Jump to content

Hurricane Ike


Trae

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Ike's regained Category 4 quickly. The NHC is going to have to shift the track towards the western Gulf of Mexico (and Houston) because its hard to predict when the hurricane is going to make its northward turn. We could have a hurricane here next week.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ike will be a large hurricane in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico. The models have unanimously shifted to the west, and NHC has revised their track to point at Houston.

at200809_model090609d.gif

Editor, can you move this topic up since it is a real threat to this city?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

At this point it is way to early to count out nola or anywhere else. If you research the nhc.noaa.gov site you will learn that the 3 day models are really about as far as you should really look - the 4th and 5th day on the computer models are much less predictable (notice how the track on the 4th and 5th day is dashed and has a different "cone" around it). At this point, the 3 day track places it just at the entrance of the GOM. Meaning everyone from Florida to the Yucatan should be watchful.

But I am going to go to bed tonight and wish it all just disappears. If I've been a good girl, then there will be no storm tomorrow. If I've been a bad girl, then, well, I deserve a few lashes :-)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's looking less like a NOLA problem, and more of a Lake Charles-Beaumont-Houston-Corpus Christi problem. In other words, we don't know anything yet.

Trae, I would've thought that you would've figured out by now that you aren't qualified to be weatherman.

Your biggest shortcoming is a lack of understanding of statistical concpepts.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A seasoned meteorologist told me that the only way to accurately predict where hurricanes were going was to check the barometric pressure of the areas likely to be hit. The one with the lowest barometric pressure would be the one to get the hurricane. Has worked like a charm so far!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Trae, I would've thought that you would've figured out by now that you aren't qualified to be weatherman.

Your biggest shortcoming is a lack of understanding of statistical concpepts.

What the hell are you talking about? That cone of uncertainty and computer models (mostly computer models) covers the cities I named more now, than NOLA. You make zero sense.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Calm down, boys.

:lol:

Yeah, this is a weather thread, not a politics thread.

;)

Interestingly, the statistical wind probabilities on the NHC website still show a higher probability of tropical force winds in Pensacola and New Orleans than the Texas coast. However, a closer look at the chart shows the probabilities within certain time frames. Since the Texas coast is farther away, the NHC is not calculating the odds of storm force winds outside of 120 hours. As the Texas coast is included in the 5 day forecast, look for the numbers to increase, and likely exceed those of the northern Gulf Coast.

In the spirit of bipartisanship, I declare BOTH of you correct. :)

Source?

Why certainly!

Wind Speed Probabilities

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The latest track is not looking good for Texas at this point, but we're still ~1 week away from landfall. Things can change.

From the NHC forecast discussion...

IKE IS BEING STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN

ATLANTIC SOUTHWESTWARD OVER FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AN

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 265/13. IKE SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY

WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARDS

THE WEST-NORTHWEST. IN 2-3 DAYS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE

THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES CAUSING SOME WEAKENING OF THE

RIDGE AND A REDUCTION IKE'S FORWARD SPEED. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL

MODELS FORECAST THE TROUGH TO BYPASS THE CYCLONE RESULTING IN A

CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. ONLY THE HWRF MODEL SHOWS

ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS MATERIALIZING TO TURN IKE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.

WHILE THIS SOLUTION IS POSSIBLE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS MORE

TOWARD THE REMAINING DYNAMICAL MODELS AND IS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF

THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO ANTICIPATE WHICH

AREAS ALONG THE GULF COAST COULD BE IMPACTED BY THIS SYSTEM.

That sounds like weatherspeak for "We kinda think it's heading towards Texas, but it's to early to run for the hills".

Link to comment
Share on other sites

From the NHC forecast discussion...
IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO ANTICIPATE WHICH AREAS ALONG THE GULF COAST COULD BE IMPACTED BY THIS SYSTEM.

That sounds like weatherspeak for "We kinda think it's heading towards Texas, but it's to early to run for the hills".

Sounds a lot like what I was telling Trae last night. They don't know where its going yet. Uncertainties are still ridiculously high when you consider how much difference even 50 miles can make at landfall.

Are some areas at higer risk than others? Yes. But at this point, the cone of uncertainty is so wide that even the relevently-small stretch of coast with the highest landfall probabilities may not exceed 10%.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

here we go again, this one will cost you 50 cents at the pump.

NHC knows there's little chance it won't head to the NW Gulf (ie Houston), so I think that's why they are keeping it vague. Ike's expected to grow into a giant, so that will put a lot of areas under hurricane warnings.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ike's new track is a pretty straight shot to Houston. Alicia was a midget storm, so prepare for darkness for a while.

Only about two tracks. The others have it going to Lake Charles and two to New Orleans.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Only about two tracks. The others have it going to Lake Charles and two to New Orleans.

I've got access to a large number of models... they are all going right now anywhere from Corpus to Lafayette... Houston is in the middle of that... it's going to be an interesting week!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I've got access to a large number of models... they are all going right now anywhere from Corpus to Lafayette... Houston is in the middle of that... it's going to be an interesting week!

I think we are jumping the gun on this. Remember Gustav was headed to Houston too and it veered north into Louisiana.

Let's give this some time and see what develops in the next couple of days.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think we are jumping the gun on this. Remember Gustav was headed to Houston too and it veered north into Louisiana.

Let's give this some time and see what develops in the next couple of days.

Oh I'm not saying it's coming to Houston... just saying where the models are currently pointing too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.


All of the HAIF
None of the ads!
HAIF+
Just
$5!


×
×
  • Create New...