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Is It Game Over for Atlanta?


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Is It Game Over for Atlanta?

by Aaron M. Renn

05/19/2010

http://www.newgeogra...me-over-atlanta

Atlanta is arguably the greatest American urban growth story of the 20th century. In 1950, it was a sleepy state capital in a region of about a million people, not much different from Indianapolis or Columbus, Ohio. Today, it's a teeming region of 5.5 million, the 9th largest in America, home to the world's busiest airport, a major subway system, and numerous corporations. Critically, it also has established itself as the country's premier African American hub at a time of black empowerment.

Though famous for its sprawl, Atlanta has also quietly become one of America's top urban success stories. The city of Atlanta has added nearly 120,000 new residents since 2000, a population increase of 28% representing fully 10% of the region's growth during that period. None of America's traditional premier urban centers can make that claim. As a Chicago city-dweller who did multiple consulting stints in Atlanta, I can tell you the city is much better than its reputation in urbanists circles suggests, and it is a place I could happily live.

As with many other boomtowns, in Atlanta growth itself has been among the biggest industries. Construction particularly played a big role in its economy. The housing crisis cut the legs from under Atlanta's real estate machine. Though prices didn't collapse, new home building did. From 2005 to 2009 Atlanta's number of annual building permits fell by 66,352, the biggest decline of any metro area.

Atlanta grew strongly in the 2000s, with growth of over 1.2 million people, a 29% rise that beat peer cities like Dallas and Houston. But look at the recent past and see a very different dynamic. Domestic in-migration has cratered, only reaching 17,479 last year, or 0.32%. While migration did slow nationally last year due to the economy, Dallas and Houston continued to power ahead. Dallas added 45,241 people (0.72%) and Houston added 49,662 (0.87%). Even Indianapolis added 7,034, but that's 0.42% on a smaller base, meaning Atlanta is actually getting beat on net migration by a Midwest city; its in-migration rate is about on par with Columbus, Ohio, another healthy Midwest metropolis......

More at the link. I don't think it's the end of Atlanta. The slow down in growth can help the city beef up its infrastructure for those already there.

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More at the link. I don't think it's the end of Atlanta. The slow down in growth can help the city beef up its infrastructure for those already there.

I don't think it's the end, either. Houston endured far more difficult times in the mid- and late-80's and yet ultimately pulled through.

I do think that they're in for slower long-term growth, however, because frankly I don't know that their infrastructure situation can be made very much better. MARTA is not in good financial shape, their freeway system is going to be very difficult to improve upon, there are very real constraints on Atlanta's water supply, and weather patterns contribute most significantly to their pollution problems (particularly with respect to particulate matter).

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More at the link. I don't think it's the end of Atlanta. The slow down in growth can help the city beef up its infrastructure for those already there.

The author doesn't even think it's the end of Atlanta. It's just a sensationalist title designed to drive more web traffic.

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The author doesn't even think it's the end of Atlanta. It's just a sensationalist title designed to drive more web traffic.

Okay? Why does that matter? It's a good article, that points to some of the problems in Atlanta.

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Okay? Why does that matter? It's a good article, that points to some of the problems in Atlanta.

Agreed. I find it interesting though that many of the problems cited in the article for causing the slowdown in Atlanta are the things that people in this forum identify as areas where Houston has failed to follow the example of cities like Atlanta.

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Ugh

Why ugh? Is it that terrible that Houston took a different path than Atlanta and that there are merits to that approach? Houston is Houston. Atlanta is Atlanta. Two different cities - two different ways of approaching growth. Neither one has all the answers.

Atlanta is a nice city, but don't delude yourself into thinking that they don't have their share of issues.

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