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Hurricane Ike

Trae

By Trae
in Hurricane Ike 2008

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wxman

wxman

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So my screen name isn't wxman for nothing. The wx stands for weather. Here's what we know...

Unlike the lapel pins of the 50's that said "I like Ike," you may not like this one. Instead of pins that read Ike and Dick, you'd better make one that says I got Dicked by Ike. Ike is coming folks, better prepare. Ike is currently being steered by the upper-level wind pattern. It is an H5 ridge (500 millibars about 18,000 ft. up) that is keeping Ike between 260 to 270 degrees (west). According to computer models, a trough may sweep through the central U.S. weakening this trough. However, it won't completely bust through it and therefore will not assist in the tug to the north...hints a general wnw track all the way to Texas. Below are a couple of computer models:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/track...0809_model.html

http://www.stormpulse.com/hurricane-ike-2008

http://img377.imageshack.us/img377/8027/al092008bw5.png

With that being shown, it is important to remember that the cone is much larger. 2/3 of the time, the hurricane can be found in that cone. That means that 33% of the time, the hurricane will fall outside of that cone...which the track Ike is on, it is already going to miss its forecast point to the south. It is prudent at this time that residents of the upper-Texas coast begin preparing for a major hurricane strike. The state as of now is in emergency mode and has started the 120-hour countdown to landfall. I can tell you that the state is preparing for a Category 4 or 5 hurricane by Saturday at 3am. LARGE SCALE EVACUATIONS could be possible starting as early as tomorrow for special needs folks first. This is NOT set in stone.

State Of Operations for the State of Texas:

ftp://ftp.txdps.state.tx.us/dem/sitrep/Hu...708%20(GOV).pdf

I have a lot to say, but unfortunately I am very very busy. I'll try and keep you updated as I know more. If you have any weather questions, please feel free to ask. I'll be checking in periodically.

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HtownWxBoy

HtownWxBoy

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Channel 13 has Ike right off of Galveston by 1am Saturday morning. Any models that will decrease the likelihood of Wayne Dolcefino hanging onto the side of a lightpost are not being shown at this time.

:lol:

So my screen name isn't wxman for nothing. The wx stands for weather. Here's what we know...

Same here. :)

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OkieEric

OkieEric

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I can tell you that the state is preparing for a Category 4 or 5 hurricane by Saturday at 3am. LARGE SCALE EVACUATIONS could be possible starting as early as tomorrow for special needs folks first. This is NOT set in stone.

Well, crap... How are they coming up with Category 4/5 vs the 3 in the official forecast? I realize that intensity is difficult to forecast, but just curious about the assumptions. I don't like seeing the word "catastrophic" in that last link

Also, I think one of the cable channels (weather channel?) once had a special about what would happen if a major hurricane struck the Houston area. I think it was even discussed on here... Is there a good resource online describing the kinds of winds and damage Houston proper could expect from say, a direct hit by a Category 4?

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HtownWxBoy

HtownWxBoy

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Well, crap... How are they coming up with Category 4/5 vs the 3 in the official forecast? I realize that intensity is difficult to forecast, but just curious about the assumptions. I don't like seeing the word "catastrophic" in that last link

Also, I think one of the cable channels (weather channel?) once had a special about what would happen if a major hurricane struck the Houston area. I think it was even discussed on here... Is there a good resource online describing the kinds of winds and damage Houston proper could expect from say, a direct hit by a Category 4?

If you are forecasting a Category 3 it is best to prepare for a 4 or 5 and hope for a 1 or 2.... hurricanes can be very unpredictable and with the very warm waters of the Gulf rapid intensification is a possibility.

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wxman

wxman

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Well, crap... How are they coming up with Category 4/5 vs the 3 in the official forecast? I realize that intensity is difficult to forecast, but just curious about the assumptions. I don't like seeing the word "catastrophic" in that last link

Also, I think one of the cable channels (weather channel?) once had a special about what would happen if a major hurricane struck the Houston area. I think it was even discussed on here... Is there a good resource online describing the kinds of winds and damage Houston proper could expect from say, a direct hit by a Category 4?

Intensity forecasts are nothing more than educated guesses. The error is as much as 25mph either way. That means if the official forecast calls for a 100kt storm (115mph Cat 3) then you prepare for a Category 4. But just the opposite is true, it could be as weak as a 2.

If a category 4 were to move in just west of Galveston as a Cat. 4, the right front quadrant would move right over downtown Houston. There is a formula for wind reduction that has slipped my mind as of now, but for every 10 miles inland, a hurricane loses a certain percentage of its strength. It is safe to say that places as far in as Conroe could see winds of 100 mph...especially in gusts.

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HtownWxBoy

HtownWxBoy

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Intensity forecasts are nothing more than educated guesses. The error is as much as 25mph either way. That means if the official forecast calls for a 100kt storm (115mph Cat 3) then you prepare for a Category 4. But just the opposite is true, it could be as weak as a 2.

If a category 4 were to move in just west of Galveston as a Cat. 4, the right front quadrant would move right over downtown Houston. There is a formula for wind reduction that has slipped my mind as of now, but for every 10 miles inland, a hurricane loses a certain percentage of its strength. It is safe to say that places as far in as Conroe could see winds of 100 mph...especially in gusts.

You also have to take into account the speed of the storm... a hurricane moving inland across Houston at 15 mph would bring stronger winds to say Conroe than that same storm pushing inland at 5 mph.

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wxman

wxman

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You also have to take into account the speed of the storm... a hurricane moving inland across Houston at 15 mph would bring stronger winds to say Conroe than that same storm pushing inland at 5 mph.

Agreed. But I think that affects more rainfall than anything. If you divide the the forward movement of the storm by 100, you'll get the amount of rainfall that can be expected. It's a pretty good rule of thumb.

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wxman

wxman

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It appears it may be starting its 270 degree to 280 degree turn to the wnw. I'm not sure and I'm going to need a few more satellite images to confirm, but we may finally have a wnw movement now. We'll see. It's VERY close to the water. As you can see in the microwave image, the inner core is still strong but not defined. Does that make sense? It appears as though the center is beginning to form an outter eyewall indicative by the yellow banding beginning to reappear.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...sBy12hr_21.html

What's also interesting is that Gustav hit west of N.O. a day after the anniversary of Katrina. Now Ike is headed for the Texas coast very near the anniversary of Rita!

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HtownWxBoy

HtownWxBoy

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It appears it may be starting its 270 degree to 280 degree turn to the wnw. I'm not sure and I'm going to need a few more satellite images to confirm, but we may finally have a wnw movement now. We'll see. It's VERY close to the water.

It does look like it may be making a turn to the WNW... it could just be a wobble, though... time will tell.

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wxman

wxman

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I am beginning to think Ike may actually go south of us... maybe towards Corpus or Victoria.

There's no way I'm ready to make that call. With as a large of a storm as being predicted, the affects will be spread out. EVERYBODY on the Texas coast needs to be ready for a major hurricane by Saturday. It has been my experience that hurricanes tend to track east of the forecast position as they close in. Case in point--Rita.

GFS, HWRF, GFDL, UKMET are computer models. For instance the GFS is the Global Forecast System. Yes, the NHC is the National Hurricane Center. I apologize. Acronyms are way easier. If you need help with those, please let us know!

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HtownWxBoy

HtownWxBoy

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There's no way I'm ready to make that call. With as a large of a storm as being predicted, the affects will be spread out. EVERYBODY on the Texas coast needs to be ready for a major hurricane by Saturday. It has been my experience that hurricanes tend to track east of the forecast position as they close in. Case in point--Rita.

That is so true!

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sevfiv

sevfiv

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Please help out the acronym deficient among us...

What is GFS? Does NHC = National Hurrican Center?

GFS = Global Forecast System

other are defined here:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?word=gfs

and yeah, NHC is the National Hurricane Center

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

edit: oops, already answered above...i'm slow on the reply button :)

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jm1fd

jm1fd

Posted
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GFS, HWRF, GFDL, UKMET are computer models. For instance the GFS is the Global Forecast System. Yes, the NHC is the National Hurricane Center. I apologize. Acronyms are way easier. If you need help with those, please let us know!

Is there a web site that gives a technical summary of all these different models such as when they were developed, what sorts of parameters they're initialized with, how long the runs take, what sort of hardware they're run on, what languages they're built in, etc?

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Chamo

Chamo

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NHC has been almost dead-on with the hurricanes this season from this far out. Ike will be either left or right of us, but not by much.

Well, they had Ike hitting Miami dead on just 3-4 days ago....

Too early to call in my opinion. If it keeps its current movement speed to the WNW, I think it will go south of us, if slows down as expected, then will be very close to us, but if it suffers a big slowdown, then we can expect another Rita.

I will be watching this one from Florida since I already had plans to go there this Wednesday. I'll just extend my stay a little bit.

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Bayou City

Bayou City

Posted
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More bad news...

Hurricane ike is now back over water and theres a high that well determine where it goes.The high is strenghting and this means that it has a more likely chance of hitting the Texas Coast.Also if it does hit the Texas Coast and if the Houston area does'nt even be directly hitted by this storm, we will most likely be on the "Dirty Side" of it. :(

Computer Models....

Ikestrack.gif

^^^^^

Link:

http://www.hurricane-models.com/

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