brian0123

Harvey impact on real estate?

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brian0123    359

Thought I'd start a thread around how Harvey will impact our housing. Some initial thoughts I had were...

1. I'd imagine hotels/rentals will fill up as people transition from flooded homes to temporary housing during rebuilds. Will this correct some of the oversupply we've seen in the rental market?

2. Impacted areas: I'm thinking we'll see new builds in the innerloop areas where older homes have been flooded. Not sure how the suburbs will play out.

3. Building type: Some levels reported were at roof lines. Other places that never flooded did. I'm curious if we're going to see the end of your traditional slab foundation in favor of raised homes (Galveston type as an extreme). I know if I were rebuilding somewhere like Meyerland, I'd probably favor a Galveston type of build and treat the area beneath as parking/storage.

4. Pricing: Will flooded vs not even matter anymore? Will we just assume something will flood at some point?

 

Curious what your thoughts are. I know this storm is unprecedented and we're still in recovery, but there are going to be some definite changes as a result and it will be interesting to see how this city transforms.

 

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cspwal    1800

I know personally that I'm not willing to buy a simple slab foundation house anymore, especially a 1 story one

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BeerNut    300

1. good luck trying to get a hotel for months.  Will be filled with workers and people displaced. apartments will fill as people that were renting homes will move into apartments that weren't damaged.  there will also be taking on short term rentals while their homes are being fixed

2. Meyerland is going to look like a neighborhood on the coast.

3. I'm sure those with house over garage townhomes are feeling good about their purchases.

4.  some people will be extremely flood sensitive

 

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Ross    616
6 hours ago, BeerNut said:

 

3. I'm sure those with house over garage townhomes are feeling good about their purchases.

 

 

The townhome we owned at the time flooded in Allison, but didn't go over the outlets. It cost about $6500 to repair, and we replaced the carpet with tile, and the vanity in the bathroom with a pedestal sink. There's not much else to get damaged there now, so the house over garage concept works well for floods.

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brian0123    359

I can't imagine what's going to happen to the rental market for houses in areas near the impacted places. Families want to stay near their kid's schools, so I'd think rental rates are going to skyrocket.

 

The one thing I can't wrap my head around is the suburbs. There are some neighborhoods like Sienna Planation that were devasted. Does everyone remodel and life goes on? Will more sprawl happen where developers build land up and start advertising "higher" lots? OR, are so many homes impacted that no one will really care?

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Ross    616
8 hours ago, brian0123 said:

I can't imagine what's going to happen to the rental market for houses in areas near the impacted places. Families want to stay near their kid's schools, so I'd think rental rates are going to skyrocket.

 

The one thing I can't wrap my head around is the suburbs. There are some neighborhoods like Sienna Planation that were devasted. Does everyone remodel and life goes on? Will more sprawl happen where developers build land up and start advertising "higher" lots? OR, are so many homes impacted that no one will really care?

Sienna Plantation is a really nice development, with great amenities. That never should have happened. Any development that requires massive levees to hold back the nearby river is probably in the wrong place. Especially when those levees also negatively impacted the natural flow of another body of water, Oyster Creek. This also applies to places like Canyon Gate in Cinco Ranch, which was built inside the Barker Dam. I am not anti-development, but these are situations where the developers are not being held responsible for the potential damage of their work, nor are they forced to be truthful to buyers. At Canyon Gate for instance, the developer should have been forced to give each buyer a piece of paper with a bold black outline saying "This property is inside a flood control area, and is lower than the potential top of the high water. In a large rain even, this property will almost certainly flood" in 20 point type, along with "This property is not eligible for flood insurance, because it is in a really stupid place to build houses"

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HoustonBoy    65

Will Harvey have a negative effect on future developments and investment? I know most building already under construction will resume their work, but can we expect to see delayed growth in the coming months/years as people are now even more aware of the potential dangers surrounding Houston and the gulf? Another thing I've been thinking about is maybe because of the amount of attention Houston is receiving there will be a collective effort nationwide to improve Houston infrastructure and the city itself. I know these questions come second to the current mission of rescuing people and dealing with the loss of life, but I still hope we can learn from this and be more educated when rebuilding and planning for the years to come.

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UtterlyUrban    1376
13 hours ago, Ross said:

. At Canyon Gate .......... "This property is not eligible for flood insurance, because it is in a really stupid place to build houses"

Is this true?

 

i thought that the government flood insurance was "insurer of last resort" and all properties were insurable.  If not insurable, no one would be able to get a mortgage.  Did everyone in Canyon Gate pay cash for their properties?

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gmac    152
23 minutes ago, UtterlyUrban said:

Is this true?

 

i thought that the government flood insurance was "insurer of last resort" and all properties were insurable.  If not insurable, no one would be able to get a mortgage.  Did everyone in Canyon Gate pay cash for their properties?

 

No, but I think the larger point is that it should be incumbent upon the developers to clearly specify to prospective buyers that the property is in a zone that WILL flood, possibly in a devastating fashion. I'm sure that Land Tejas would have had a more difficult time unloading those homes in Canyon Gate, but so be it.

 

From their website (https://landtejas.com/about-us/20-years-and-going-strong/):

Quote

 

In 1997, two real estate visionaries proposed a new way to build communities in the Houston area. Their concept was built around the synergy of gated neighborhoods with sensibly-priced homes in desirable locations.

Founders Al Brende and Courtney Grover brought their dream to life with Canyon Gate at Cinco Ranch, a community that quickly became a roadmap for the Canyon Gate communities, a succession of primarily guard-gated neighborhoods offering resort-style amenities and homes equipped with the latest technology. Homes sold quickly, and the Canyon Gate name became legend in Houston.

 

 

Yep, it will indeed be a legend, fellas.

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brian0123    359

Does anyone know what criteria is used when deciding if lots should be bought and turned into park land? I'm curious if some of these neighborhoods will be forced to tear down and remain empty.

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Ross    616
2 hours ago, UtterlyUrban said:

Is this true?

 

i thought that the government flood insurance was "insurer of last resort" and all properties were insurable.  If not insurable, no one would be able to get a mortgage.  Did everyone in Canyon Gate pay cash for their properties?

Sadly, it's not true. There are some areas that just should not be eligible for flood insurance. I am not advocating removing it from properties that currently have it, but any new developments located like Canyon Gate should not be eligible.

Edited by Ross

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strickn    122
11 hours ago, HoustonBoy said:

Will Harvey have a negative effect on future developments and investment? I know most building already under construction will resume their work, but can we expect to see delayed growth in the coming months/years as people are now even more aware of the potential dangers surrounding Houston and the gulf? Another thing I've been thinking about is maybe because of the amount of attention Houston is receiving there will be a collective effort nationwide to improve Houston infrastructure and the city itself. I know these questions come second to the current mission of rescuing people and dealing with the loss of life, but I still hope we can learn from this and be more educated when rebuilding and planning for the years to come.

 

Of your several questions, I'd start with the collective national effort one.

 

It's a good line of thinking, but of the estimated $121 billion that the second Bush administration spent on Katrina recovery, I read that $75 billion or two-thirds went to emergency relief only, not to rebuilding.  People all over America will be paying for our rescue whether they like it or not, but I don't think we can count on America falling in love with Houston and trying to overhaul it.  Houston has been racking up the #1 rankings so fast for so long that it comes naturally to us to ask your first question, "Can we get back to growing now?"  But that question is tied closely to your idea of learning from Harvey, and in fact shows the temptation not to learn much if it stands in the way of rising back to #1 ASAP.  

 

Being the fastest riser in the national economy, and getting those pats on the back, is nice, short-term, but if we don't reimagine Houston -- instead of just more of the same -- the only people who will join us in locating here are those who will say, "Hey, okay, let's sign my kids up for Harvey Part II..."

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OkieEric    384

One thing is for certain:  be ready to start seeing "no water during Harvey!" as a key phrase in real estate listings over the next decade or so.  The flooding was so widespread from this that many buyers, when looking at a new property listing, will have no idea whether or not it previously flooded based on general location alone.  The question is whether people will care - that is, are they going to view Harvey as a "once in a lifetime" event (see Allison) and thus discount any flooding from Harvey, or whether they view this as some sort of new normal to avoid at all costs.  I think initially people may be concerned with whether the property flooded (especially since so many locals just went through the experience), but if we expect more normal weather patterns for a few years it will matter considerably less with time.  I know if I were to look to sell my house ("no water during Harvey!" but we had our moments) and buy another soon, it's certainly something I would want to know and perhaps avoid even though I keep hearing it was a "1000 year flood" event.  Longer-term I'd certainly care less

 

I really do wonder what's going to happen with the houses impacted by Barker/Addicks.  Many that have NEVER flooded may be flooded for weeks - what kind of impact is that going to have?

 

Edited by OkieEric

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brian0123    359

Another caveat to this I hadn't thought about earlier is impact to parking requirements in RE development. There's a lot of concrete out there to park our almighty cars. Will the city scale down required parking spaces? I'd love to see a stricter tax on malls and shopping centers that do not have permeable parking surfaces.

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Fringe    325

Wonder how many people will just walk away from their mortgages if it's more that lot value?    

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UtterlyUrban    1376
10 hours ago, gmac said:

So, to the point above, it seems that at least the homeowers in this neighborhood got plenty of warning BEFORE buying. And they bought anyway.  I feel sad for them -- what they are going through now is terrible and potentially devastating financially.   But, frankly, if this quote is correct, it really does show that these folks must have weighed the risks before closing and decided to take the chance.  

 

*********

“Your standing on the emergency spillway for these reservoirs,” the Army Corp representative said.

 

At times, Hebert seemed to continue the tough love; reminding homeowners their documents of homeownership make it clear they have purchased a home that’s located in an area that could flood.

“It has verbiage on that statement that the dam exists and if the dam suffers an event greater than a 100-year flood, water may enter this property,” Hebert said.

 

 

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BeerNut    300
10 hours ago, gmac said:

 

I hate to be an ass but do people even look at maps when they shop for homes.  That whole area is no go zone based on a quick glance.  I was lucky in that my home didn't flood but I also took the precaution of purchasing a home that was several miles away from bayous, drainage ditches, or any area that normally floods.  

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mollusk    1455

It would be helpful to start using terms like "1% chance of flooding" rather than "100 year flood" - if for no other reason than the percentage more accurately conveys the concept.  

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Firebird65    51
3 hours ago, mollusk said:

It would be helpful to start using terms like "1% chance of flooding" rather than "100 year flood" - if for no other reason than the percentage more accurately conveys the concept.  

 

Good point.

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Slick Vik    444
On 8/30/2017 at 2:26 PM, BeerNut said:

1. good luck trying to get a hotel for months.  Will be filled with workers and people displaced. apartments will fill as people that were renting homes will move into apartments that weren't damaged.  there will also be taking on short term rentals while their homes are being fixed

2. Meyerland is going to look like a neighborhood on the coast.

3. I'm sure those with house over garage townhomes are feeling good about their purchases.

4.  some people will be extremely flood sensitive

 

 

What if the garage floods?

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IronTiger    721
3 hours ago, Slick Vik said:

 

What if the garage floods?

That means their car is probably sitting in a racetrack miles away somewhere as an appraiser sees if it's a total loss or not.

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BeerNut    300
3 hours ago, Slick Vik said:

 

What if the garage floods?

 

Then all the stuff your spouse had been nagging you to throw out is ruined and is now at the road.  The vehicles were never in the garage....

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