements in energy efficiency throughout the economy can ultimately result in extremely low energy prices for very long periods of time.

[musicman]

Puma, you need to stop while you are behind.

his mind is probably occupied making his "daily donation" as he called it.

[TheNiche]

Gas has never been @ $5.00 a gallon.

Nope, there were a few scattered stations following Katrina/Rita where the owners priced it ridiculously high. One was in Atlanta, as I recall. However, I seriously doubt that they were getting much business. Certainly, the average market price has never gotten that high.

[TJones]

There is a great movie called "The Last Chase", NOT the Charlie Sheen craparama "The Chase" filmed here in Houston, this one stars Burgess Meredith and Lee Majors. It's about a retied race car driver in a world where no PRIVATE motor vehicles are allowed anymore, and Lee goes out for one more run in his old Can Am racer. A definate B-Flick, but not bad for 1981, here's a link : http://us.imdb.com/title/tt0082642/plotsummary

Puma, I actually understand why you started this ranting thread, I would love to be back at $2.00 a gallon, or even back to $0.77 like back in 1987, until enough people have had enough, and get there congressman involved, nothing will change.

Now, you got Russia making an AK-47 plant in Venenzuela for Chavez, you got Iranians running the petroleum plants that Chavez just took over. The first thing we as a people need to do is stop buying Valero and Citgo gas instantly, NO MORE STOP AND GO people, you are giving Chavez your money to buy Russian armament. If everyone stopped buying by at least HALF from these stores, it would force Chavez to lower the gas price , staggering the rest of those greedy, excuse me, capitalist oil companies.

[VicMan]

As a reply, TJones, that won't help. The oil industry is too incestuous.

This Snopes article explains why - Please read it: http://www.snopes.com/politics/gasoline/citgo.asp

"Many different oil companies buy crude oil from Venezuela, so even Americans who shun CITGO brand gasoline have no guarantee that they aren't still sending money to that country."

There is a great movie called "The Last Chase", NOT the Charlie Sheen craparama "The Chase" filmed here in Houston, this one stars Burgess Meredith and Lee Majors. It's about a retied race car driver in a world where no PRIVATE motor vehicles are allowed anymore, and Lee goes out for one more run in his old Can Am racer. A definate B-Flick, but not bad for 1981, here's a link : http://us.imdb.com/title/tt0082642/plotsummary

Puma, I actually understand why you started this ranting thread, I would love to be back at $2.00 a gallon, or even back to $0.77 like back in 1987, until enough people have had enough, and get there congressman involved, nothing will change.

Now, you got Russia making an AK-47 plant in Venenzuela for Chavez, you got Iranians running the petroleum plants that Chavez just took over. The first thing we as a people need to do is stop buying Valero and Citgo gas instantly, NO MORE STOP AND GO people, you are giving Chavez your money to buy Russian armament. If everyone stopped buying by at least HALF from these stores, it would force Chavez to lower the gas price , staggering the rest of those greedy, excuse me, capitalist oil companies.

[VicMan]

Also, check this out: http://www.snopes.com/politics/gasoline/gasout.asp

"Economics Prof. Pat Welch of St. Louis University says any boycott of "bad guy" gasoline in favor of "good guy" brands would have some unintended (and unhappy) results."

And: "The only way of reducing gasoline prices is through the straightforward means of buying less gasoline, not a simple and painless scheme of just shifting where we buy it. The inconvenience of driving less is a hardship too many people apparently aren't willing to endure, however."

[TJones]

The thing is Vic, you gotta start somewhere, and if you KNOW where your money is going, doesn't it make it that much easier to say NO! ???

[Pumapayam]

The thing is Vic, you gotta start somewhere, and if you KNOW where your money is going, doesn't it make it that much easier to say NO! ???

I laugh when anyone suggests it, you only hurt the convenience store owner, because everyone will just buy the gas the day before or the day after.

I am all for using less, but in the mean time, if we have plenty, there is no reason for $60 barrel oil $3 gas/gallon.

I know other countries have it worse than us, even now, but Venezuela still pays only like $0.40 a gallon.

We should have something in the middle.

I'd be happy with a $1.50 again, realistically, maybe $2.00, but not $2.50 or $3.00.

[VicMan]

I also found this: http://www.snopes.com/politics/gasoline/saudigas.asp

This was last updated on March 16, 2005. I.E. it is somewhat outdated. Yet, it is still useful to explaining more about the oil industry.

Also, it points out that, even if the USA suddenly stopped taking OPEC oil, there are other countries, such as Japan, that take OPEC oil.

[VicMan]

Actually, I wasn't talking about shifting when to buy gas (I.E. that "boycott") - I was talking about cutting gas consumption, period. (Ride METRO, walk, ride a bike, press your leaders for heavy rail and light rail, et al).

I laugh when anyone suggests it, you only hurt the convenience store owner, because everyone will just buy the gas the day before or the day after.

I am all for using less, but in the mean time, if we have plenty, there is no reason for $60 barrel oil $3 gas/gallon.

I know other countries have it worse than us, even now, but Venezuela still pays only like $0.40 a gallon.

We should have something in the middle.

I'd be happy with a $1.50 again, realistically, maybe $2.00, but not $2.50 or $3.00.

According to this: http://www.snopes.com/politics/gasoline/saudigas.asp - There is no way to know EXACTLY where oil comes from - I.E. Snopes states that some Russian middlemen sold Iraq oil. Again, the best way to solve this is to cut consumption, period.

The thing is Vic, you gotta start somewhere, and if you KNOW where your money is going, doesn't it make it that much easier to say NO! ???

Also, guys, if anyone tells you that you can influence prices if you consume the same amount of gasoline but buy only a few gallons at a time, that is false as well: http://www.snopes.com/politics/gasoline/eggs.asp

Also, this 2005 article ( http://www.snopes.com/politics/gasoline/hess.asp ) states that Hess does not buy Middle Eastern oil, but that has nothing to do with the fact that Hess was founded by a Jewish man: this was simply because Hess had no exploration facilities there. Remember, though, that:

* The article is outdated, as it was last published in 2005

* Hess does not have a contract stating that it cannot buy Middle Eastern gas

* If too many people patronized Hess, Hess would either have to raise prices or buy gas from oil companies that drill in the Middle East (referring to other articles)

Again, reduce consumption if you wish to stop sending money to Venezuela or the Middle East.

The moral of the story is that one must reduce the consumption of gasoline, period.

[TJones]

I am not talking about GAS CONSUMPTION at all ! ! ! I am talking about WHERE you buy your gas. By all means, by all the gas you need, buy all the Ethanol you need, just don't buy from stores owned by the Venezuelan Govt.

EDIT: I want to look a little further into the Valero thing. I am 100% sure that Citgo is owned by Venezuela, but I am questioning myself on Valero, as I think they may be a Texas Co. and I am mixing up my knowledge.

[TheNiche]

...in the mean time, if we have plenty, there is no reason for $60 barrel oil $3 gas/gallon.

Yes there is. Read post #11. If you have questions or counterpoints, I'll try to answer them.

[TJones]

Yes there is. Read post #11. If you have questions or counterpoints, I'll try to answer them.

Niche, how dare you bring LOGIC into this discussion, You must be stopped !

[VicMan]

I am not talking about GAS CONSUMPTION at all ! ! ! I am talking about WHERE you buy your gas. By all means, by all the gas you need, buy all the Ethanol you need, just don't buy from stores owned by the Venezuelan Govt.

At the very least, perhaps our Government should seize control of ALL 14 refineries owned by Valero, and those owned by Citgo and distribute them out to Conoco and Chevron and Exxon, since they lost their refineries in Venezuela ?

Yes, but if Citgo is boycotted completely (this hasn't happened), then Citgo will have unsold gasoline while the other outlets have increased demand. Citgo would find other buyers easily (including other gasoline suppliers).

Remember that a boycott of one gas supplier will only accomplish symbolic goals, and not practical goals.

[TheNiche]

I am not talking about GAS CONSUMPTION at all ! ! ! I am talking about WHERE you buy your gas. By all means, by all the gas you need, buy all the Ethanol you need, just don't buy from stores owned by the Venezuelan Govt.

At the very least, perhaps our Government should seize control of ALL 14 refineries owned by Valero, and those owned by Citgo and distribute them out to Conoco and Chevron and Exxon, since they lost their refineries in Venezuela ?

Valero (VLO) is based in San Antonio. It is owned by anyone willing to buy shares on the New York Stock Exchange.

Also, most cities have a single or very few gasoline depots, connected at a hub of products pipelines, and owned by one corporation or another (usually not a corporation that is also a refiner). The pipelines tend to send batches from different refineries, and each batch of the same refined product gets mixed together in storage before being distributed by truck to gas stations that are owned primarily by U.S. citizens...yes, U.S. citizens own the Citgo stations.

Vic is correct. The entire oil industry is incestuous and the only way to hurt Venezuala is to not buy gasoline (or for that matter, use any goods or services made possible as a result of refined hydrocarbons). That is to say, unless you join a commune, you can't. ...and if you DO join a commune, perhaps you'd be a better pawn of socialism by helping Venezuala and using oil-based products. I'm not sure. The whole discussion is screwy.

[VicMan]

It is possible to reduce consumption, though. I found that people drive unneeded miles.

* Drive to the local library? Take a 15-minute walk instead

* Drive to an establishment along a bus or train route? Take the bus or train.

* If there is heat, put on deodorant, carry a drink, use sunscreen, wear sunglasses, and carry an umbrella

* If you are traveling to either Houston airport with little luggage, find a way to take the METRO express buses.

* Press your representatives to develop train routes so that driving is not as necessary in Houston

Valero (VLO) is based in San Antonio. It is owned by anyone willing to buy shares on the New York Stock Exchange.

Also, most cities have a single or very few gasoline depots, connected at a hub of products pipelines, and owned by one corporation or another (usually not a corporation that is also a refiner). The pipelines tend to send batches from different refineries, and each batch of the same refined product gets mixed together in storage before being distributed by truck to gas stations that are owned primarily by U.S. citizens...yes, U.S. citizens own the Citgo stations.

Vic is correct. The entire oil industry is incestuous and the only way to hurt Venezuala is to not buy gasoline (or for that matter, use any goods or services made possible as a result of refined hydrocarbons). That is to say, unless you join a commune, you can't. ...and if you DO join a commune, perhaps you'd be a better pawn of socialism by helping Venezuala and using oil-based products. I'm not sure. The whole discussion is screwy.

[Pumapayam]

Niche, how dare you bring LOGIC into this discussion, You must be stopped !

The only LOGIC I see is that pretty much during Bush's presidential term, gas has been high, and, like this past election, gas gets really cheap just before voting time in early November, and even though gas at that time was in the lower to mid $60 per barrel, gas was around $2.00 to $2.20, that makes no sense. They only do that so that people can forget that the Republicans are greedy.

[VicMan]

Even if there was gouging, Pump, reducing your consumption will force the companies to lower gas prices anyway when they find that less gas is being sold.

Also, kids, use carpooling, or, if you go to school, try to take the school district transportation. Also METRO operates bus services to several high schools in the area.

* By the way, my parents often drove me to school (and in the second semester of grade 11, I started driving to school) - So, I did NOT follow the advice given in this sentence.

The only LOGIC I see is that pretty much during Bush's presidential term, gas has been high, and, like this past election, gas gets really cheap just before voting time in early November, and even though gas at that time was in the lower to mid $60 per barrel, gas was around $2.00 to $2.20, that makes no sense. They only do that so that people can forget that the Republicans are greedy.

[TheNiche]

The moral of the story is that one must reduce the consumption of gasoline, period.

No, that's not the moral of the story. If I can find a way to become wealthier, I'll probably increase my use of gasoline (and other goods and services that use oil-based products). And I'll be happier for it, because...

Remember that a boycott of one gas supplier will only accomplish symbolic goals, and not practical goals.

...I have no symbolic goals based in principle...

It is possible to reduce consumption, though. I found that people drive unneeded miles.

* Drive to the local library? Take a 15-minute walk instead

* Drive to an establishment along a bus or train route? Take the bus or train.

* If there is heat, put on deodorant, carry a drink, use sunscreen, wear sunglasses, and carry an umbrella

* If you are traveling to either Houston airport with little luggage, find a way to take the METRO express buses.

* Press your representatives to develop train routes so that driving is not as necessary in Houston

...and while is is possible to reduce consumption, I'd just rather go to the effort to earn money so that I can afford to spend it being comfortable and lazy. Laziness is the greatest motivator! Strange but true.

[TheNiche]

The only LOGIC I see is that pretty much during Bush's presidential term, gas has been high, and, like this past election, gas gets really cheap just before voting time in early November, and even though gas at that time was in the lower to mid $60 per barrel, gas was around $2.00 to $2.20, that makes no sense. They only do that so that people can forget that the Republicans are greedy.

So you are alledging that there was collusion between all speculators, refiners, and either importers of gasoline or foreign refiners so as to temporarily eliminate competitive forces, which would've required secrecy among literally thousands of individuals and a total rigging of the financial markets (which you admit not to understanding in the first place, and thus might have a difficult time figuring out in the context of a scandal)? Dude, the White House staff itself can't help but leak juicy tidbits to the press. How on earth do you think this one could've been pulled off?

Do you have any non-circumstantial evidence to this effect?