houston-development

if you or know someone with a cat, dont clean their litter box for a month. afterwards, stick your head in there and take a big wiff. then, throw some clean litter on top and see if it helped. as a side note, i wouldnt be surprised if this deal fell through because the lender balks. wouldnt be the first nor last to back out at the last minute. not saying it is or isnt moving forward. today, nothing surprises me.. having said that, hypothetically if the lender bails, im willing to bet the developer has no recourse and is stuck holding the bag.

i attended a breakfast forecast the other week and the speaker gave a great analogy. our current financial 'crisis' is like a cat litter box that hasnt been cleaned in over a month. all they are doing is tossing some new litter on top, while the excrement is still there. until someone gets their hands dirty and completely cleans the litter box, it will continue to stink and only get worse.

on the bright side, i seriously doubt anything will happen in the near future. if someone did buy the land, it would be a safe assumption they would keep the current structures for cash flow until things turn around. on the flip side, the dickey estate is not in a position where they have to sell. if someone pays their price, no problem. if not, they know over time it will continue to appreciate. edited to add: since someone asked, see the attached marketing flyer. c&w emailed it to me back in nov 08. Kirby__W_Alabama.pdf

its more than just the o'donnell store. totals 5.774 acres: 2.562 A on the north side of steel and 3.182 A that fronts w alabama. brokers are advertising that there is a possibility of abandoning steel and make the site contiguous.

the retail center at the nw corner of kirby and w alabama is currently on the market.

i agree that the views could be amazing, assuming they design appropriately. i strongly suggest if anyone has the time, go to wildcat golf course and check out the potential views... they really are spectacular.

browse additional info here -> http://www.uspshoustonland.com/ direct link to RFP -> http://graphics.grubb-ellis.com/houston/em...P_RiverOaks.pdf as a side note, the OM indicates property was built in '87 edited to add: i removed the flyer. it was taking too long and can be found in the link above.

well, it depends on what information you're looking for. rent/sq ft? building materials? cost basis? keep in mind that some is on a need to know basis and the general public doesnt need to know. i would suggest either calling fingers corporate office or shop the property.

actually talking to people and walking the real estate rather than depending on information from the interwebs? what a novel concept.

glad it wasnt just me. however, hcad is back working again. http://hcad.org/records/details.asp?tab=2&...t=0442220000145 MCBRIDE RANDY DR 4/1/1999 D AND L INVESTMENT CO 1/2/1988 that means they sold woodhead before purchasing gray. i assume they sold woodhead and stayed with a lease, used sale proceeds to close gray, took x-months to build, and then moved in.

hcad shows they purchased w gray on 7/30/1988. the site is stalling for 1314 woodhead, for whatever reason...

congrats and thanks, ed. just curious and nostalgic, what happened to the old forum? i recall it crashing but did the posts survive?

think of it this way: purchased and built for a small fraction of what it could be worth, dont pay property taxes, and states are scattering for cash. again, if they did this a couple of years ago, it would have been a profit windfall. just terrible timing...

gee, what a shocker... / sarcasm this is a great thread with a lot of information and insight, especially in hindsight. anyways, some of the questions: its because the 2nd tower hasnt had time to default and im pretty sure the two towers are in technically different partnerships. glad to see gables came in for management, though. depends on the condo docs and potential title issues. its safe to assume both towers have a legal right to all shared amenities. hypothetically speaking, there could be potential issues down the road. keep in mind that this is a worst case scenario.. for example, another completely unrealted party comes in and purchases one of the towers. say one of the amenities (ie coffee bar, exercise room, etc) are located only inside the other tower. they may attempt to revise legal requirements in which its exclusive only to that tower. again, worst case.. even though worse things could happen but lets not think about that.

its been on the market for a while now (6+ months, at least), along with several other post office sites. i seriously doubt a buyer could perform, with USPS' requirements, in todays market. a year or two ago, some buyer would have bent over backwards to get the deal done. $130 psf, condo-ed out a space for a post office, and still got financing. today, not so much. i would be absolutely shocked if anything happened in the foreseeable future.

the only thing i recall was buying a frog-like stuffed animal for my girlfriend's dog. he proceeded to violate poor kermit and was never to be seen again.

some have asked me about the recent globest.com and ill gladly comment. there are several reasons why i didnt when it came out last week. largely in part that i found it unrealistic, unreliable, and quite frankly, irresponsible. please keep in mind that these are my opinions as of today.. the market could change but i dont think that's likely. 1) there are plenty of properties that can be purchased at a 7.5% cap. problem is, they cant get financed while still achieving their irr (buyers today expect a 20% irr). after you factor in 0% rent growth (which will be addressed later), increased concessions, increased expenses, a 1.3+ debt service ratio, and maximum 75% LTV; the numbers dont work. 2) if they honestly believe employment increasing 13,400, more power to them. personally, i dont see it. i know of layoffs, hiring freezes, and moving people around internally but not one thing about growth. 3) we agree about vacancy increasing but i completely disagree in regards to rent growth. for example, im not aware of any lender that will allow rent growth for the next two years, especially on stabilized properties. additionally, most of the companies ive spoken to anticipate -1 to -2% rent contraction (not including increased concessions). the only exception would possibly be a seriously distressed property, in an established area, that is significantly below comps, and only after renovation. effective rents, including concessions, will probably be decline 10 - 15%, depending on the property. 4) in regards to buyers paying "premiums" for stable returns, again, i dont see it. there very well could be an exception but problem is, theres A LOT of available product. for the most part, every class "a" property that was built within the last year or two is available for purchase. problem is, buyers view the properties are worth (and in some cases, less than) the debt. they are going to cherry pick and wait for distressed opportunities rather than buying a trophy to inflate their ego. those days are gone, for now.. but what do i know.

and i appreciate it, red. is there a group hug emoticon? : group hug : seriously, i wont allow his petty bs to bother me. i stand 100% behind my posts, especially the 2727 kirby thread. in fact, just went back to make sure he wasnt revising history (which he did). my info may not always be 100% accurate but ive never said it was. again, no biggie but appreciated none the less. he's on a very short ignore list (1 of 3, in fact) and pretty positive he's doing this out of frustration: good times.

here's a real life example of what's going on. just got back from shopping a class "a" community, stabilized (93% occupied), 2 years old, and in a prime location (greenway/river oaks). 1) 2 months free 2) $1,000 look and lease 3) 100% locator fee 4) $99 move in effectively, that's almost 4 months free on a 13-month lease. that's not a gimmick... ask any other board members that know the business (niche and tnj come to mind) how bad these concessions are. is it a sign of things to come? no one knows for certain but it aint looking pretty.

going forward, please dont send me his quotes. seriously, please dont. i have him on ignore for a reason and dont want to see his comments anymore. thank you in advance for your coopertion. last time, promise mods. this was just too funny since he brought up misleading dates and continues to lie. funny thing is, the link below proves that hes been trolling me for a while. post from Friday, June 1st, 2007 @ 10:00am discussing HOTEL plans, not retail and then further elaboration two posts down in the same link. at the time, thats what he was planning. obviously, the market changed. he can continue trolling me, i honestly dont care. he must be miserably banging his head on the keyboard and turning red with frustration. i will not derail this thread again and sorry for this one sided pissing contest.

while i appreciate the pms/emails, they are not necessary. im not going to let a personal interweb troll run me off.. since hes on ignore, i dont know his reply other than what others told me. ill gladly refute one lie, though, but thats it. i said barbouti wanted to build a 5 or 6 story boutique hotel at the gap location. additionally, said we discussed the possibility of building mid/high rise on top of 1 or 2 story retail. to my recollection, i said this prior to any published reports. could it have been months afterwards, as he allegedly claimed? i seriously doubt it but im not going to bang my head against the computer, absolutely frustrated, researching posts, and creating a timeline of when it was officially disclosed. while it may be something others sincerely care about, it really means absolutely nothing to me. believe me or not, my information came directly from haidar, period. anyways, that's that and back on topic. in case some missed this, here's something barton smith said back in december. unfortunately, the link is now dead but im sure there some that will gladly frantically search chron.com to confirm. http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/6150259.html brilliant minds think alike, eh?

that was the only way tracy could secure financing. unfortunately, several of his forclosed deals have the same contingency and none of them are trading.

back on topic. sorry if this has already been covered but just giving some insight on the mall. they foreclosed on tracy suttles about a year or so ago. the note holder is actually a group of 150 or so people.. think of it as a group of out-of-state average joes, that are not real estate savy, and its nothing more than a passive investment. in order for them to sell, they need a 100% approval vote. from what ive been told (couple of months ago), several groups approached them but nothing panned out. sorry to say but i dont believe anything will happen anytime soon...

im not going to waste bandwidth refuting your so-called retort that has obvious holes in it. credible reports (ie ads, oconnor, ect) all said 17k units in 07. im pretty sure in the same thread, i said that number could be lower, which you obviously decided not to selectively quote. furthermore, if you knew anything about the business, you would understand why the impact would be the following year. no where did i even imply the effects would be felt jan 25 2007. NO ONE at the time thought houston would explode in employment growth in 08 while the rest of the country went into the crapper. if you honestly thought otherwise, hope you put your money where your mouth is. pretty positive you didnt but who knows. if you think my "batting average" for these boards is sub 50%, by all means think that. you're wrong, period, but keep thinking that. in conclusion, you get your information from nancy sarnoff and other media sources. i get mine first hand experiences and other personal resources i deem reliable. neither are ever 100% accurate but i damn well will put mine over yours in a heart beat. to that, you are more than welcomed to respond but i wont read it. welcome to my ignore list.

awww look, its my little personal troll. hope you had a good new years. i like how you revise history. the blood bath was suppose to occur in 2008 but due to houston's employment, the units got filled. guess you knew our job growth would top the nation, huh? now that oil has plummeted, do you think we are going to equal or even come close to that growth? think we are still shielded from the national recession? uh, no.. we could see +/- 50k loss and some estimate 100k+ loss in the next 18 months. less jobs + even more units = blood bath its already starting to happen. rather than getting your insight from articles, go pound the pavement and see how the market is really doing. a month or two ago, in-fill "a" communities were giving 4 weeks free on a 13-month lease. today, its now up to 8 weeks plus reduced deposits. but hey, what do i know; this is what i do.