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Can the Boom Continue?

toxtethogrady

By toxtethogrady
in General Houston Discussions

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Naviguessor

Naviguessor

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Posted

The bust occurred because a decision made by OPEC to end the embargo. There isn't that kind of lever positioned over us now. Not going to say that there won't ever be another bust or that this boom won't level off. But just because we had one big boom before doesn't mean we will have another in the same way.

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UtterlyUrban

UtterlyUrban

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1981 was 33 years ago. Most people on this site aren't even that old. Anyway....Don't you think we 've grown and changed a bit sence then? Like every city in the U.S. God. Can we all agree to enter a new state of reality?

Sure we can enter a new state of reality. But is what we are experiencing now real or not?

The current local boom is being driven by one thing..... One..... Energy. Sure, folks come to houston to get great medical care at TMC and the port is also great. Both of those contribute to "local GDP" but they are not at the root of this boom. Energy is. If, as in 1983, the world energy markets (or North American energy markets.... Especially shale) sniffle, houston will get a cold. If the world markets get a cold, houston will get the flu.

There are a number of reasons I, or others, can give you that will show, that the energy boom is here to stay.... It is absolutely the new reality. I, or others, can also give you a dozen reasons to show you that the energy boom is not going to last and will end is bust.

The point that "most" folks on this board were not alive in 1980 (BTW, do you know "most" folks on this board???? "Most" means a majority. Perhaps you mean "many") is irrelevant. Booms and busts in the energy sector are historically common. The only question is when the next bust comes -- as one poster above suggests --- how bad will it be?

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HoustonIsHome

HoustonIsHome

Posted
Posted

I don't think the economy would tank as bad as in the early 80s because we are more stabilized right now. But an energy ding would echo across the economy. The might port right now is way more diversified than it was in the 80s but oil and its bi products still play a heft role in its stature.

Similarly the health industry blossoms based on a healthy population growth based on a healthy service industry growth based on a healthy industry job boom which is based on a healthy energy market.

Lawyers, engineers, scientists are all needed in great supply to feed the huge demand in manpower that the energy sector requires. All of these workers need food, housing and heath care which means a healthy energy sector creates more demand for housing and greatly supports our port and medical center.

Anyway, I don't see a mass exodus or a huge slow down poping up suddenly. I think that job loss shouldn't be too sharp and workers May be able to be reabsorbed.

Houston is becoming more diversified by the day. Biotechnology, Tech, Manufacturing and thus shipping, are all increasing.

What we need to do is take a bigger bite out of the logistics monster that comes from our very own port. Many many many jobs are shipped directly to DFW from our port. In fact DFW became the largest metro in Texas based on logistics. Healthy economies in other areas of Texas created steady growth in DFW. Over the last 100 years DFW has benefited from transporting cattle from S. TEXAS, Cotton from San Antonio and other areas, port exports and imports from Houston, produce from all over texas and Mexico, and people through its airport. We need to do more of our own handling and distribution.

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fernz

fernz

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This discussion is absurd. There's a reason they're called cycles. History has proved they always happen, and to pretend this time is different just because we're at the top of the cycle is insane.

We can debate whether it will be as sharp as previous ones or not, but the boom will stop, projects will get canceled, some buildings will sit mostly empty after completion, and some will even stop during construction. That's the nature of the beast.

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Triton

Triton

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This discussion is absurd. There's a reason they're called cycles. History has proved they always happen, and to pretend this time is different just because we're at the top of the cycle is insane.

We can debate whether it will be as sharp as previous ones or not, but the boom will stop, projects will get canceled, some buildings will sit mostly empty after completion, and some will even stop during construction. That's the nature of the beast.

Thank you.
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HoustonIsHome

HoustonIsHome

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http://www.houston.org/pdf/research/quickview/economy_at_a_glance.pdf

I noticed that Houston is the biggest exporting city... I really want to see the latest GDP numbers, the ones out now are a couple of years old, I predict 550 Billion baby!

This is most recent. It is for 2013:

2013 Metropolitan Area(MSA) Gross Product, $200 Billion+

New York $1.471 Trillion (19.8 million people)

Los Angeles $826.826 Billion (13.3 million people)

Chicago $590.248 Billion (9.5 million people)

Houston $517.367 Billion (6.3 million people)

Washington DC $463.925 Billion (6.0 million people)

Dallas $447.524 Billion (6.8 million people)

San Francisco $388.272 Billion (4.5 million people)

Philadelphia $383.401 Billion (6.0 million people)

Boston $370.769 Billion (4.6 million people)

Seattle $307.769 Billion (3.8 million people)

Atlanta $307.233 Billion (5.5 million people)

Miami $281.076 Billion (5.8 million people)

Minneapolis $227.793 Billion (3.4 million people)

Detroit $224.726 Billion (4.2 million people)

Phoenix $209.523 Billion (4.4 million people)

Houston is undoubtedly the 4th largest city in the country in terms of economic heft. Even with the help of whole other cities we are still ahead. And we are by far the biggest fish in the south. Way ahead of Miami and ATL

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citykid09

citykid09

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This is most recent. It is for 2013:

2013 Metropolitan Area(MSA) Gross Product, $200 Billion+

New York $1.471 Trillion (19.8 million people)

Los Angeles $826.826 Billion (13.3 million people)

Chicago $590.248 Billion (9.5 million people)

Houston $517.367 Billion (6.3 million people)

Washington DC $463.925 Billion (6.0 million people)

Dallas $447.524 Billion (6.8 million people)

San Francisco $388.272 Billion (4.5 million people)

Philadelphia $383.401 Billion (6.0 million people)

Boston $370.769 Billion (4.6 million people)

Seattle $307.769 Billion (3.8 million people)

Atlanta $307.233 Billion (5.5 million people)

Miami $281.076 Billion (5.8 million people)

Minneapolis $227.793 Billion (3.4 million people)

Detroit $224.726 Billion (4.2 million people)

Phoenix $209.523 Billion (4.4 million people)

Houston is undoubtedly the 4th largest city in the country in terms of economic heft. Even with the help of whole other cities we are still ahead. And we are by far the biggest fish in the south. Way ahead of Miami and ATL

 

When you look at city infrastructure (Rail Transit, streets with curbs and sidewalks, etc), Houston is far behind the others. So when we look at the GDP of the city, why aren't the amenities in Houston on par with the other cities at the top? Where is all of this money diapering to?

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IronTiger

IronTiger

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When you look at city infrastructure (Rail Transit, streets with curbs and sidewalks, etc), Houston is far behind the others. So when we look at the GDP of the city, why aren't the amenities in Houston on par with the other cities at the top? Where is all of this money diapering to?[/quote

"Diapering"?

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Dakota79

Dakota79

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When you look at city infrastructure (Rail Transit, streets with curbs and sidewalks, etc), Houston is far behind the others. So when we look at the GDP of the city, why aren't the amenities in Houston on par with the other cities at the top? Where is all of this money diapering to?[/quote

"Diapering"?

DAKOTA79. It's not going to the roads. A tank is needed to navigate virtually every street. Then, they tear up every good road at the same time so there are no options even for the seasoned Houstonian.

And rail? 8 miles. Whew. That's a big help. Thanks Metro, Culberson, Delay. Etc etc etc.

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toxtethogrady

toxtethogrady

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A cynic would say that these 3 answers above are like the Dutch justifying a tulip bulb.

Personally, I hope all of you are correct but, I fear that you are not. Only time will tell and I really hope you are all correct.

 

At least Houston has three basic industries to support it. Dallas has always been a bit more boom/bust and can't claim dominance in any one industry.

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Luminare

Luminare

Posted
Posted

At least Houston has three basic industries to support it. Dallas has always been a bit more boom/bust and can't claim dominance in any one industry.

 

Which is why we must push for further growth in Hightech industry and especially aerospace. That's our future.

 

....and I'm continuing to this extremely large tangent in discussion -.-

 

Just build this mother f already.

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citykid09

citykid09

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Posted

GDP doesn't have anything to do with a city's amenities, really. An African country could have fantastic GDP but it's going to do jack squat as far as nice things in cities go if it all gets funneled to a fantastically rich warlord.

 

Not speaking of cities in Africa, Speaking of cities in the United States. There seems to be a direct correlation between GDP and city infrastructure in other American cities. But when it comes to Houston it seems that everything must be as cheap as possible or it won't get built. Its seen in all of the recent architecture (box shaped buildings), the power-lines strung about all over the city, the rail road track cross overs in nice areas of the city, etc. I guess Houston's purpose as a city is for people to make money and move on to a nicer city that does not have all of these problems.

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IronTiger

IronTiger

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Posted

Not speaking of cities in Africa, Speaking of cities in the United States. There seems to be a direct correlation between GDP and city infrastructure in other American cities. But when it comes to Houston it seems that everything must be as cheap as possible or it won't get built. Its seen in all of the recent architecture (box shaped buildings), the power-lines strung about all over the city, the rail road track cross overs in nice areas of the city, etc. I guess Houston's purpose as a city is for people to make money and move on to a nicer city that does not have all of these problems.

Most of those complaints seem petty at best or exaggerated at worse. Anyway, despite the (what I feel is) a bad location, this tower doesn't look too bad.

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Subdude

Subdude

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Posted

When you look at city infrastructure (Rail Transit, streets with curbs and sidewalks, etc), Houston is far behind the others. So when we look at the GDP of the city, why aren't the amenities in Houston on par with the other cities at the top? Where is all of this money diapering to?

 

I would agree that infrastructure is Houston's weak spot.  If we want to keep growing at the same pace we're going to have to invest more in infrastructure.  I've said it before, but the street quality in Houston is by far the worst I've encountered in any large city.  We're talking third-world standard here.  

 

I don't know about logistics in any detail, but it does seem crucial to taking advantage of the port and continuing growth.  This means continuing investment in the port, rail lines, roads and the airport.  

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arche_757

arche_757

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I think - from my own personal discussion with people related to the oil business - this boom won't continue forever (obviously); however, the odds that we have another "bust" like what was experienced in the 1980s seems highly unlikely.  If that happens then we're facing a global slowdown the likes of which will harm the economic output to the extent that we won't be singularly worried about Houston... we'll be worried about the national economy as a whole.

 

Taking a smaller recession or slow down in the energy business (similar to what happened post-Enron) we'll see other sectors continue on with business as usual.  The 1990s and early 2000s saw rapid growth in the TMC complex, expansion in Houston's international ties due to the shipping industry and growth at the Port of Houston.

 

The boom - at least in terms of commercial construction is slowing (you can tell by the dwindling number of proposals trickling down right now), but the uptick in residential, and residential-service construction is yet to really start.  Where are the new schools, hospitals, services, retail?  Aside from growth inside the Loop in big mixed-use projects and a few other locations (The Woodlands, City Center etc) this area has yet to really take off elsewhere in the Houston region.

 

And to those who keep talking about the oil business, you fail to recall the massive port complex we have just east of Downtown.  Its there.  It isn't going away, it will only grow in size, scope, scale.  Global shipping is an immense industry.  Houston is positioned very well to continue to reap the rewards of forward thinking and a huge port industrial complex that makes us a much different city from places like Dallas and Atlanta.

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IronTiger

IronTiger

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Posted

I think the bad infrastructure thing is largely overstated. Potholes are bad, but isn't it true that repairs slowed under Parker, instead of fixing it?

Above ground wiring is kind of unsightly, but it's much more subdued than other countries that this comparison comes from and is much better working order.

Finally, water and sewer lines seem to be decent, it's not like Detroit where there are literally dozens of pipe breaks everywhere.

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HoustonMidtown

HoustonMidtown

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I think the bad infrastructure thing is largely overstated. Potholes are bad, but isn't it true that repairs slowed under Parker, instead of fixing it?

Above ground wiring is kind of unsightly, but it's much more subdued than other countries that this comparison comes from and is much better working order.

Finally, water and sewer lines seem to be decent, it's not like Detroit where there are literally dozens of pipe breaks everywhere.Water 

 

Water lines could use some work...

 

http://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/science-environment/article/Texas-losing-billions-of-gallons-to-annual-water-5086902.php

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