Houston population stats?

[ToryGattis]

Does anybody have the data (and sources) for the Houston MSA's population growth over the last couple of decades broken down inside the loop, loop to BW8, and outside BW8?  If not that exact breakdown, then I'm looking for something showing growth in the core vs. the suburbs, by whatever division you happen to have.  If available, forecasts forward would be great too...

 

(thanks in advance!)

Edited March 24, 2013 by ToryGattis

[livincinco]

Does anybody have the data (and sources) for the Houston MSA's population growth over the last couple of decades broken down inside the loop, loop to BW8, and outside BW8?  If not that exact breakdown, then I'm looking for something showing growth in the core vs. the suburbs, by whatever division you happen to have.  If available, forecasts forward would be great too...

 

(thanks in advance!)

Just happened upon this report. It only breaks down Harris county, but it shows the following based on 2010 census data:

Inside 610 loop - 469,051

Loop to Beltway - 1,597,326

Outside the Beltway - 2,026,082

If my math is correct, there's an additional 1,994,079 in the MSA that live outside of Harris County.

The report also shows the growth since the 2000 census as 12,402 inside the loop out of a population increase of 691,881 in Harris County. I've linked to the full report below.

http://www.allianceportregion.com/PressReleases/Harris_County_PopulationMarch2011final.pdf

I'd love to hear someone explain this data in the context of the common perception that people are moving out of the suburbs and into the urban core.

[ToryGattis]

Just happened upon this report. It only breaks down Harris county, but it shows the following based on 2010 census data:

Inside 610 loop - 469,051

Loop to Beltway - 1,597,326

Outside the Beltway - 2,026,082

If my math is correct, there's an additional 1,994,079 in the MSA that live outside of Harris County.

The report also shows the growth since the 2000 census as 12,402 inside the loop out of a population increase of 691,881 in Harris County. I've linked to the full report below.

http://www.allianceportregion.com/PressReleases/Harris_County_PopulationMarch2011final.pdf

I'd love to hear someone explain this data in the context of the common perception that people are moving out of the suburbs and into the urban core.

 

Thanks, livincinco.  This is helpful.  I knew most of the growth was in the suburbs, but had no idea it was that lopsided (less than 2% inside the loop!).  It's also kind of amazing how cleanly it works out (approximately): 1/2 mil inside the loop, 1.5 mil to bw8, 2 mil outside bw8 but in the county, and 2m outside the county but in the MSA.

[brian0123]

I'd love to hear someone explain this data in the context of the common perception that people are moving out of the suburbs and into the urban core.

 

First, the urban core is a WAY smaller area compared to the suburbs (and even then, you should probably only look at west of 288 within 610) and the places it is growing are mostly from singles/couples (vs families in the burbs... hence the school enrollment stats).

 

Second, this report does not show demographic and income changes within these areas. If it did, it would most likely show that the suburbs are being filled with tons of middle and lower income families (nothing wrong with that), while the urban core is filling up with higher income singles/couples/ and now familes. In other words, white flight is sort of reversing. It's at a point where it can't really go any further out (unless one day La Grange becomes a suburb of Houston )

 

When people like me say the urban core is growing, I typically mean that areas that were lower/middle income and were full of older/widowed people are now becoming vibrant communities again. Personally, I grew up in the burbs, moved into the loop, and first witnessed Midtown (in a period of 5 years) spring huge new apartment complexes and add thousands of new residents. Then, we moved over near Braeswood and are now renovating a house and raising our young family in it. The neighborhood has more kids in it than it has in a long time, and it's like the suburbs in the middle of the city. More families move in every day... and thus, people like me say the city is growing based on personal experience.

 

Yes, the burbs will always grow faster. The question is what kind of growth will it be and will current residents like what they see as their neighborhood changes?

[livincinco]

First, the urban core is a WAY smaller area compared to the suburbs (and even then, you should probably only look at west of 288 within 610) and the places it is growing are mostly from singles/couples (vs families in the burbs... hence the school enrollment stats).

 

Second, this report does not show demographic and income changes within these areas. If it did, it would most likely show that the suburbs are being filled with tons of middle and lower income families (nothing wrong with that), while the urban core is filling up with higher income singles/couples/ and now familes. In other words, white flight is sort of reversing. It's at a point where it can't really go any further out (unless one day La Grange becomes a suburb of Houston )

 

When people like me say the urban core is growing, I typically mean that areas that were lower/middle income and were full of older/widowed people are now becoming vibrant communities again. Personally, I grew up in the burbs, moved into the loop, and first witnessed Midtown (in a period of 5 years) spring huge new apartment complexes and add thousands of new residents. Then, we moved over near Braeswood and are now renovating a house and raising our young family in it. The neighborhood has more kids in it than it has in a long time, and it's like the suburbs in the middle of the city. More families move in every day... and thus, people like me say the city is growing based on personal experience.

 

Yes, the burbs will always grow faster. The question is what kind of growth will it be and will current residents like what they see as their neighborhood changes?

I absolutely question your statement that there is a movement of higher income people to move inside the loop and lower income people outside the loop. I don't have stats to support this, but overall income in Houston has increased during the discussed period, so I would argue that the gentrification that you're seeing in the urban core is related to overall growth in the region. If anything, the continuing development of high paying jobs in areas such as the Energy Corridor and The Woodlands would indicate that migration in those areas is being driven by higher income levels. Additionally, home prices continue to increase in the suburbs which is the exact opposite of what you would expect to see based on your statement.

Understand your point that there are a lot of apartments being built inside the loop right now, but don't forget that (as is frequently noted in this forum), many of those apartments are being built in locations that require existing apartments to be torn down, so I don't think that the net gain will end up being as high as you might think.

I also understand that the area inside the loop is a small area in terms of size, but the ratios don't hold up if you look at those numbers. The area inside the loop is approx. 96 sq miles while the size of Harris County is 1,778 sq miles. That means that inside the loop is 5.3% of the total area inside Harris County and that it had 1.8% of the total population growth from 2000 - 2010.

I'm all in favor of continued development of the urban core, but let's be realistic about what it is. It's a sign of the general improvement in the overall Houston economy, not any kind of demographic change.

[OkieEric]

To further Brian's point, if you go to pg. 4 of linked report it breaks population change down by census tract.  Tracts 41 and 51 (western part of loop) grew 11% and 13%, respectively, from 2000 to 2010 while the eastern areas inside the loop actually declined.

 

As someone who has lived in Midtown, Montrose, and now also Braeswood over the last decade or so I can assure you there has been quite a change.  Of course it is related to growth in the Houston economy, but if/when things slow again let's just see how much better the suburbs fare

 

I don't have any references handy but I am fairly certain the property value increases in the western part of the loop have outpaced the suburbs.  Then again, there are a lot of suburbs out there and certainly some areas have done better than others

 

[august948]

To further Brian's point, if you go to pg. 4 of linked report it breaks population change down by census tract.  Tracts 41 and 51 (western part of loop) grew 11% and 13%, respectively, from 2000 to 2010 while the eastern areas inside the loop actually declined.

That would support the notion that the population center of Houston has shifted westward outside the loop. I think I heard somewhere (maybe in another thread) that the population center of Houston was somewhere around I10 and the Beltway.

[august948]

First, the urban core is a WAY smaller area compared to the suburbs (and even then, you should probably only look at west of 288 within 610) and the places it is growing are mostly from singles/couples (vs families in the burbs... hence the school enrollment stats).

 

Second, this report does not show demographic and income changes within these areas. If it did, it would most likely show that the suburbs are being filled with tons of middle and lower income families (nothing wrong with that), while the urban core is filling up with higher income singles/couples/ and now familes. In other words, white flight is sort of reversing. It's at a point where it can't really go any further out (unless one day La Grange becomes a suburb of Houston )

 

When people like me say the urban core is growing, I typically mean that areas that were lower/middle income and were full of older/widowed people are now becoming vibrant communities again. Personally, I grew up in the burbs, moved into the loop, and first witnessed Midtown (in a period of 5 years) spring huge new apartment complexes and add thousands of new residents. Then, we moved over near Braeswood and are now renovating a house and raising our young family in it. The neighborhood has more kids in it than it has in a long time, and it's like the suburbs in the middle of the city. More families move in every day... and thus, people like me say the city is growing based on personal experience.

 

Yes, the burbs will always grow faster. The question is what kind of growth will it be and will current residents like what they see as their neighborhood changes?

I think the 610 loop may be a convenient, but not necessarily accurate, delimiter for the "urban core". Houston is, architecturally speaking, almost entirely suburban in character. If you can get population density broken down sufficiently, you might be able to better define the core.

While La Grange is indeed well beyond being exurban for Houston, you might be surprised by how many people commute in from places like Brenham and Sealy.

[livincinco]

To further Brian's point, if you go to pg. 4 of linked report it breaks population change down by census tract.  Tracts 41 and 51 (western part of loop) grew 11% and 13%, respectively, from 2000 to 2010 while the eastern areas inside the loop actually declined.

 

As someone who has lived in Midtown, Montrose, and now also Braeswood over the last decade or so I can assure you there has been quite a change.  Of course it is related to growth in the Houston economy, but if/when things slow again let's just see how much better the suburbs fare

 

I don't have any references handy but I am fairly certain the property value increases in the western part of the loop have outpaced the suburbs.  Then again, there are a lot of suburbs out there and certainly some areas have done better than others

Fair enough, but I think that it's also reasonable to consider that the growth inside the west part of the loop is potentially due to some people from the east side moving to the west side. That would potentially reflect the upturn in the economy as well as being a reasonably logical migration and would reflect why the overall growth rate was so low. I think that it's also fair to point out that the subject period includes arguably the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression (even though the effects were not felt as strongly in Houston as in other areas) and that does not seem to have adversely affected suburb growth. I would additionally say that the explosive growth of office development along the I-10 corridor and in The Woodlands is likely to soften any future impact on the suburbs of a future economic downturn.

I think that there's also legitimate room for discussion about what exactly a suburb is in the context of Houston today. Is The Woodlands area really a suburb? It certainly bears no resemblence to suburbia of the 1950's. It has it's own thriving job base, restaurants, entertainment venues, and recreation options. I'll bet that there's an increasing number of residents that rarely travel inside the loop. The same question applies to Sugarland and other rapidly developing areas.

My expectation is that we'll continue to see job development reflect the population numbers. An increasing number of companies will locate outside the loop to be closer to where the majority of people live and we'll continue to see an increasing degree of urbanization that occurs in the "suburban" nexus areas. Inside the loop will continue to be the cultural center of Houston, but will continue to decrease as a percentage of the population of the MSA.

[august948]

I think that there's also legitimate room for discussion about what exactly a suburb is in the context of Houston today. Is The Woodlands area really a suburb? It certainly bears no resemblence to suburbia of the 1950's. It has it's own thriving job base, restaurants, entertainment venues, and recreation options. I'll bet that there's an increasing number of residents that rarely travel inside the loop. The same question applies to Sugarland and other rapidly developing areas.

My expectation is that we'll continue to see job development reflect the population numbers. An increasing number of companies will locate outside the loop to be closer to where the majority of people live and we'll continue to see an increasing degree of urbanization that occurs in the "suburban" nexus areas. Inside the loop will continue to be the cultural center of Houston, but will continue to decrease as a percentage of the population of the MSA.

I think what we're talking about here is the development of "edge cities", where downtown becomes just the biggest or oldest of several concentrations of office space and jobs.

[livincinco]

I think what we're talking about here is the development of "edge cities", where downtown becomes just the biggest or oldest of several concentrations of office space and jobs.

Thank you. I was struggling for that term and not coming up with it...

[brian0123]

Really, I think the growth on the east side of the innerloop is stunted due to the refineries. I looked at some property on the east side of the loop, but the wind blew an interesting smell my way and I said nope. Even so, there is tremendous growth south and southeast in Pearland/Alvin/Clear Lake/etc.... so not everything is north/west for the burbs.

 

As for places like the Woodlands, I look at them as fake cities. Yes, they have several major employers and a couple impressive buildings... but remove that and you just have a big mall. It's a place where everything is planned and catered around employees that work in those handfull of businesses. It's a great concept, but if you lose/hate your job at one of those businesses... your SOL if you can't find a job next door or you just deal with the commute to energy corridor or Downtown/Galleria.

 

Sugarland will never become a huge "jobs center" due to the painful commute times to IAH and Hobby.

 

Katy/Energy Corridor will grow until it starts to turn like Greenspoint did. There are just far too many large apartment complexes that are "newish" along it that will deteriorate quickly.

 

My money long-term is Downtown/Galleria and the Medical Center. If I had a crystal ball I'd predict that the area around Reliant Stadium will also grow one day.

[livincinco]

Really, I think the growth on the east side of the innerloop is stunted due to the refineries. I looked at some property on the east side of the loop, but the wind blew an interesting smell my way and I said nope. Even so, there is tremendous growth south and southeast in Pearland/Alvin/Clear Lake/etc.... so not everything is north/west for the burbs.

 

As for places like the Woodlands, I look at them as fake cities. Yes, they have several major employers and a couple impressive buildings... but remove that and you just have a big mall. It's a place where everything is planned and catered around employees that work in those handfull of businesses. It's a great concept, but if you lose/hate your job at one of those businesses... your SOL if you can't find a job next door or you just deal with the commute to energy corridor or Downtown/Galleria.

 

Sugarland will never become a huge "jobs center" due to the painful commute times to IAH and Hobby.

 

Katy/Energy Corridor will grow until it starts to turn like Greenspoint did. There are just far too many large apartment complexes that are "newish" along it that will deteriorate quickly.

 

My money long-term is Downtown/Galleria and the Medical Center. If I had a crystal ball I'd predict that the area around Reliant Stadium will also grow one day.

That's an amazing large amount of bias without any supporting reasons. I'm particularly impressed that you can dismiss The Woodlands, with a 99.6% class A occupancy rate as a "fake city" with a "handful of businesses"...one of which happens to be the corporate headquarters of the second largest company in the world. There's absolutely no reason that supporting industries would continue to cluster in that immediate region or that anyone would fill the approx. 1.5 million sq ft of office space (not including the 1.7 million sq ft that Exxon is building) that's currently under construction there.

Understand your viewpoint completely, because there is clearly every sign that Houston is going to contract over the next 20 years because the 2.5 million people that are projected to be added to the population during that time are going to live...somewhere...

[RedScare]

Did the Woodlands annex Exxon? Did Exxon move its HQ?

 

Why doesn't anyone tell me these things.    

[livincinco]

Did the Woodlands annex Exxon? Did Exxon move its HQ?

Why doesn't anyone tell me these things.

I reserve the right to bend the truth as necessary to make my point.

[RedScare]

It's an internet forum. That's what they are for.    

[Trae]

Really, I think the growth on the east side of the innerloop is stunted due to the refineries. I looked at some property on the east side of the loop, but the wind blew an interesting smell my way and I said nope. Even so, there is tremendous growth south and southeast in Pearland/Alvin/Clear Lake/etc.... so not everything is north/west for the burbs.

As for places like the Woodlands, I look at them as fake cities. Yes, they have several major employers and a couple impressive buildings... but remove that and you just have a big mall. It's a place where everything is planned and catered around employees that work in those handfull of businesses. It's a great concept, but if you lose/hate your job at one of those businesses... your SOL if you can't find a job next door or you just deal with the commute to energy corridor or Downtown/Galleria.

Sugarland will never become a huge "jobs center" due to the painful commute times to IAH and Hobby.

Katy/Energy Corridor will grow until it starts to turn like Greenspoint did. There are just far too many large apartment complexes that are "newish" along it that will deteriorate quickly.

My money long-term is Downtown/Galleria and the Medical Center. If I had a crystal ball I'd predict that the area around Reliant Stadium will also grow one day.

I think the refineries over there stunt some of the growth too. The eastern half of the loop probably declined because the families there got promotions and moved to Pasadena, Baytown, Clear Lake, etc. That and more singles have moved there as families have left.

The Woodlands is pretty impressive. It definitely feels like a fake city but they planned it well. Most people up there still work somewhere in Houston I bet. Travel time to Hobby from Sugar Land isn't that bad. TW has definitely jumped over it in the jobs department though.

As for Katy/Energy Corridor, there is nothing that resembles Greenspoint. The housing stock is too great and there are too many companies based around there for it to happen. Greenspoint doesn't have the housing stock and Sharpstown didn't have the corporations. The Katy Freeway has long been the only freeway in Houston that doesn't pass through any "seedy" areas. I don't think that is going to change.

[samagon]

Really, I think the growth on the east side of the innerloop is stunted due to the refineries. I looked at some property on the east side of the loop, but the wind blew an interesting smell my way and I said nope. 

 

There are no refineries inside the loop. Maybe, if you were out east of 75th, maybe you'd smell something from one of them. I'd doubt it though.

 

Are you sure you didn't mistake the smell of roasting coffee with a refinery? The old Maxwell roaster is right smack in the middle of the east end and within a radius of about half a mile from it, you'll catch a whiff of coffee being roasted, outside that, the wind has to be blowing hard in the right direction to smell it, I'm about 1.5 miles from it, and smell it whenever a cold front blows hard.

 

Point is, there are very few areas in the east end that you can possibly smell anything that's happening at a refinery.

[brian0123]

Are you sure you didn't mistake the smell of roasting coffee with a refinery?

 

I was looking past Gus Wortham golf course. I believe there is some stuff right at 225 and 610 and I'm guessing that's what I was smelling. I was referring mainly to the Far East End (if that's a term).

[samagon]

I was looking past Gus Wortham golf course. I believe there is some stuff right at 225 and 610 and I'm guessing that's what I was smelling. I was referring mainly to the Far East End (if that's a term).

 

that's entirely possible, that's pretty much out past 75th, and I imagine if the wind is blowing right, you might catch a scent. My aunt and uncle owned a house over at Evergreen and Woodridge, and I don't ever recall smelling anything funky when we visited, but who knows. Their house was about 2 miles from the closest refinery though.

 

To tell you the truth, for work I get sent out to refineries, maybe once a year? Not that often, but every time I go, I'm always curious about what smells I should be on the watch for. The answer is always, most of the stuff that can kill you, you won't smell, and if it smells like freshly mowed grass, you're going to die rather quickly. They never commented on the other unsavory smells.

 

For the money, I'd rather live close to a refinery than say, a paper mill, those are some nasty smells.

 

And then there's the smell at milk factories (head over to the oak farms milk thingy, give some smells around that). 

 

If you want to live near an industrial something, go for a bread factory

Edited May 9, 2013 by samagon

[brian0123]

If you want to live near an industrial something, go for a bread factory

 

True, or fortune cookies. When I lived in Midtown I was a block away from the fortune cookie factory on Caroline. Friggin awesome smell when they were cooking them.

[kylejack]

I'd love to hear someone explain this data in the context of the common perception that people are moving out of the suburbs and into the urban core.

 

I don't think anything is implied in that data about which direction people are moving. All the data says is that a lot of people are moving to Houston from other places.

[august948]

To tell you the truth, for work I get sent out to refineries, maybe once a year? Not that often, but every time I go, I'm always curious about what smells I should be on the watch for. The answer is always, most of the stuff that can kill you, you won't smell, and if it smells like freshly mowed grass, you're going to die rather quickly. They never commented on the other unsavory smells.

I'm curious, what smells like freshly mowed grass and kills quickly?

For the money, I'd rather live close to a refinery than say, a paper mill, those are some nasty smells.

Amen to that. We lived about 10 miles from a paper plant when I was a kid and you could get a whiff of it if the wind blew just right. Driving by it was a nightmare. Far worse than any refinery I've ever smelled.

If you want to live near an industrial something, go for a bread factory

Mmmm...fresh baked bread.

[Ross]

I'm curious, what smells like freshly mowed grass and kills quickly?

 

 

Phosgene. It's used in a lot of chemical processes.

[KinkaidAlum]

Of course the suburbs are growing faster than Inside the Loop. There's tons of land available and much more affordable properties to entice people to move there. 

 

When I bought my first condo in Houston in the mid 1990s in the 019 part of Montrose, it cost me $190,000. Today, similar units are easily over $500,000. Its getting harder and harder to buy into the Loop market. 

 

That said, there's no way the population growth from 2000-2010 was just 12,000. Me thinks there was a pretty massive undercount. Heck, the massive complexes fronting Allen Parkway and Memorial Drive probably can account for several thousand people, and no, these places didn't displace residents. They were built on industrial land, rice silos, and vacant parcels. 

[livincinco]

As was mentioned earlier in the thread, gains in the west side of the loop were offset by losses in the east side. As far as I know, that data is pulled from the official census data so please provide a source stating different data for comparison.

In terms of the suburbs being cheaper than closer in properties, that's pretty much inherent in the concept of a suburb.

[KinkaidAlum]

The Census is far from an exact science.

 

Houston's estimated response rate in 2010 was 67%. Additionally, the link you provided also was using the unadjusted figures for Houston's population (2,057,280). 

 

The mayor's office challenged those numbers by showing that the census had faulty data and had missed entire new residential developments. The challenge won. Houston's adjusted figure, according to the Census, was 2,100,263. That's an admitted error of 42,983 folks. 

[livincinco]

I still don't see that as a significant statistical difference. My point was that the data doesn't show a significant trend towards urbanization. Even if you accept the additional 42k and assume that they were all inside the loop (and I don't know how safe an assumption that is), I don't see that changing the overall trend.

[brian0123]

Recent report about poverty increasing in the suburbs. While not talking about Houston, it highlights the fact that immigrant and lower income families are now taking up housing in the suburbs. http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/20/nyregion/suburbs-are-home-to-growing-share-of-regions-poor.html?hp

 

NPR also had a report this morning about this study saying that aid organizations (which have forever been focused on serving rural/urban areas, are having to readjust to serve the suburbs).

 

In Houston, yes... the population shifts to the Woodlands/Sugarland/etc. do have higher income people there... but those places are still "new" and are outliers. I would bet that the trends around the country are also happening here (the higher cost of housing in the loop is pushing people to the burbs). Go to any European city and you tend to see the same trend has already happened there.

[kbates2]

http://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Poverty-on-the-rise-in-Houston-suburbs-4529783.php

Link specifically for Houston.