westguy Posted September 6, 2008 Share Posted September 6, 2008 Houston's not out of the crosshairs of Ike yet, but it's looking more like New Orleans might have to go through another evacuation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westguy Posted September 7, 2008 Share Posted September 7, 2008 Ike's regained Category 4 quickly. The NHC is going to have to shift the track towards the western Gulf of Mexico (and Houston) because its hard to predict when the hurricane is going to make its northward turn. We could have a hurricane here next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westguy Posted September 7, 2008 Share Posted September 7, 2008 Ike will be a large hurricane in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico. The models have unanimously shifted to the west, and NHC has revised their track to point at Houston. Editor, can you move this topic up since it is a real threat to this city? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trae Posted September 7, 2008 Author Share Posted September 7, 2008 It's looking less like a NOLA problem, and more of a Lake Charles-Beaumont-Houston-Corpus Christi problem. In other words, we don't know anything yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cla Posted September 7, 2008 Share Posted September 7, 2008 At this point it is way to early to count out nola or anywhere else. If you research the nhc.noaa.gov site you will learn that the 3 day models are really about as far as you should really look - the 4th and 5th day on the computer models are much less predictable (notice how the track on the 4th and 5th day is dashed and has a different "cone" around it). At this point, the 3 day track places it just at the entrance of the GOM. Meaning everyone from Florida to the Yucatan should be watchful.But I am going to go to bed tonight and wish it all just disappears. If I've been a good girl, then there will be no storm tomorrow. If I've been a bad girl, then, well, I deserve a few lashes :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNiche Posted September 7, 2008 Share Posted September 7, 2008 It's looking less like a NOLA problem, and more of a Lake Charles-Beaumont-Houston-Corpus Christi problem. In other words, we don't know anything yet.Trae, I would've thought that you would've figured out by now that you aren't qualified to be weatherman.Your biggest shortcoming is a lack of understanding of statistical concpepts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PapillionWyngs Posted September 7, 2008 Share Posted September 7, 2008 A seasoned meteorologist told me that the only way to accurately predict where hurricanes were going was to check the barometric pressure of the areas likely to be hit. The one with the lowest barometric pressure would be the one to get the hurricane. Has worked like a charm so far! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedScare Posted September 7, 2008 Share Posted September 7, 2008 Good morning, Mr. President. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trae Posted September 7, 2008 Author Share Posted September 7, 2008 Trae, I would've thought that you would've figured out by now that you aren't qualified to be weatherman.Your biggest shortcoming is a lack of understanding of statistical concpepts.What the hell are you talking about? That cone of uncertainty and computer models (mostly computer models) covers the cities I named more now, than NOLA. You make zero sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
editor Posted September 7, 2008 Share Posted September 7, 2008 Calm down, boys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedScare Posted September 7, 2008 Share Posted September 7, 2008 Calm down, boys. Yeah, this is a weather thread, not a politics thread. Interestingly, the statistical wind probabilities on the NHC website still show a higher probability of tropical force winds in Pensacola and New Orleans than the Texas coast. However, a closer look at the chart shows the probabilities within certain time frames. Since the Texas coast is farther away, the NHC is not calculating the odds of storm force winds outside of 120 hours. As the Texas coast is included in the 5 day forecast, look for the numbers to increase, and likely exceed those of the northern Gulf Coast. In the spirit of bipartisanship, I declare BOTH of you correct. Source? Why certainly! Wind Speed Probabilities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1fd Posted September 7, 2008 Share Posted September 7, 2008 The latest track is not looking good for Texas at this point, but we're still ~1 week away from landfall. Things can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedScare Posted September 7, 2008 Share Posted September 7, 2008 The latest track is not looking good for Texas at this point, but we're still ~1 week away from landfall. Things can change.From the NHC forecast discussion...IKE IS BEING STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERNATLANTIC SOUTHWESTWARD OVER FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH ANINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 265/13. IKE SHOULD MOVE GENERALLYWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARDSTHE WEST-NORTHWEST. IN 2-3 DAYS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVETHROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES CAUSING SOME WEAKENING OF THERIDGE AND A REDUCTION IKE'S FORWARD SPEED. MOST OF THE DYNAMICALMODELS FORECAST THE TROUGH TO BYPASS THE CYCLONE RESULTING IN ACONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. ONLY THE HWRF MODEL SHOWSENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS MATERIALIZING TO TURN IKE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.WHILE THIS SOLUTION IS POSSIBLE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS MORETOWARD THE REMAINING DYNAMICAL MODELS AND IS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OFTHE MODEL CONSENSUS. IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO ANTICIPATE WHICHAREAS ALONG THE GULF COAST COULD BE IMPACTED BY THIS SYSTEM.That sounds like weatherspeak for "We kinda think it's heading towards Texas, but it's to early to run for the hills". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedScare Posted September 7, 2008 Share Posted September 7, 2008 Houston has now entered the Cone of Uncertainty. Da Da Dun Duhhh! http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_a...?large#contents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
editor Posted September 7, 2008 Share Posted September 7, 2008 A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE...Darned ham radio types always causing trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westguy Posted September 7, 2008 Share Posted September 7, 2008 The forecast track looks a lot like this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
editor Posted September 7, 2008 Share Posted September 7, 2008 It's interesting how some hurricanes can cut across the narrow width of Cuba and lose lots of strength while others can run the entire length of the island and act like nothing happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNiche Posted September 7, 2008 Share Posted September 7, 2008 From the NHC forecast discussion...IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO ANTICIPATE WHICH AREAS ALONG THE GULF COAST COULD BE IMPACTED BY THIS SYSTEM.That sounds like weatherspeak for "We kinda think it's heading towards Texas, but it's to early to run for the hills".Sounds a lot like what I was telling Trae last night. They don't know where its going yet. Uncertainties are still ridiculously high when you consider how much difference even 50 miles can make at landfall.Are some areas at higer risk than others? Yes. But at this point, the cone of uncertainty is so wide that even the relevently-small stretch of coast with the highest landfall probabilities may not exceed 10%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
houstonmacbro Posted September 7, 2008 Share Posted September 7, 2008 Houston has now entered the Cone of Uncertainty.Da Da Dun Duhhh! http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_a...?large#contents Man! You goto sleep overnight and the whole world changes. I thought Ike was headed up the eastern seaboard...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark F. Barnes Posted September 7, 2008 Share Posted September 7, 2008 here we go again, this one will cost you 50 cents at the pump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westguy Posted September 7, 2008 Share Posted September 7, 2008 here we go again, this one will cost you 50 cents at the pump.NHC knows there's little chance it won't head to the NW Gulf (ie Houston), so I think that's why they are keeping it vague. Ike's expected to grow into a giant, so that will put a lot of areas under hurricane warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westguy Posted September 8, 2008 Share Posted September 8, 2008 Ike's new track is a pretty straight shot to Houston. Alicia was a midget storm, so prepare for darkness for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolBuddy06 Posted September 8, 2008 Share Posted September 8, 2008 Getting scary y'all Which way to hunker now? Up, down, sideways.... http://www.usatoday.com/weather/storms/200...na-friday_N.htm you might have to hunker out of Houston if this angry Ike keeps it's path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark F. Barnes Posted September 8, 2008 Share Posted September 8, 2008 Hurricane party anyone? We got started already this weekend...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trae Posted September 8, 2008 Author Share Posted September 8, 2008 Ike's new track is a pretty straight shot to Houston. Alicia was a midget storm, so prepare for darkness for a while.Only about two tracks. The others have it going to Lake Charles and two to New Orleans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HtownWxBoy Posted September 8, 2008 Share Posted September 8, 2008 Only about two tracks. The others have it going to Lake Charles and two to New Orleans.I've got access to a large number of models... they are all going right now anywhere from Corpus to Lafayette... Houston is in the middle of that... it's going to be an interesting week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark F. Barnes Posted September 8, 2008 Share Posted September 8, 2008 Yeah it's still early, it's going to depend on it's tragectory once it clears Cuba, and what it's strength is. It will be a little more predictable once it's in the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
houstonmacbro Posted September 8, 2008 Share Posted September 8, 2008 I've got access to a large number of models... they are all going right now anywhere from Corpus to Lafayette... Houston is in the middle of that... it's going to be an interesting week!I think we are jumping the gun on this. Remember Gustav was headed to Houston too and it veered north into Louisiana.Let's give this some time and see what develops in the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
20thStDad Posted September 8, 2008 Share Posted September 8, 2008 Speaking of Cuba, that place has gotten wasted with storms this year. I don't watch news, but I haven't heard much about how they are faring. Right now Ike is basically driving the length of it, that has to be doing some damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HtownWxBoy Posted September 8, 2008 Share Posted September 8, 2008 I think we are jumping the gun on this. Remember Gustav was headed to Houston too and it veered north into Louisiana.Let's give this some time and see what develops in the next couple of days.Oh I'm not saying it's coming to Houston... just saying where the models are currently pointing too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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