RedScare Posted August 18, 2007 Share Posted August 18, 2007 It's starting to look more and more that Dean will stay south of us... putting into Mexico or into the lower Texas coast. It's slowing down which is one of the biggest things needed to keep it south of us. Of course it is still several days out and this could change a bit, but it's looking more and more likely that Dean will stay south of Houston.I can see why you think so, but the average 5 day error for the computer models in 2005 was 285 miles. The straight line distance from Freeport to Brownsville is only 247 miles (A direct hit on Houston would come up from Freeport). The NHC 5 day cone includes Houston, so I'm not planning any cookouts yet. Besides, I've seen so many of those storms take that wicked right turn that I am pretty well convinced that it is NOT going into Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Marty Posted August 18, 2007 Share Posted August 18, 2007 if you have any used milk containers, fill them with water. you can use them for extra water or put them in the freezer to have some ice blocks. also fill any ice chests with extra water. also a bucket comes in handy in case you need some water to flush toilets. i remember having to get water from outside to do this for one storm.I have 23, 2 liter soda bottle's in the stand up freezer. Tomorrow Ill start filling up all my ice chest's. I always stock pile non perishable goods you never know what can happen anytime of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNiche Posted August 18, 2007 Share Posted August 18, 2007 I can see why you think so, but the average 5 day error for the computer models in 2005 was 285 miles. The straight line distance from Freeport to Brownsville is only 247 miles (A direct hit on Houston would come up from Freeport). The NHC 5 day cone includes Houston, so I'm not planning any cookouts yet. Besides, I've seen so many of those storms take that wicked right turn that I am pretty well convinced that it is NOT going into Mexico.Not only is Red correct about the margin for error being pretty wide, even for the best model, but a hurricane isn't an isolated event. It impacts an area large enough that even if it misses you a bit, it can still be really bad. Let it not be forgotten that NO was on the weak side of the storm.I tend to have that "wicked right turn" bias, myself, btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OkieEric Posted August 18, 2007 Share Posted August 18, 2007 Unless you're talking about Beach City, you're probably ok in that area. The evacuation maps I've seen are based almost entirely on elevation, but distance from open water, the amount of open water, wind direction, and flood risk are also important to consider. Chambers County looks really really bad for storm surge, but if it gets hit with winds out of the north, east, or southeast, then Anahuac won't see a storm surge; if it gets hit with winds out of the west or especially southwest, Anahac gets wiped out.Also depends on how those trees are situated around your home and whether they're well-trimmed; the more leaves, the more surface area, the higher the likelihood of them being toppled. And of course, weak or dead branches are a big problem. On the other hand, if you've got a really dense canopy, all of the trees together can go a long way toward deflecting a lot of the wind at ground level and reducing the wind pressure exerted on any one tree. Thanks, Niche....I think I'm going to check the elevation on the place, but I know that it's got some distance from the coast. Hopefully this bugger will stay south Lord knows we don't need another evacuation which actually kills more people than the d$mn storm! I'm just a nervous nelly after several friends' properties were wiped out by storm surge in MS via Katrina Models are looking better for us tonight...though I have absolutely no confidence in them, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNiche Posted August 18, 2007 Share Posted August 18, 2007 I'm just a nervous nelly after several friends' properties were wiped out by storm surge in MS via KatrinaModels are looking better for us tonight...though I have absolutely no confidence in them, lolMS was on the powerful side of the storm, although considering where the media coverage was concentrated, you'd have no way of knowing it. And depending on where exactly your friends' property was, the surge could've been up to 32 feet high. ...but that was in Bay St. Louis, a place that is geographically doomed to having high storm surges.Galveston Bay is more forgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
texas911 Posted August 18, 2007 Share Posted August 18, 2007 I feel bad for all the Mediterranean houses in Houston that will have those lovely red tile roofs torn off in the high winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
musicman Posted August 18, 2007 Share Posted August 18, 2007 11news had a story that said some stores are already out of generatorsNo, you do not need to hoard food and water. You do not need insurance, either. I mean, I was here for Alicia, too, and my house did not blow down. Besides, even if the water became tainted, FEMA would bring you water. Why waste 5 bucks on a lousy case of water?LOLIt's starting to look more and more that Dean will stay south of us... putting into Mexico or into the lower Texas coast. It's slowing down which is one of the biggest things needed to keep it south of us. Of course it is still several days out and this could change a bit, but it's looking more and more likely that Dean will stay south of Houston.is your last name billingsley by chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
editor Posted August 18, 2007 Share Posted August 18, 2007 Activate it... it's fun! he he Well, now that Houston is (barely) in the five-day cone, I guess it's OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trae Posted August 18, 2007 Share Posted August 18, 2007 My dad said plywood was selling like hotcakes at Home Depot. He bought some flashlights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedScare Posted August 18, 2007 Share Posted August 18, 2007 Here are a few Hurricane Home Preparation sites, with some useful information on fortifying your home. Note that most of the suggestions are too time consuming and labor intensive to undertake 4 days before landfall. However, it can give you ideas to use before the next one, and can help you decide whether your home is up to the task. Note that those of you living in homes built with hurricane straps have about a 115 mph rated home. Remember that very few homes in Houston were hit with more than 75 mph winds during Alicia. Your only real concerns (other than flooding) would be to protect windows from storm debris. Look in your attic if you are not sure. You should see galvanized straps holding the rafters to the wall studs. For the rest of us.... General Home Hurricane Reinforcement Installing Plywood Hurricane Shutters PLYLOX Hurricane Clips Pros & Cons of Various Window Shutters Right about now, I am wondering why I spent the last 2 weekends building a new arbor for my deck instead of building those board and batten storm shutters I was talking about back in June. Oh, well. Assuming this one stays south of us, I'll get right on that next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
musicman Posted August 18, 2007 Share Posted August 18, 2007 Right about now, I am wondering why I spent the last 2 weekends building a new arbor for my deck instead of building those board and batten storm shutters I was talking about back in June. Oh, well. Assuming this one stays south of us, I'll get right on that next weekend. it's all about makin' the scare house party central. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedScare Posted August 18, 2007 Share Posted August 18, 2007 it's all about makin' the scare house party central.True. Right now, I'm looking for the perfect set of jalepeno lights to hang from the arbor. Hard to find. May have to just go with the Chili Peppers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Marty Posted August 19, 2007 Share Posted August 19, 2007 I am been sitting here with out power for the last 10 minutes my battery back up is beeping away. I usually get about 3 hours out of it.. see you never know what can happen. Some drunk must have hit a telephone pole on Aldine Westfield.Edit 2:48 am power back on. I heard siren's so something must have happened now back on topic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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