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mattyt36

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  1. Highly doubtful interest rates for a hotel development (whose business is predicated on conventions, no less) at this point are lower than what they were at the beginning of the year due to widening of credit spreads. It's a common misconception that just because the Fed Funds rate is low doesn't mean it translates 1-for-1 to borrowers, or that borrowers can get credit in the first place.
  2. It's difficult (for me, at least, not working in oil) to think of assumptions under which the oil industry as we know it returns. The size of the financial sector relative to the size of the city has been pretty awful since the S&L crisis. And Dallas is the regional hub by far of the national banks. I was using "back office" as more of a metaphor . . . what decisions of grand importance get made in Dallas? It's really just a bland consumer-oriented city. But, yes, attracting any new professional service sector "good jobs" in number not tied to the energy industry or, really, the local population growth would be a big deal.
  3. I understand the logic but I think if you dove deeper into Detroit's postwar economic statistics through the 1970s you would see they were way less diverse, plus tremendously large factories shuttered, each employing tens of thousands of working class people. With the deep racial tension, it was a powderkeg. In the Midwest I think a better corollary is Chicago . . . Chicago really hasn't recovered fully from the 1970s itself but has always had a very active business community and stable urban neighborhoods that people don't want to leave. Of course I hope Houston never becomes as fragmented (understatement) or fiscally challenged as Chicago. Otherwise I do think Houston is just increasingly Miami and Los Angeles, so there may be some growing pains.
  4. Interesting theory, although by the same token, seems to me that the lack of a visible upside in the industry any time soon, if ever, would make the city a very attractive target for companies interested in hiring qualified engineers. I don't think of Dallas as much more than a back office city, but obviously I'm biased. In any case, we can't deny that the City has been a magnet for migration, both domestically but especially internationally, despite not being a magnet for corporate relocations. And it's been my experience that the majority of people who live here love it and if they leave they come back (myself included). I have to ask myself, though, walking through the Heights, walking around Rice, seeing the redevelopment of other close-in neighborhoods, then all of the upper middle class suburbs . . . what do these people do, exactly, if they don't work in oil?!
  5. Not sure why the current administration (if you mean Turner) deserves blame for not attracting new non-energy companies here. We haven't competed seriously in a long time. The periodic energy sector relocations like Oxy clouds everyones' mind, I think. Does anyone even remember the last non-energy company that moved HQ here, not to mention one that set up shop downtown? I'm at a loss. Continental? That doesn't even really count considering TI was here before. Major corporate expansion? Ford? That was a call center. Seems like the major announcements have been more in the industrial sector. Absolutely nothing on par with what Dallas has gotten in the last decade. (I have no idea why anyone would think that was an attractive place to live, but I digress.) The 5 (or whatever) recent 100-year floods is certainly going to kick us off the list for another decade, and that's assuming we don't have more. I'm not saying it's bad. Not like Miami or Los Angeles have fared particularly well in this regard, either.
  6. Discussion of conversion of vacant space from March 2019 (probably not the best title)
  7. Yes, my apologies. The fall numbers reported them separately and the spring numbers reported them together. I just don't think the absorption number is reliable because I think we would have heard of it.
  8. Spring 2020 update. The Pennzoil Place number shows a lot of absorption . . . I'm not sure what lease that would've been or if Fall 2019 was in error. (Or maybe sublease excluded?) Address Bldg name Total space Avail space-Fall 2019 Vacancy-Fall 2019 Avail space-Spring 2020 Absorption Vacancy-Spring 2020 800 Bell Old Exxon 1,314,350 1,314,350 100% 1,314,350 0 100% Texas Tower New Hines 1,106,581 705,774 64% 673,142 32,632 61% 1001 Fannin Old First City 1,365,801 586,811 43% 552,336 34,475 40% 1600 Smith Old CO 1,227,182 489,881 40% 486,453 3,428 40% 600 Travis Old Chase 1,916,394 456,600 24% 459,828 -3,228 24% 601 Travis Old Chase garage 407,912 29,877 7% 26,817 3,060 7% 1021 Main One City Centre 554,953 424,260 76% 356,391 67,869 64% 700 Louisiana TC Energy Ctr 1,321,033 295,682 22% 303,390 -7,708 23% 1100 Louisiana Enterprise Plaza 1,391,152 288,812 21% 267,344 21,468 19% 1415 Louisiana Wedge Int'l Tower 536,626 275,179 51% 275,179 0% 811 Louisiana Old Two Shell Plaza 577,735 236,380 41% 239,201 -2,821 41% 1201 Fannin Greenstreet 656,994 230,532 35% 230,532 0 35% 1000 Main Reliant Energy Plaza 850,294 175,321 21% 175,321 0 21% 808 Travis Esperson 298,513 156,839 53% 236,518 -79,679 79% 1010 Lamar Younan Sqaure 258,776 143,727 56% 132,045 11,682 51% 910 Louisiana One Shell Plaza 1,231,896 137,364 11% 130,883 6,481 11% 712 Main The Jones on Main 794,186 128,817 16% 128,817 0 16% 800 Capital Bank of America Tower 754,000 93,725 12% 93,725 0 12% 919 Milam Old Bank of the SW 723,130 89,550 12% 111,360 -21,810 15% 811 Main BG Group Place 973,861 80,006 8% 67,349 12,657 7% 1001 McKinney Old City National Bank 378,101 78,997 21% 78,997 0 21% 801 Travis 417,693 75,675 18% 75,675 0 18% 601 Jefferson KBR Tower 1,087,974 69,888 6% 81,212 -11,324 7% 1301 Fannin Houston Data Center 766,950 65,000 8% 60,000 5,000 8% 609 Main 1,057,658 64,109 6% 58,611 5,498 6% 801 Louisiana Goodrich Petroleum 105,145 38,670 37% 38,679 -9 37% 1801 Main Amegy Bank 238,886 33,964 14% 33,964 0 14% 917 Main 140,000 8,757 6% 8,757 0 6% Pennzoil Place Pennzoil Place South 1,424,162 535,346 43% 91,941 443,405 6% 1221 McKinney LyondellBasell Tower/1 HC 1,103,424 193,009 17% 212,675 -19,666 19% 909 Fannin St 2 Houston Center 1,102,279 276,353 25% 215,859 60,494 20% 1301 McKinney Fulbright Tower/3 HC 1,311,133 401,701 31% 346,045 55,656 26% 1221 Lamar 4 Houston Center 1,526,323 404,282 26% 419,538 -15,256 27% 1401 McKinney 5 Houston Center 606,786 198,238 33% 190,089 8,149 31% Total Houston Center 5,649,945 1,473,583 26% 1,384,206 89,377 24% 500 Dallas One Allen Center 930,730 140,781 15% 150,323 -9,542 16% 1200 Smith Two Allen Center 1,075,210 361,621 34% 361,621 0 34% 333 Clay Three Allen Center 1,282,908 207,036 16% 166,058 40,978 13% Total Allen Center 3,288,848 709,438 22% 678,002 31,436 21% These were not shown in the Fall 2019 numbers so I don't have a comparison. Address Bldg name Total space Avail space-Spring 2020 Vacancy-Spring 2020 717 Texas Old Calpine 705,885 303,126 43% 1315 St. Joseph Medical Place One 207,388 58,096 28% 917 Franklin Commercial Bank 47,704 12,679 27% 440 Louisiana Lyric Centre 402,559 8,890 2% 1018 Preston Republic 22,204 4,982 22% 110 Bagby 33,124 3,067 9% 412 Main State Nat'l Bank 55,844 2,000 4%
  9. Name something after a park and add “Streets” to it, makes perfect sense. 🙄
  10. Erm, I wouldn’t call JW Marriott “ultra luxury” any more than I’d call W “luxury.”
  11. Does the Moxy qualify as a "micro hotel"? (Any one know what is going on with that, BTW?)
  12. Well that's great news . . . new concepts and renders always bode well. I mean developers always restrain the bold, imaginative, and fanciful until a budget is involved. 🙄
  13. FWIW, the Embassy Suites itself is one of the best ones I've ever stayed in, and I've stayed in plenty.
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