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SkylineView

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Posts posted by SkylineView

  1. Before I completely lose everyone, let me start by saying that I love rail. I lived in the UK for 8 years, and trains were a key part of my formative years.

    That being said...

    Basic economics pretty well 'derail' the Houston-Dallas high speed rail debate. You can fly Hobby-Love or IAH-DFW for about the same price... ~$150 each way. Flight time is a flat hour. The sad reality is that regardless of where rail departs, most Houstonians will be driving there... much like they would to IAH or Hobby... and you'll likely have to drive on the other side. Assuming you show up 45 minutes in advance, and drive 30 minutes on each side, it's a 2:45 commute vs. about 4:30 if you drive it.

    There could be some downtown to downtown commutes, but given the largely decentralized nature of both cities, it is reasonable to consider that people would be adventuring outside the urban core. Consider the jobs hosted in the Woodlands, Memorial City, Greenway, Galleria, Woodlands etc... And in Dallas... Las Colinas, Fort Worth, North Dallas etc...

    Amtrak will get you from one side to the other, though not rapidly. Using their trip planner it looks like 10 to 16 hours and will cost $64. Greyhound will do it in ~4:30 and $44. I'm not a huge fan of riding on busses, but $44 to go 241 miles is obviously the time to beat. Driving my car would probably cost that in gas.

    Referencing this for #'s (it's getting late)... http://www.chron.com/neighborhood/cyfair-news/article/Fast-rail-may-link-Houston-Dallas-in-2020-RAIL-2157909.php

    At $6 billion, a 4% interest rate, and $100 per ticket, the route would require slightly more than three million users a year to repay the loan over a 30 year term. This seems somewhat optimistic. The benefit, though I hate flying, of what Southwest can do, is that they can easily scale capacity up or down. While they may be running flights every 30 minutes out of Hobby, they could ramp it higher or lower on demand. Rail requires such a large fixed cost that regardless of ridership, you're saddled with interest payments on the original investment. Air travel doesn't suffer this. Also, I counted about 30+ flights from Houston to Dallas each day on Expedia, which does not include Southwest, so may 50+ total? We can assume that's at least 5,000 seats. While air and rail do not necessarily overlap (you're less likely to take HSR to Dallas and then fly to Phoenix... that being said, how many people connect through Dallas from Houston?), they will compete for point to point travel. I would guess that Southwest could cut prices if competition increased.

    Finally, a caveat. One thing we should consider is that both Dallas and Houston are forecast to consider to grow over the next 25 years. If both cities add a million a decade, as both Houston and Dallas (ok... almost) did over the past decade, the viability of HSR will increase. A business friendly environment, job growth, and immigration all lean in favor of Texas. If the cities grow by 20%, expand local public transit, and increase high-density development, it's possible HSR will be viable... just not today.

    • Like 2
  2. At the end of the day, this could be a pretty good location. You're half a block from both the Central Market and the Rice Epicurian (God only knows how that place is still around). 35 stories with 250 units is less than 1200 Post Oak, which has 33 stories and 350 units (or more... I can't remember anymore, but it's 300-400). Wesleyan is 2 lanes each way, which should be more than sufficient to handle the traffic. This is an urban location, and while it's busy during rush hour, it's not a total fail. If you're going north on Wesleyan you may sit through 2 lights to cross Westheimer, but that shouldn't preclude additional development.

    The location also has excellent access to Greenway, Highland Village, and whatever you want to call that development with the Buffalo Wild Wings / Panda Express / LA Fitness etc... With the other buildings across the street (8-12 stories) and the ATT abortion down Wesleyan (cement box with a top hat) I think this will be a welcome addition.

  3. Good evening all.

    I drive past this (future) new building every day. They continue to drill what I assume are caissons on the south side of the lot. I'm pleased to see that work has continued north on Post Oak to fix the (god-$#*&ing-aweful) pavement. While they have walled off the site pretty well, there have been pieces of the *future* tower crane on site for about 2 weeks. It appeared today that they had anchored the first piece. While it is too early to say for certain, this would be a big step. Also, this project is more or less neck and neck with the apartment tower at Westheimer and Sage.

    Have a great night.

    • Like 1
  4. Good evening all!

    After trawling this forum for 2 (?) years I'm happy to have something to add. They have now put up a chain-link fence and black semi-transparent material around the entire San Felipe / Post Oak / S Post Oak Blvd Lane site. The fence has been up about a week. There were several fine gentlemen out this afternoon doing various ground level activities with a backhoe. While I am not ready to announce that the site is "under construction", this is a significant step away from the grass field that we have all enjoyed for the last few years.

    I'm looking forward to future growth in the area. Have a great night.

    • Like 2
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