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pacarlson

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Posts posted by pacarlson

  1. 10 hours ago, toxtethogrady said:

    So oil just hit $80 a barrel. Party time again?

    I saw that too.  Not sure yet what impact, if any, this price increase is going to have.  Many company budgets are already set for 2022 with cautious spending programs and project economics based on $55/bbl +/- long term.  Unless the supermajors think this price level is going to hang around for more than 5 years or so, no one is going to want to risk spending megamillions on long term payout projects that only fly at > $55/bbl.  We've been here too many times before and been burned.  Remember, the cure for high oil prices is high oil prices and the cure for low oil prices is low oil prices.

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  2. On 6/4/2021 at 10:11 PM, toxtethogrady said:

    Okey-dokey, oil is pushing $70 a barrel. Is it party time again?

    You'd think, right?  I'm a 39-year reservoir engineer working for a small O&G company.  This current price helps, but it doesn't cause us to celebrate yet.  My personal opinion is that 80 to 85 $/STB will be the break-through price.  But even then, the big question is, will it hold or fold?  Unfortunately, too many of the necessary rigs and service equipment have been stacked and sat unmaintained to corrode beyond use.  Service personnel have mostly gone on to other careers or retired and new bodies can't be hired and trained fast enough to do anything for years.  Even the operating companies laid off too many folks and now aren't staffed to support a substantial and increased capital program.  Plus, with the oil price being so volatile over recent history and many companies having been burned too many times by unstable prices, these companies may be reluctant now to spend tons of capital to ramp up facilities for long-term growth opportunities because these intensive capital projects may not pay out before the next price plummet.  Kids too are reluctant to pursue petroleum engineering and geoscience majors now because of job and hiring risk.  I didn't steer either of my kids into the industry, and thankfully, they pursued other interests as they've both enjoyed steady employment.

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