PapillionWyngs Posted September 8, 2008 Share Posted September 8, 2008 NHC has been almost dead-on with the hurricanes this season from this far out. Ike will be either left or right of us, but not by much.So what does that mean to those of us living in the evacuation zip codes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sheeats Posted September 9, 2008 Share Posted September 9, 2008 More bad news...Hurricane ike is now back over water and theres a high that well determine where it goes.The high is strenghting and this means that it has a more likely chance of hitting the Texas Coast.Also if it does hit the Texas Coast and if the Houston area does'nt even be directly hitted by this storm, we will most likely be on the "Dirty Side" of it. Cmputer Models.... ^^^^^ Link: http://www.hurricane-models.com/ I'm sorry, but that looks like something my nephew did in MS Paint. ...okay, I've got my serious face back on now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1fd Posted September 9, 2008 Share Posted September 9, 2008 Here's another page on forecast models:http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtmlThanks for the link it was an interesting read, but I was hoping for something a little less weather technical and a little more computer technical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westguy Posted September 9, 2008 Share Posted September 9, 2008 New trend: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
20thStDad Posted September 9, 2008 Share Posted September 9, 2008 I appreciate the models, they keep us on our toes and thinking about preparation. But the problem is that it's too early. All of those models point south, yes, but one change in what it's doing and they'll all point further north. For instance, those same models all pointed at us yesterday, at LA 2 days ago. See what I mean? I'm not saying they are useless, but right now we know what we know. It's nice to know general (large) areas, like whether Mexico needs to be worried versus MS/AL. Past that it's like picking stocks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trae Posted September 9, 2008 Author Share Posted September 9, 2008 I appreciate the models, they keep us on our toes and thinking about preparation. But the problem is that it's too early. All of those models point south, yes, but one change in what it's doing and they'll all point further north. For instance, those same models all pointed at us yesterday, at LA 2 days ago. See what I mean? I'm not saying they are useless, but right now we know what we know. It's nice to know general (large) areas, like whether Mexico needs to be worried versus MS/AL. Past that it's like picking stocks.Yeah, but like you said, LA two days ago. It is getting closer to this storm's landfall, so it's crunch time now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNiche Posted September 9, 2008 Share Posted September 9, 2008 Yeah, but like you said, LA two days ago. It is getting closer to this storm's landfall, so it's crunch time now.No. It is not crunch time. Stop trying to make people panic and feel uncomfortable. The media have a profit motive; what's your excuse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trae Posted September 9, 2008 Author Share Posted September 9, 2008 No. It is not crunch time. Stop trying to make people panic and feel uncomfortable. The media have a profit motive; what's your excuse?Crunch time, as in, the closer a hurricane is to landfall, the better the track is.Anyway, this is my last response to you. You go on ignore. Everything I say, you have some crap to say back. It's stupid.Ahh, your posts now say this:You have chosen to ignore all posts from: TheNiche. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crunchtastic Posted September 9, 2008 Share Posted September 9, 2008 No. It is not crunch time. Stop trying to make people panic and feel uncomfortable. The media have a profit motive; what's your excuse? au contraire, it's always crunch time for some of us. next year, I'm going to get some plywood cut and have it ready. Question, how many haifers are actually prepared to board up windows? If so, how close to the coast are you? As a child in Friendswood, we never boarded. I'm weighing it because my house has many windows, and the front two rooms have beautiful original oak and mahogany floorboards I would hate to lose. I think I've just answered my own question. I have a potentially disgusting projectile in my front yard (a porta potty). Should high winds send it through the front windows, could I make a claim on the contractor for not securing it? It's outside my gate, on the strip of grass between the sidewalk and the street. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PapillionWyngs Posted September 9, 2008 Share Posted September 9, 2008 Yeah, but like you said, LA two days ago. It is getting closer to this storm's landfall, so it's crunch time now.Crunch time for what? We evacuated for Rita, and for what? I just don't trust the media any more.I was here for Carla,Alicia and we left for Rita, and we should have stayed put. This time, staying put! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolBuddy06 Posted September 9, 2008 Share Posted September 9, 2008 So what does that mean to those of us living in the evacuation zip codes?It means that you might have to evacuate. Don't plan to leave when everybody is leaving because the roads will be jammed. Get some supplies. Don't go moving the whole Walmart into your pantry. I only make sure we have enough for 3/4 days, in hurricane mode that will go for 6/7 days. I always plan to leave 12 hrs or less to when a storm is making a landfall. That way you're pretty sure it is coming your way and the roads will be free. We're probably the only couple in the subdivision that didn't leave for Rita. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trae Posted September 9, 2008 Author Share Posted September 9, 2008 Crunch time for what? We evacuated for Rita, and for what? I just don't trust the media any more.I was here for Carla,Alicia and we left for Rita, and we should have stayed put. This time, staying put!It jogged at the last minute. This year, the forecasts have been better. CoolBuddy06 said it best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedScare Posted September 9, 2008 Share Posted September 9, 2008 I just don't trust the media any more.The media serves a valuable purpose. If not for them, you may have been forced to take personal responsibility for your own decision to leave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark F. Barnes Posted September 9, 2008 Share Posted September 9, 2008 Can't blame the media for the panic of Rita. There was a huge knee jerk reaction in the wake of Katrina. Everyone saw firsthand what happens when you wait to late to leave. Harris County's evac plan was totally out of date, and the local OEM was not prepared whatsoever. Without the Media you have zero warning, until it's too late. NOLA got caught with their pants down with Katrina, and in a sense Harris County did with Rita. It exposed just how inadequate the OEM was in case of a real emergency, and how misinformed people were to the evac plans in place, and how out of date they were. If Rita would have hit Houston and come up the ship channel the way it did the Sabine river, it would have been a tragedy unseen in years. The media serves it's purpose. You just have to be able to judge for yourselves how to react to what they give you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sifuwong Posted September 9, 2008 Share Posted September 9, 2008 This storm got me worried over the weekend. Got all my supplies already. Looks like it is coming towards Houston/Galveston at this point. The cone of uncertainty is pretty wide right now. Hopefully, by Wednesday, we will get a much clearer picture of where it is heading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNiche Posted September 9, 2008 Share Posted September 9, 2008 Crunch time, as in, the closer a hurricane is to landfall, the better the track is.I thought he meant crunch time as in 1. a critical moment or period (as near the end of a game) when decisive action is needed (Merriam-Webster), 2. When people, companies, etc, have to make an important decision that will have a considerable effect on their future... (UsingEnglish.com), 3. A critical period of time during which it is necessary to work hard and fast (Wiktionary), 4. The interval of time immediately before a project is due, when it becomes apparent that the schedule has slipped and everyone is going to have to work like dogs to try to complete the project in time. Crunch time usually occurs during the period between the next-to-last scheduled milestone (prior to which everyone was able to delude themselves tht the schedule had NOT slipped) and the final deadline for delivery (Urban Dictionary), 5. a deadline/the last minute (Urban Dictionary), 6. What you say to a women before laying down a serious smashing (Urban Dictionary), or 7. An effort by an Austrailian non-profit to get citizens to mail them samples of their poo. (It's Crunch Time).None of the above apply any more today than they did yesterday.Anyway, this is my last response to you. Your ass goes on ignore. Everything I say, you have some crap to say back. It's stupid.Ignoring someone on HAIF is a lot like being an ostrich. Placing one's head in the sand doesn't mean predators won't attack them and eat them for lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
infinite_jim Posted September 9, 2008 Share Posted September 9, 2008 I don't think he will see that response Niche..Ignoring people is the most powerful weapon on a forum even you cannot debate thatedit: As far the Rita panic is concerned, those folks are the definition of sheeple Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedScare Posted September 9, 2008 Share Posted September 9, 2008 I thought he meant crunch time as in 1. a critical moment or period (as near the end of a game) when decisive action is needed (Merriam-Webster), 2. When people, companies, etc, have to make an important decision that will have a considerable effect on their future... (UsingEnglish.com), 3. A critical period of time during which it is necessary to work hard and fast (Wiktionary), 4. The interval of time immediately before a project is due, when it becomes apparent that the schedule has slipped and everyone is going to have to work like dogs to try to complete the project in time. Crunch time usually occurs during the period between the next-to-last scheduled milestone (prior to which everyone was able to delude themselves tht the schedule had NOT slipped) and the final deadline for delivery (Urban Dictionary), 5. a deadline/the last minute (Urban Dictionary), 6. What you say to a women before laying down a serious smashing (Urban Dictionary), or 7. An effort by an Austrailian non-profit to get citizens to mail them samples of their poo. (It's Crunch Time). Maybe for the next definition, you could do "insufferable". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subdude Posted September 9, 2008 Share Posted September 9, 2008 No. It is not crunch time. Stop trying to make people panic and feel uncomfortable. The media have a profit motive; what's your excuse?Knock it off. I would rather not see half the topics on HAIF degenerate to sniping between you and some other member. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolBuddy06 Posted September 9, 2008 Share Posted September 9, 2008 Can't blame the media for the panic of Rita. There was a huge knee jerk reaction in the wake of Katrina. Everyone saw firsthand what happens when you wait to late to leave. Harris County's evac plan was totally out of date, and the local OEM was not prepared whatsoever. Without the Media you have zero warning, until it's too late. NOLA got caught with their pants down with Katrina, and in a sense Harris County did with Rita. It exposed just how inadequate the OEM was in case of a real emergency, and how misinformed people were to the evac plans in place, and how out of date they were. If Rita would have hit Houston and come up the ship channel the way it did the Sabine river, it would have been a tragedy unseen in years. The media serves it's purpose. You just have to be able to judge for yourselves how to react to what they give you.Well said. I don't judge the media or the city with Rita. All the wrong factors were at play then. the media is doing a great job pre hurricane, most people just don't know/remember that it is a forecast. It updates about every 8 hours and may have changed by then.What I don't like about the media is how they hype wimpy storms after they pass standing in muddy waters and all, showing 'HOME FOR SALE' sign knoked down by Edouard. But that's a topic for another day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJones Posted September 9, 2008 Share Posted September 9, 2008 You people do realize that you are arguing over the predictions of weathermen that can barely tell us if it will rain or not on any given day in Houston? Besides, Ike is gonna hit Brownsville or Mexico, is that west enough for ya ? Computer models are even MORE incompetent, that is why they give 10 possibilities. You got a better chance at winning a lottery scratch off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedScare Posted September 9, 2008 Share Posted September 9, 2008 You people do realize that you are arguing over the predictions of weathermen that can barely tell us if it will rain or not on any given day in Houston? Besides, Ike is gonna hit Brownsville or Mexico, is that west enough for ya ? Computer models are even MORE incompetent, that is why they give 10 possibilities. You got a better chance at winning a lottery scratch off.Those are not 10 possibilities. They are the results of 6 different computer programs, each of which places varying degrees of emphasis on weather conditions and patterns. The hurricane forecast is the result of the human discussion of those computer results. So, neither is necessarily worse than the other, as the forecast is a combination of all of them.The forecasters routinely warn that 4 and 5 day forecasts can be extremely unreliable, with the storm track varying up to 300 miles to either side of the center line. In fact, if anyone e-mouthing on this thread had bothered to read the forecaster's discussion (copied below), they would have seen his strong warning that the 4-5 day forecast may change dramatically. Therefore, TJ may be correct that the storm hits Brownsville. Of course, TJ may also be wrong because it may hit Beaumont. Once we are in the 3 day cone, we'll be a little more certain who's going to get screwed.AS ALWAYS...IT CANNOT BEOVEREMPHASIZED THAT ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON 4 AND 5 DAY FORECASTPOINTS SINCE THESE CAN BE SUBJECT TO SUBSTANTIAL ERRORS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolBuddy06 Posted September 9, 2008 Share Posted September 9, 2008 All models now have us out of Ike. So we should be home and dry. Mexico needs to worry though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HtownWxBoy Posted September 9, 2008 Share Posted September 9, 2008 I am beginning to think Ike may actually go south of us score! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trae Posted September 9, 2008 Author Share Posted September 9, 2008 score! Good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westguy Posted September 9, 2008 Share Posted September 9, 2008 score! There's still a long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedScare Posted September 9, 2008 Share Posted September 9, 2008 Good call. Apparently, it is just going to sit on Havana for the next 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HtownWxBoy Posted September 9, 2008 Share Posted September 9, 2008 Apparently, it is just going to sit on Havana for the next 5 days. What makes you think that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westguy Posted September 9, 2008 Share Posted September 9, 2008 What makes you think that? They hadn't updated the plots, so the image was without lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedScare Posted September 9, 2008 Share Posted September 9, 2008 What makes you think that? Mine was blank until just a minute ago. Now, it is showing up, rendering my joke rather awkward. I was listening to a forecaster on the way home. In spite of the computer runs going through Brownsville, he said most of the forecasters still believe that the storm will make landfall somewhere between Corpus and SW LA. Apparently, even though most of the computers are not picking it up, they believe that the trough will cause a northern turn, similar to HWRF or UKMET. That UKMET path would be rather disastrous for Houston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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